Preakness - I don't think I like anyone

[ateamstupid]

I think that Street Sense and Hard Spun are both major bounce candidates coming off those big efforts in two weeks. I think that Curlin may have been thrown to the wolves one too many times. I think that King of the Roxy and Flying First Class max out at eight furlongs. I think that Mint Slewlep and C.P. West are too slow. I think that Xchanger will be in over his head. I think that Matz is being too wishy-washy with Chelokee.

I don't remember a TC race in which I didn't like ANYONE.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I think that Street Sense and Hard Spun are both major bounce candidates coming off those big efforts in two weeks. I think that Curlin may have been thrown to the wolves one too many times. I think that King of the Roxy and Flying First Class max out at eight furlongs. I think that Mint Slewlep and C.P. West are too slow. I think that Xchanger will be in over his head. I think that Matz is being too wishy-washy with Chelokee.

I don't remember a TC race in which I didn't like ANYONE.

you sound like a "local" handicapper from my area

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I think that Street Sense and Hard Spun are both major bounce candidates coming off those big efforts in two weeks. I think that Curlin may have been thrown to the wolves one too many times. I think that King of the Roxy and Flying First Class max out at eight furlongs. I think that Mint Slewlep and C.P. West are too slow. I think that Xchanger will be in over his head. I think that Matz is being too wishy-washy with Chelokee.

I don't remember a TC race in which I didn't like ANYONE.

just remember, somebody has to win. i don't see a big let down from the top two from the derby, if they do drop a bit, i think they are still above the others.

[timmgirvan]

If SS had the perfect trip as eveybody says, and he jogged a mile the next day...I humbly suggest he won't bounce. the ones who got traffic trips or were jostled a bit might be the bounce candidates.

[tycharles01]

How cant you like Hard Spun?? Less Distance will be good for him as well as the track

Hope can get some decent odds on him tho

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by tycharles01

How cant you like Hard Spun?? Less Distance will be good for him as well as the track

Hope can get some decent odds on him tho

Didn't like how wobbly he looked in the stretch of the Derby and he'll have plenty of company on the front end this time.

[hi_im_god]

both the top 2 finishers in the derby should have plenty of gas left after what would historically have been a light 3yo campaign up to the derby.

of the 2 i have more questions about how street sense runs outside of churchill than i do hard spuns ability to carry his speed against a smaller field in the preakness.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Didn't like how wobbly he looked in the stretch of the Derby and he'll have plenty of company on the front end this time.

Doesn't the defection of Tberg change that a little, though? Not to mention the fact that HS set pretty decent fractions at the beginning of the Derby and still hung on at the end. . .

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Doesn't the defection of Tberg change that a little, though? Not to mention the fact that HS set pretty decent fractions at the beginning of the Derby and still hung on at the end. . .

Yeah, I was very impressed with Hard Spun's race in the Derby, which is why I think it'll be hard for him to duplicate it on two weeks' rest with Flying First Class and Xchanger pressuring him every step of the way. I'd much rather see him just off the lead, but either way, I just get the feeling that his Derby race was really grueling. I could be wrong, but we'll see.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I think that Street Sense and Hard Spun are both major bounce candidates coming off those big efforts in two weeks. I think that Curlin may have been thrown to the wolves one too many times. I think that King of the Roxy and Flying First Class max out at eight furlongs. I think that Mint Slewlep and C.P. West are too slow. I think that Xchanger will be in over his head. I think that Matz is being too wishy-washy with Chelokee.

I don't remember a TC race in which I didn't like ANYONE.

I feel the exact same way about the race as you do. One additional factor is that Street Sense may regress by a couple of lengths just based on the fact that the race is not at Churchill. He seems to move way up at Churchill. I think that the top 3 horses are vulnerable but I don't see a legitimate alternative.

[letswastemoney]

time to hit the All button!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I feel the exact same way about the race as you do. One additional factor is that Street Sense may regress by a couple of lengths just based on the fact that the race is not at Churchill. He seems to move way up at Churchill. I think that the top 3 horses are vulnerable but I don't see a legitimate alternative.

Richi,

Surprised to hear the above from you. And totally surprised that so many are taking this 'Churchill specialist' view of the Derby winner...

His record:

Four wins on three different tracks (CD; TBD; AP);

2nd a nose in the BG, 3rd by 1.75L to Great Hunter/Circular Quay in Breeders' Futurity on Poly at KEE where both times he gawked at the grandstand off the turn;

Second by 4L in his 6f career debut from the 9 hole while wide throughout and 3rd in the slop by 1.75L in the AP-WAS Futurity from the 9 hole while wide...

Importantly, unlike 'modern' trainers, Nafzger doesn't care about winning every start.. He brought this colt along with the intention of winning 2 races: The BC Juvenile and the Kentucky Derby. How'd that work out? Nafzger had this horse ready to fire best shots wherever these races were going to be run. It is incidental that the BC was at Churchill last year. He would have won the Juvenile wherever it was run. Getting horses' ready for a supreme effort is what he has always done best. But it's also a negative as I'll address below.

