Quote from Jeremy Plonk

[whodey17]

"If STORMELLO doesn't open up 2-3 lengths down the backstretch on this field on Derby Day, I'll be sorely disappointed. Brash-talking Bill Currin wants to stick it to 'the man' (aka the eastern bias). Nothing talks trash in racing like running them off their feet early and flopping the tail at them late. And, have you cracked open a set of PPs on this bunch? Who the heck is going to challenge him up front? Talk of softening his early speed and taking back off the pace seems awfully misguided, and perhaps a proverbial smoke screen. That Currin is crafty."

- JEREMY PLONK of The HorsePlayer Magazine

[nasalstrip]

You may be correct. If they go 47+ and 1:12+ Stormello might steal the race.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by nasalstrip

You may be correct. If they go 47+ and 1:12+ Stormello might steal the race.

While I agree that Stormello is a live longshot, I don't think he is good enough to actually win the race, there are about 4 horses that are currently close to 6-7 lengths better then him right now. BUT, he is a very live longshot. I actually think those works are to get him to actually rate on the lead, he has natural gate speed so those two nutty works are to get him get out there and relax. Doubt he can win, but a great 2nd,3rd, 4th play in my opinion

[hockey2315]

I just can't see this horse rating or getting soft enough fractions for him to win. I don't think the pace will be too fast, but the presence of Teufelsburg should be enough to get Stormello going too fast for him to stay 10F. Maybe he'd have a chance if Currin hadn't taken this poor horse back and forth across the country twice for two taxing races. . .

[Scurlogue Champ]

I think a bunch of them will send and the pace will be hot. This "taking back" stuff is all smoke and mirrors.

Regardless of what the trainers say, a high percentage of those dumb jocks will send early and think they can steal it. This will start by one of them doing it (Hard Spun) and most all of the rest will follow suit like dominoes..

"I wanted to get him in position...." "didn't want to lose ground..."

Some closer is going to win.

survey says....Circular Quay

[Dunbar]

I don't see the pace as fast as recent years. There aren't any Keyed Entrys or Sinister Ministers in this bunch. Teufelsberg? The 2 races before the ultra leisurely BlueGrass show Teufelsberg running 47.8 halves.

Stormello may indeed find himself on the lead without much company. If they try to rate Stormello, I expect a very leisurely pace.

Could be wrong, of course!

--Dunbar

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by whodey17

"If STORMELLO doesn't open up 2-3 lengths down the backstretch on this field on Derby Day, I'll be sorely disappointed. Brash-talking Bill Currin wants to stick it to 'the man' (aka the eastern bias). Nothing talks trash in racing like running them off their feet early and flopping the tail at them late. And, have you cracked open a set of PPs on this bunch? Who the heck is going to challenge him up front? Talk of softening his early speed and taking back off the pace seems awfully misguided, and perhaps a proverbial smoke screen. That Currin is crafty."

- JEREMY PLONK of The HorsePlayer Magazine

Teuflesberg will be out for the lead and Hard Spun will take it if nobody wants it. Then you've got a whole slew of stalkers that'll ensure a formidable pace. I think Plonk is bugging out.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by BOMBTHREAT

My opinion is the pace will be a hot one. As of last week the projected field had the most E7 E8 (Bris) types since the year Giacomo won. Should be a great betting derby.

I don't really agree...

I can see this being a slower-paced race than most people are anticipating. What if Teuflesberg doesn't get in (it's unlikely that he does at this point)? Then what? That leaves horses like Stormello, Cobalt Blue and maybe even Liquidity to set the pace... I think the winner this year will come from a horse with some tactical speed rather than a closer type. That leaves horses like Any Given Saturday, Hard Spun, Scat Daddy, Cowtown Cat, Nobiz and Curlin... the deep closers may have a tough time.

[Scurlogue Champ]

I think everyone can see it as being a moderate paced race. And this will be cemented by quotes from the connections talking about "taking back," and "finding his spot."

I don't believe it for one minute though.

Stormello, Hard Spun, and Teuflesburg might be the ones up front early. But I think more than a few others will press them on when they panic. 8 horses can't all get the same position.

"I think we'll lay about 2 or 3 off of them and let him get a good position."

They all want this in my opinion, and amongst the jockeying for this position they will pop off a 45-47 half and continue on from there.

[clydewine]

[quote=whodey17]"If STORMELLO doesn't open up 2-3 lengths down the backstretch on this field on Derby Day, I'll be sorely disappointed. Brash-talking Bill Currin wants to stick it to 'the man' (aka the eastern bias). Nothing talks trash in racing like running them off their feet early and flopping the tail at them late. And, have you cracked open a set of PPs on this bunch? Who the heck is going to challenge him up front? Talk of softening his early speed and taking back off the pace seems awfully misguided, and perhaps a proverbial smoke screen. That Currin is crafty."
A Few things. 1. the break, Teuf could easily break bad again, so no so teuf is a no factor. 2. AGS will be wid again. 3. Great hunter will probably steady more than once. Hard Spun and Nobiz will be right near Storm. Colbalt and Liquid will be done before final turn. 2nd group Scat, Curlin, Street and Cowtown. And Then the closers. Sam P is a no factor. Also Hard Spun just ran a 57and small change.

[clydewine]

Originally Posted by nasalstrip

You may be correct. If they go 47+ and 1:12+ Stormello might steal the race.

Post positions will tell. And the pace will be sharp. Bunch of these horses are in good form, including Storm. But so is Tiago, Scat, SS and Curlin. I'll take Tiago over Quay, But they still have to get by SS. And if SS can get inside on the final turn. They won't pass him.