I may be wrong, but!!!!

[outofthebox]

Barbaro was undefeated going into last years Derby, but wasn't he bascically not fast enough "Beyer wise" going into the Derby. I don't think he ever ventured into the 100 beyer pre Derby. I read somewhere that the average fig for the Derby is something like 102 up. I think only Curlin and Street Sense have ever equaled that fig, and they were both attained off perfect trips imo..Who is ready to achieve a lifetime "top", and capture the roses?

Barbaro ran a 103 beyer in the Florida Derby. He was plenty fast and the clockers at Churchill had him the horse to beat on derby week. Barbaro only had 1 race on a fast track in his life before the derby and it was that 103.

[outofthebox]

Thanks for responding!

[Downthestretch55]

Outofthebox,
I don't have the stats in front of me so I'm only talking from recollections,
a better comparison might be War Emblem (chips and all) or, dare I mention Monarchos? It would also be interesting to compare Real Quiet's Beyers and Smaty Jones with Funny Cide.
For sure, someone on this board will do the research and hopefully put it up.

[hockey2315]

The average fig for the Derby is usually between 105-110. . . There are probably a handful of horses that look like they have the cabapility to run that kind of number. . . I don't have my PPs with me but I think there are nine horses going to the derby who have run a 100 or better this year. . .

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

The average fig for the Derby is usually between 105-110. . . There are probably a handful of horses that look like they have the cabapility to run that kind of number. . . I don't have my PPs with me but I think there are nine horses going to the derby who have run a 100 or better this year. . .

Yeah, there are nine going in but only one over 103 which is extremely soft historically.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by outofthebox

I read somewhere that the average fig for the Derby is something like 102 up. I think only Curlin and Street Sense have ever equaled that fig.

For what its worth:
Circular Quay (Louisiana Derby), Any Given Saturday (Tampa Bay Derby), and Liquidity (Sham) have also all posted a 102.
Hard Spun and Great Hunter have topped out at 101.

[outofthebox]

Originally Posted by Cardus

What do you mean by "102 up?" Is that the average Derby Beyer Speed Figure, or the average last race pre-Derby figure by the eventual winner?

The average BSF over the last decade or so is a little higher. I do not have my Progressive Handicapping book with me, but I recall the Derby Beyer coming in around 106 or 107 for the last 10 years or so. It might even be a couple of ticks higher, actually.

Hockey seems to have the # at 105-110 as the average Derby #, not the last fig of the derby winner.

[outofthebox]

Curlin 103
Liquidity 102
Circular Quay 102
Street Sense 102
Any Given Sat 102
these were all at two turns...

[Downthestretch55]

Originally Posted by Cardus

I think that he is right. Off the top of my head, I think these were the last 10 winners' BSFs:
Silver Charm 115
Real Quiet 107
Charismatic 108
Fusiachi Pegasus 108
Monarchos 116
War Emblem 114
Funny Cide 109
Smarty Jones 107
Giacomo 67 (just kidding!) 100
Barbaro 112

These numbers, if correct, produce a 110 average.

Thanks for the numbers.
I was too involved in something else to look them up.
On a side note, Beyers are IMHO way too subjective to hang your hat on.
I know more than a few that have made bets based on them and lost big.
The flaw is "track variant".
I'd rather look at training cycles and race day track conditions compared to similar running on like surfaces.
This year, I'm looking "long shot".

[XIIPointStables]

Do we care that AGS and Street Sense were the only two horses to break triple digits Beyer-wise as 2-year-olds in the prospective field?

And I like that face that AGS has at least bettered it once here as a 3-year-old.

More stupid Derby Data I guess.

[Downthestretch55]

Originally Posted by XIIPointStables

Do we care that AGS and Street Sense were the only two horses to break triple digits Beyer-wise as 2-year-olds in the prospective field?

And I like that face that AGS has at least bettered it once here as a 3-year-old.

More stupid Derby Data I guess.

Not "stupid Derby Data" at all. Everyone is looking for an angle.
I just don't put too much faith in BSF's. Just me I guess.
There are other things to look for before you lay your dollars down.
Training cycles and track conditions are good places to start. If you have access to the grooms on the backstretch, excercise riders, or honest clockers, you'll be way ahead than Beyers figs. Horses don't read 'em.
If you want to see what a horse is going to do, compare the condition of the surface last run on with the condition on race day, and how the horse trained up to it. Just my humble opinion.
Good racin' luck.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by Cardus

Giacomo 67 (just kidding!) 100

Giacomo wasn't the greatest Derby winner ever, but please don't compare him to Sutra.