Use Unbridled as the model for this discussion both positive and negative. Was the 1990 Breeders' Cup at Churchill? No.. It was at Belmont and that didn't seem to bother Unbridled who had won the Derby easily by 3+ lengths. On the way to the Derby he had been beaten by Shot Gun Scott, twice; Smelly; Summer Squall; Land Rush, and several others in the Blue Grass, Tropical Park Derby, In Reality and Canterbury Juvenile, among others.

(And Unshaded was pointed for the Travers when Nafzger missed the Derby with him saying, "Well, we'll just have to go to New York and paint that canoe.")

It's not a question of Street Sense just being better at Churchill than anywhere else. What is worrisome is the fact that Nafzger really doesn't think about what is upcoming post-Derby. Unbridled was beaten 4L in the Preakness by Summer Squall, and really was empty by the time they reached Belmont. If Street Sense gets beat at Baltimore, it will be because as Nafzger admits, he really had no plan for him beyond the first Saturday in May and his tank may have been emptied in the Derby. As he says, he got him ready for Derby, and now "It's up to the horse."

[AeWingnut]

I really don't think that you can blame anyone for not pointing toward the Preakness. The Ky Derby is the goal. I don't know how many starts Unbridled had before the Derby. Street Sense's two starts was a big deal because it's been 50 yrs or something since anyone had won with less than 3. Historically, horses that are cranked up for the Derby are still cranked up for the Preakness. The majority, in recent times have cruised in the Preakness.

I imagine Hard Spun will be 9/5 and Street Sense 2-1. Can't see Curlin worse than 4-1. I think Curlin might be ready to throw in a clunker. The rule, normally is 3 and out. That's why I left him off my Derby tri

Street Sense may have avoided the rail at Keeneland because it wasn't the place to be. Don't know what will be the strategy in Baltimore. Do you think someone will sit on the rail just to make SS go around? Churchill or Pimlico - if they're bunched up on the turn, he's going to blow by 'em like they're sitting still.

[Bigsmc]

Larry Jones told ATRAB that Hard Spun was given the 6 weeks off before the Derby with the grind of the Triple Crown in mind. He also said his horse was doing better after the Derby than before (not sure if that is trainer BS, but why lie?). He also said they would not send and look for a stalking trip similar to his TP race.

I am looking for a Tampa Bay Derby'esque battle next Sat. between Hard Spun (playing the roll of AGS) and Street Sense. The only wild card is Curlin, the others are not fast enough.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

I really don't think that you can blame anyone for not pointing toward the Preakness. The Ky Derby is the goal. I don't know how many starts Unbridled had before the Derby. Street Sense's two starts was a big deal because it's been 50 yrs or something since anyone had won with less than 3. Historically, horses that are cranked up for the Derby are still cranked up for the Preakness. The majority, in recent times have cruised in the Preakness.

I imagine Hard Spun will be 9/5 and Street Sense 2-1. Can't see Curlin worse than 4-1. I think Curlin might be ready to throw in a clunker. The rule, normally is 3 and out. That's why I left him off my Derby tri

Street Sense may have avoided the rail at Keeneland because it wasn't the place to be. Don't know what will be the strategy in Baltimore. Do you think someone will sit on the rail just to make SS go around? Churchill or Pimlico - if they're bunched up on the turn, he's going to blow by 'em like they're sitting still.

There's no way in hell Hard Spun will be a shorter price than Street Sense..

About the rail thing though.. That's another thing that concerns me about Street Sense in the Preakness. Since I've been watching Borel, I've noticed that he's great at sneaking up the rail and mediocre at best at everything else. In the past few weeks alone, I've seen him move way too early on about four different horses when the rail wasn't available. You can get away with an early move if you're on the wood.. Outside.. Not so much.

[JDank34]

Everyone keeps saying "Hard Spun has a much better shot because the Preakness is shorter"....well it is 1/16th shorter...does anyone remember where SS and HS were in relation to each other at the 1/16th pole at CD in the Derby? I do. Also, the Preakness pace will seem to me to be quicker solely with the addition of FFC and Xchanger.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

The three "left overs" from the Derby look really solid...tough to make a case for the others. A SS/HS/CURL box looks the ticket!

[Suffolk Shippers]

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

The three "left overs" from the Derby look really solid...tough to make a case for the others. A SS/HS/CURL box looks the ticket!

And will pay about $12 for every $1

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Maybe less

Good morning!
"Better than a sharp stick in the eye!!!"

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I feel the exact same way about the race as you do. One additional factor is that Street Sense may regress by a couple of lengths just based on the fact that the race is not at Churchill. He seems to move way up at Churchill. I think that the top 3 horses are vulnerable but I don't see a legitimate alternative.

How can the top three be vulnerable if there are no legitimate alternatives?
Doesn't that kinda make them invulnerable?