Will Gomez ruin Preakness for "King of the Roxy"

[docicu3]

In trying to script the race for pace and closing presence it would seem reasonable that if the pace is more hotly contested than the derby that a closer other than Street Sense or Curlin may have more of a chance of winning the Preakness than previously discussed here.

If that scenario unfolds sheet theory and brisnet ultimate PP's would give "King of the Roxy" a decent shot at stealing this race late because of the rest he's had coming in to the race and documented late speed in previous races.

Watching some of Gomez's poor decisions over the last week leave me with a feeling that for whatever reason he is not as sharp as his best days from last year. Stepenwolfer and Eff Jaa Gee from the last 3 days at Belmont provide visual evidence of a confused rider cornering his horse rather than maneuvering deftly through traffic. I realize he's at the top of the standings in the money race which I see as more a function of the quality of the mounts he's offered.

"King" is probably my key for the race and I would love to believe in Gomez but I am starting to fear his recent trend albeit small and short but nevertheless bad data too obvious to ignore.

Curlin is a toss for me on short rest again, and Hard Spun has regressed slightly off each top so far in his career.

Will Gomez be the death of "King" or will he give him the ride that gives him a chance to win or at worst be ITM.

Thoughts on this .........????

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by docicu3

Watching some of Gomez's poor decisions over the last week leave me with a feeling that for whatever reason he is not as sharp as his best days from last year.

From DRF:

Ranked by Earnings
through 05/16/2007
RIDER EARNINGS

Gomez G K $7,969,696
Albarado R J 6,503,284
Prado E S 5,743,761
Velazquez J R 5,619,654
Espinoza Victor 5,608,274
Jara Fernando 5,084,774

Looks like a serious slump for Gomez.

--Dunbar

[2Hot4TV]

You're killing me. It won't be Gomez ride that will stop Roxy from the winners circle. It will be the lack of ability and class in the horse.

[cakes44]

If you can't get 1 1/8 miles on the paved highway at Santa Anita(against 2nd tier horses), you're not going to get 1 3/16 miles at Pimlico against 3 quality horses.

[ELA]

I think it's very easy to watch a rider -- any rider -- over a short period of time, then either pick out certain rides or only see a small # of rides (in that short period of time) and ultimately be drawn to a conclusion. May or may not be true and regardless the conclusion can be distorted by many things.

Has Gomez made mad decisions before? Sure and so has every other jock in the game. If in fact this has been a pattern over the past week there can be and is reasoning behind it. He didn't just wake up one day and forget how to ride, start making fundamental mistakes that the world can pick up on, etc.

In a race like this, if a certain horse is my pick, and the jock had been riding the horse successfully, I am not going to be so quick to jump off. Isolated case -- jock is a small factor here.

If KOTR was my choice for the Preakness, there is no way I would be jumping off him just because Gomez is riding.

Eric

[docicu3]

Both of the response posts didn't offer an argument of any kind other than....Gomez is God, that horse sucks!!!!

Do a little research and at least bring something with stats or figs or trends...

I already said Gomez is leading the money chase but those last few days at Belmont he looked like Fong!!!

If you look at the figs you will see that outside of Curlin/Hard Spun/Street Sense only CQ, King and Flying First Class have run negative numbers.

The only rested horse in the bunch is "King" ......

It is so boring to sit here and say Street Sense/Hard Spun/Curlin and it's likely wrong statistically.

I posted and played Street Sense/Hard Spun in the derby....

Last year I had Bernadini/Sweet in the Preakness by the same logic.....the rested horse has an edge if he is good enough and Kings race 2 back might be good enough to win and who's to say he's peaked yet.

If I'm right there will be a price, otherwise this may be a very boring chalky Preakness.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by ELA

If KOTR was my choice for the Preakness, there is no way I would be jumping off him just because Gomez is riding.

Eric

This would be my answer as well, you're playing the horse not the rider.
If you only limit your plays to horses that have riders better than Gomez, I don't think you are making many wagers.

My question would begin and end with assessing KOTR, and his suitability for this race. I don't like him here for reasons others mentioned. Tiago blew by him at 9F.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by cakes44

If you can't get 1 1/8 miles on the paved highway at Santa Anita(against 2nd tier horses), you're not going to get 1 3/16 miles at Pimlico against 3 quality horses.

