Betting The Preakness

[justindew]

For starters, I'm going to eliminate Hard Spun and Curlin from my exacta tickets. Even though the Derby forced me to throw the history books in the trash, I'm still hanging on to my "Solid Losing Effort In The Derby=Overbet in Defeat In the Preakness" angle. (See Imperialism, Closing Argument, Medaglia D' Oro, and others). I also think Curlin needs a rest.

Second, I think Street Sense will win. I know that Hard Spun and Curlin will get major support at the windows, but I can't see Street Sense going off any higher than 6-5. Maybe I'm way off base, but that's what I'm thinking. So unless I decide to bet serious cash on Street Sense to win, I have to hit the exacta if I want a nice payday.

Here's the problem. I don't really like any of the other contenders. King of the Roxy ran his final 1/8 at Santa Anita in almost 14 seconds. Xchanger has never run well routing against top competition. I'm not playing Mint Slewlip. Flying First Class, on paper, appears to be a sprinter. Circular Quay's running style does not exactly scream "Pimlico!" There's something about CP West that intrigues me, but he also has yet to do anything around two turns.

Where does that leave me?

I guess it leaves me with a win bet on Street Sense. How boring.

I am pretty confident the same top 3 in the derby will be the top 3 in the Preakness. I think the order will change to Curlin, Street Sense, Hard Spun, but I can't see any other horse finishing ahead of them. Flying First Class is interesting but I don't know if he wants to go that far.


I really think Curlin's Derby was better than people think.

[sumitas]

Street Sense to win over the 2 longest shots on the board; or a show bet on the longest shot.

Street Sense a strong single in pick 3 and 4 wagers.

[justindew]

I was thinking about the Pick 4. Let's see how the card looks.

[blackthroatedwind]

I doubt I will use anyone besides Street Sense and Hard Spun in the Pick-4.

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by justindew

For starters, I'm going to eliminate Hard Spun and Curlin from my exacta tickets. Even though the Derby forced me to throw the history books in the trash, I'm still hanging on to my "Solid Losing Effort In The Derby=Overbet in Defeat In the Preakness" angle. (See Imperialism, Closing Argument, Medaglia D' Oro, and others). I also think Curlin needs a rest.

Second, I think Street Sense will win. I know that Hard Spun and Curlin will get major support at the windows, but I can't see Street Sense going off any higher than 6-5. Maybe I'm way off base, but that's what I'm thinking. So unless I decide to bet serious cash on Street Sense to win, I have to hit the exacta if I want a nice payday.

Here's the problem. I don't really like any of the other contenders. King of the Roxy ran his final 1/8 at Santa Anita in almost 14 seconds. Xchanger has never run well routing against top competition. I'm not playing Mint Slewlip. Flying First Class, on paper, appears to be a sprinter. Circular Quay's running style does not exactly scream "Pimlico!" There's something about CP West that intrigues me, but he also has yet to do anything around two turns.

Where does that leave me?

I guess it leaves me with a win bet on Street Sense. How boring.

Did he even run in the Preakness?? I agree with you about this race being so vanilla. Chalk City. Great race to narrow down to 1-2 horses for multi race wagers though.

[justindew]

Closing Argument ran 9th at 7-1.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by Cardus

The Pick 3 of Sky Conqueror/ Street Sense/ Mustincludeme paid $531.

A Pick 3/ Pick 4 ticket seems like the way to go, especially if you think that one of the "big 3" will win.

Yeah, but he was 9/2 in the derby... he'll be 1/1 at best in the Preakness.. in a much smaller field.

[tycharles01]

ML Odds should be 5/2 or 2/1 on SS with hiim at 7/5 or even at post.

Curlin probably gets 9/2 or 3/1 at post

Hard Spun 3rd choice somewhere close to 3/1 or 4/1


It should be a decent betting race beside Street Sense.

[Suffolk Shippers]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

Street Sense a strong single in pick 3 and 4 wagers.

That's how I'm playing it. The Preakness looks formful and I imagine the tri might pay $12/$1 wagered, so I'll be looking for big prices in the pick 4 and throwing the single on Street Sense in the Preakness leg.

[Suffolk Shippers]

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

Yeah, but he was 9/2 in the derby... he'll be 1/1 at best in the Preakness.. in a much smaller field.

