Only one new shooter has a prayer in the Preakness....

[The Indomitable DrugS]

And his trainer is on the fence between a start in the Preakness, or a start in the Barbaro stakes on the undercard.

Chelokee looks like an improving horse at least. Had he run in the Kentucky Derby, he'd have been the only starter in the race to fit the following pattern.


Trend: Must meet all of the following in career start #2.

* Start must come between Sep 20th-through-Nov 25th

* Must win the race by a margin of five lengths or more.

* Must run a Beyer figure of 85 or better.

* Race must be at a distance of 7 furlongs or further.


2003: Only Funny Cide fit the profile. He won and paid $27.60

2004: Two horses fit the profile. They being Smarty Jones and Lion Heart. They ran 1st and 2nd, at odds of 4/1 and 5/1 respectively, and made up a $65.20 exacta.

2005: Two horses fit the profile. They being 50/1 shot Giacomo and 22/1 shot High Limit. Giacomo won and paid $102.60

2006: Two horses fit the profile. They being Barbaro and Bluegrass Cat. They ran 1st and 2nd. The exacta paid $587.00

2007: No Derby starter fit the profile. Combined record of 7-4-2-0

More than having a cooky trend in his corner, Chelokee has improved with each start this year, and an arguement could be made that he'd have been right there in the Fla Derby, had he not been shut off.

However, a horse likely to improve or not, the Florida Derby form looks worse after Saturday, and this horse needs marked improvement to contend with the top three. Being trained by Matz, he'll also likely suck up some sentimental money as well.

A new shooter has finished either first or second in 6 of the 7 runnings of the Preakness this decade....I would be shocked if anyone other than Chelokee manages to do so this year...and I highly doubt he will do so either.

[randallscott35]

I think he's going in an undercard race on the day.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

The Barbaro stakes is the undercard race.

Last I heard, "a decision will be made later in the week."

[lemoncrush]

Whichever race he goes in, he'll be coming off a 7 week layoff. The preakness is nowhere near as grueling as the Derby, but I imagine that would be the reason why Matz would take the lesser route.
I completely think that Chelokee has a chance to be competitive in the Preakeness. Despite Scat Daddy and Stormello runnning poorly in the Kentucky Derby, I still don't discount Chelokee's gutsy effort on Florida Derby day.

[ARyan]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

And his trainer is on the fence between a start in the Preakness, or a start in the Barbaro stakes on the undercard.

Chelokee looks like an improving horse at least. Had he run in the Kentucky Derby, he'd have been the only starter in the race to fit the following pattern.


Trend: Must meet all of the following in career start #2.

* Start must come between Sep 20th-through-Nov 25th

* Must win the race by a margin of five lengths or more.

* Must run a Beyer figure of 85 or better.

* Race must be at a distance of 7 furlongs or further.


2003: Only Funny Cide fit the profile. He won and paid $27.60

2004: Two horses fit the profile. They being Smarty Jones and Lion Heart. They ran 1st and 2nd, at odds of 4/1 and 5/1 respectively, and made up a $65.20 exacta.

2005: Two horses fit the profile. They being 50/1 shot Giacomo and 22/1 shot High Limit. Giacomo won and paid $102.60

2006: Two horses fit the profile. They being Barbaro and Bluegrass Cat. They ran 1st and 2nd. The exacta paid $587.00

2007: No Derby starter fit the profile. Combined record of 7-4-2-0

More than having a cooky trend in his corner, Chelokee has improved with each start this year, and an arguement could be made that he'd have been right there in the Fla Derby, had he not been shut off.

However, a horse likely to improve or not, the Florida Derby form looks worse after Saturday, and this horse needs marked improvement to contend with the top three. Being trained by Matz, he'll also likely suck up some sentimental money as well.

A new shooter has finished either first or second in 6 of the 7 runnings of the Preakness this decade....I would be shocked if anyone other than Chelokee manages to do so this year...and I highly doubt he will do so either.

How about this DrugS...

I 100% agree with what you said.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

It would make a nice story if he wins the first running of the Barbaro stakes, on Preakness day at Pimlico, with Edgar Prado up.

Probably a nicer story than it will make if he runs 4th beaten 6 1/2.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ARyan

How about this DrugS...

I 100% agree with what you said.

Perhaps I should reevalute what I said I guess.....

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

Whichever race he goes in, he'll be coming off a 7 week layoff. The preakness is nowhere near as grueling as the Derby, but I imagine that would be the reason why Matz would take the lesser route.
I completely think that Chelokee has a chance to be competitive in the Preakeness. Despite Scat Daddy and Stormello runnning poorly in the Kentucky Derby, I still don't discount Chelokee's gutsy effort on Florida Derby day.

I think he'll go the Sarava route and use the Barbaro as a stepping stone to the Belmont.

[ARyan]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Perhaps I should reevalute what I said I guess.....

What do you think I am doing?