I was originally thinking the same thing but I just realized he may not have been totally fit to go the distance in the SA Derby. He was coming out of a 7 1/2 furlong race. He simply may not have been ready to go 1 1/8 miles that day.

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I was originally thinking the same thing but I just realized he may not have been totally fit to go the distance in the SA Derby. He was coming out of a 7 1/2 furlong race. He simply may not have been ready to go 1 1/8 miles that day.

Another of the miler-breds in here, could win at 9f or further IF of superior class and dead fit. Does either apply? He has never won a race around 2 turns, which has to give one pause.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

Another of the miler-breds in here, could win at 9f or further IF of superior class and dead fit. Does either apply? He has never won a race around 2 turns, which has to give one pause.

That was the pause that caused me to toss Bernardini last year. Bernardini had the breeding to win, though. I should have paid more attention to that.

[KirisClown]

They really should bypass this race and wait for the Woody Stephens on Belmont day... He has no shot whatsoever this saturday.

[jpops757]

Originally Posted by docicu3

Both of the response posts didn't offer an argument of any kind other than....Gomez is God, that horse sucks!!!!

Do a little research and at least bring something with stats or figs or trends...

I already said Gomez is leading the money chase but those last few days at Belmont he looked like Fong!!!

If you look at the figs you will see that outside of Curlin/Hard Spun/Street Sense only CQ, King and Flying First Class have run negative numbers.

The only rested horse in the bunch is "King" ......

It is so boring to sit here and say Street Sense/Hard Spun/Curlin and it's likely wrong statistically.

I posted and played Street Sense/Hard Spun in the derby....

Last year I had Bernadini/Sweet in the Preakness by the same logic.....the rested horse has an edge if he is good enough and Kings race 2 back might be good enough to win and who's to say he's peaked yet.

If I'm right there will be a price, otherwise this may be a very boring chalky Preakness.

Im not going to say Gomez is "gog" ot the horse sucks but if you like the horse , Gomez sure isnt a good reason to downgrade his chances. Liking roxy probably makes more sense than tossing Curlin.

[milliam]

You can't handicap a race thinking a jockey is going to mess up, you are better off thinking everybody is going to do the right thing and base your bet on trip, pace, and most important odds.

[LARHAGE]

Originally Posted by docicu3

In trying to script the race for pace and closing presence it would seem reasonable that if the pace is more hotly contested than the derby that a closer other than Street Sense or Curlin may have more of a chance of winning the Preakness than previously discussed here.

If that scenario unfolds sheet theory and brisnet ultimate PP's would give "King of the Roxy" a decent shot at stealing this race late because of the rest he's had coming in to the race and documented late speed in previous races.

Watching some of Gomez's poor decisions over the last week leave me with a feeling that for whatever reason he is not as sharp as his best days from last year. Stepenwolfer and Eff Jaa Gee from the last 3 days at Belmont provide visual evidence of a confused rider cornering his horse rather than maneuvering deftly through traffic. I realize he's at the top of the standings in the money race which I see as more a function of the quality of the mounts he's offered.

"King" is probably my key for the race and I would love to believe in Gomez but I am starting to fear his recent trend albeit small and short but nevertheless bad data too obvious to ignore.

Curlin is a toss for me on short rest again, and Hard Spun has regressed slightly off each top so far in his career.

Will Gomez be the death of "King" or will he give him the ride that gives him a chance to win or at worst be ITM.

Thoughts on this .........????

Yeah, Gomez will kill all chance of this horse winning, unless of course he were to jump off at the top of the stretch and make a run for it himself, than maybe they can get the distance.

[docicu3]

Todd rarely brings an unfit horse to anyrace any time never mind a horse who has had 6 weeks pointing to a race.

Gomez is on the 8 wicked retort in the 5th at Bel......Let's see how he does here....the other thought is that he may be injured but Im telling you that he just doesn't look like himself.

He didn't have a great horse in the 2nd on the Ransey's horse but that ride will never be immortalized either.

[docicu3]

Not exactly stellar again but not alot of horse or not alot of jockey at the moment....

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

Another of the miler-breds in here, could win at 9f or further IF of superior class and dead fit. Does either apply? He has never won a race around 2 turns, which has to give one pause.

You're probably right. It is probably a little too far for him. I was just saying that he made have had somewhat of an excuse in his last race.

[golfer]

Doc, the "sheets" guys are with you. Both services think King of the Roxy has a shot in here at a price, although the distance is still the major question.