Well said, 9/2 was a huge gift on him in the Derby, also a price that will never be seen on him again in all likelyhood.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by justindew

For starters, I'm going to eliminate Hard Spun and Curlin from my exacta tickets. Even though the Derby forced me to throw the history books in the trash, I'm still hanging on to my "Solid Losing Effort In The Derby=Overbet in Defeat In the Preakness" angle. (See Imperialism, Closing Argument, Medaglia D' Oro, and others). I also think Curlin needs a rest.

Second, I think Street Sense will win. I know that Hard Spun and Curlin will get major support at the windows, but I can't see Street Sense going off any higher than 6-5. Maybe I'm way off base, but that's what I'm thinking. So unless I decide to bet serious cash on Street Sense to win, I have to hit the exacta if I want a nice payday.

Here's the problem. I don't really like any of the other contenders. King of the Roxy ran his final 1/8 at Santa Anita in almost 14 seconds. Xchanger has never run well routing against top competition. I'm not playing Mint Slewlip. Flying First Class, on paper, appears to be a sprinter. Circular Quay's running style does not exactly scream "Pimlico!" There's something about CP West that intrigues me, but he also has yet to do anything around two turns.

Where does that leave me?

I guess it leaves me with a win bet on Street Sense. How boring.

Let me ask you this.
You say "I'm throwing out Hard Spun and Curlin" then say "I don't really like any of the other contenders." That is flat out contradictory. If you don't like any of the other contenders, by default you like Hard Spun and/or Curlin to finish 2nd. There's been PLENTY of occasions where the exacta was the same group as the Derby, for recent example 1998 (Real Quiet-V Gallop) and 1997 trifecta (Silver Charm over Free House and the Captain). If that's what you think will happen, then play it!!!

[slotdirt]

Didn't Smarty-Lion Heart go 1-2 in both?

[slotdirt]

Nevermind, Lion Heart was 4th, though nobody was in the same ballpark as Smarty Jones that day.

[justindew]

Philcski,

I'm not playing Hard Spun or Curlin for a couple of reasons.

1) I think Street Sense will win.
2) An exacta with SS over HS and Curlin won't pay anything.
3) Even though my devotion to historical trends cost me in the Derby, I'm sticking with what I have learned over the years in the Preakness. One of the things I have learned is that horses who run big in defeat in the Derby seem to regress in the Preakness. Or at the very least, the don't run as well as the betting public expects. The horse who best fits this in this spot is Hard Spun.
4) Like I said, I think Curlin needs a rest. He's done a lot this spring.

Maybe a better way of saying "run big in defeat in the Derby" would be to say "outrun their odds in the Derby."

Final point: Saying I don't like Hard Spun and Curlin has more to do with my historical observation, and less to do with their talent level. My thoughts on the others are more based on basic handicapping.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Didn't Smarty-Lion Heart go 1-2 in both?

nope. rock hard ten finished a diiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii istant 2nd, with Lion Heart 4th.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Didn't Smarty-Lion Heart go 1-2 in both?

No... Rock Hard Ten was second.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by justindew

Philcski,

I'm not playing Hard Spun or Curlin for a couple of reasons.

1) I think Street Sense will win.
2) An exacta with SS over HS and Curlin won't pay anything.
3) Even though my devotion to historical trends cost me in the Derby, I'm sticking with what I have learned over the years in the Preakness. One of the things I have learned is that horses who run big in defeat in the Derby seem to regress in the Preakness. Or at the very least, the don't run as well as the betting public expects. The horse who best fits this in this spot is Hard Spun.
4) Like I said, I think Curlin needs a rest. He's done a lot this spring.

Maybe a better way of saying "run big in defeat in the Derby" would be to say "outrun their odds in the Derby."

Final point: Saying I don't like Hard Spun and Curlin has more to do with my historical observation, and less to do with their talent level. My thoughts on the others are more based on basic handicapping.

Justin, why do you think that 4 starts is a lot? Was this colt unsound before they started him or something?

[tycharles01]

If you think its a SS-Hard Spun Exacta u just hit it HARD

Why put 500 win on a 6/5 horse

When you can put 500 on a cold exacta that might pay 4/1??? especially if you are confident