[ARyan]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Perhaps I should reevalute what I said I guess.....

Honestly, I think that whole post is well thought out, well backed up, and right on the money.

I couldn't have even said it 50% as well.

[Danzig]

as drugs said, you have to wonder about chelokee after seeing how scat daddy ran in the derby. of course there is every possibility that the distance was just too much for daddy--but certainly there is a question mark or two there.
if chelokee is doing well, what the heck-run him in the preakness. i don't think street sense is unbeatable--he's at 50% lifetime...why not take the shot?

[miraja2]

DrugS makes some good points, and this colt's sire (although best known as a sprinter) turned in a nice performance in the '93 Preakness.....but come on DrugS....please bring back Brian Billick!!!

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Spiro T. Agnew is here to stay.

Not only, like Billick, does he honor CJ and his home city of Baltimore....but, compared to our current VP, he is a man of incredible honesty and integrity.

Plus he's greek....and really---the Baltimore-Greek connection cinched it up.

[the_fat_man]

PROFESSIONAL suckup horses always have a chance to win.

Good luck with this one.

We're blessed this year with a 3 year old SUCKUP TROIKA

Chelokee
Bold Start
Cowtown Cat

Sucking up in a race near you.

[Cajungator26]

This was mentioned to me yesterday and it's kind of a good point...

IF Chelokee was sitting on his best race, they would not even be considering the Barbaro over the Preakness.

With that said, I think he's more likely a go in the Barbaro than the Preakness anyway.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I think he's more likely to go in the Preakness....

But, in horse racing, with lowered expectations come lowered results...though that's espeically true in the claiming game.

Chelokee will be a clear-cut 4th choice in the betting in the Preakness, Matz is a fan of going into a race with lots of time between starts, and as much as Matz would love to win the 1st running of the Barbaro Stakes with Prado up, one year after what happened last year....we all know how hard to resist it is running in a Classic, when you're the 4th choice in the betting, and the clear-cut favorite of the "new shooters."

[Cajungator26]

By RICHARD ROSENBLATT
AP Racing Writer

NEW YORK - Curlin will have another go at Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense in the Preakness.

Trainer Steve Asmussen said Thursday that his third-place finisher in last week's Derby came out of the race in good shape and is set for the second leg of the Triple Crown on May 19.

"The only hesitation was waiting for him to go back to the track" after his first defeat, Asmussen said during a conference call. "I was curious where he would be mentally."

Curlin went for a one-mile jog at Churchill Downs on Wednesday. Asmussen thought his lightly raced colt might be nervous on his first trip back to the track.

"He's not shown any indication of that," Asmussen said. "His appetite has stayed good. He's a very big, strong horse and we're very pleased how he came out of race physically. He was very relaxed going to the track, and I just wanted to make sure it was still him."

Curlin won his first three starts by a combined 28 ½ lengths, and went off as the 5-1 second choice in the Derby behind Street Sense after being installed as the morning line favorite for the 1 ¼-mile Classic just days before. Robby Albarado will again be aboard the colt.

Curlin finished 5 ¾ lengths behind runner-up Hard Spun and eight lengths back of Street Sense.

"I don't think Curlin could have come out in any better shape," Asmussen said. "And I think he is capable at this level."

Hard Spun also returns for the 1 3/16-mile Preakness, along with 17th-place finisher Teuflesberg.

Others Preakness probables include C P West, King of the Roxy, Florida-bred Xchanger, Flying First Class or Florida-bred Starbase (both trained by D. Wayne Lukas) and Mint Slewlep. There is a slight chance both Flying First Class and Starbase could run.

Chelokee, handled by Barbaro's trainer Michael Matz, is possible but more likely to run on the Preakness undercard in the Barbaro Stakes. The race, formerly known as the Sir Barton, was renamed after Derby winner Barbaro was euthanized in January following complications from his breakdown at the start of last year's Preakness.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Like I said...winning the 1st running of the Barbaro stakes, on the Preakness undercard, one year after what happened last year....I'm sure that would mean MUCH more to Matz than winning any other Non-Graded Stake that's ever been run in his lifetime...

But, when it comes time to make that final decision, it's always hard to not run the 4th choice in the betting in any Classic race.

I know the possiblity of preping for the Belmont will be in their mind, but Chelokee is a son of Champion sprinter Cherokee Run...who was 2nd himself in the Preakness...and he's probably a better fit for the Preakness than the Belmont.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by Danzig

as drugs said, you have to wonder about chelokee after seeing how scat daddy ran in the derby. of course there is every possibility that the distance was just too much for daddy--but certainly there is a question mark or two there.
if chelokee is doing well, what the heck-run him in the preakness. i don't think street sense is unbeatable--he's at 50% lifetime...why not take the shot?

and this year's Preakness is not being run at Churchill Downs last I checked.

I am not so sure Flying First Class doesn't have a shot. He seems to be coming around pretty nicely.