Derby winner??

[brockguy]

Authorized very very impressive at York in the Dante.. he showed a really high crusing speed typical in most Montjeus and won readily from Raincoat.. There is no denying that the run was very very impressive, It's going to be a different ball game at Epsom and most likely, much quicker ground.. After today's performance I'm sure that he's a G1 winner but I'm not too sure just yet whether that G1 will be in Epsom..

[NoChanceToDance]

He was impressive today, you're right. He has been a horse i've been wanting to take on for the Derby, and after today, he is STILL a horse i want to take on. How anyone can back him at 6/4 for the Derby i will never know. Even if he goes and wins, how can you back a horse at 6/4 for a classic???

As you mentioned, he is yet to encounter fast ground and (if they don't over water at Epsom) i would imagine it to be good to firm........ unless they go the Motivator route bt saying, well he's the favourite, so we will call it good to firm, but in reality we have got the ground riding the slow side of good........ can you tell that really annoyed me? And i think this may happen again. Just wait for it........ 'official' going "good to firm" jockeys reports "slow" times - a few seconds slower than average.

Also, so far he has ran at Newbury twice and York once, probably two of the flattest tracks in the country......... he is yet to even see Epsom, and for some horses i think the look of it is too much. You are betting 6/4 about whether this horse will handle Epsom basically, would you back a horse at 6/4 which you weren't sure would win? I wouldn't.

He won the dante well, lets not beat around the bush, but what did he beat? Adagio looked a colt going places after the Craven, but what happened in the Guineas....... and today he ran far too keenly for his own good. and although Proponent and Raincoat looked like nice horses they still hadn't got the form in the book. It wasn't the greatest of races on the face of it. They didn't go a great pace either, which might just have suited the winner, even though he looks a stout stayer, i thought they might try and do him for toe early. He raced keenly enough in the early stages and remember, the first 5-6 furlongs of the Derby trip are uphill, he can't do that at Epsom and get away with it.

He isn't the Derby winner for me, but at the sametime i wouldn't be shocked if he did win (does that make sense?).

[brockguy]

get you (I think).. i wasnt high on Motivator either and was rather annoyed when he was exposed as just a good horse but the British media tried to build him up as a legend on the turf...


I certainly wouldnt be rushing to get 6-4 on Authorised.. just way too many variables that we dont know much about.. Sure, he's by Montjeu, so you could easily see him act up with all of the fanfare in the lead up to the Derby..

[NoChanceToDance]

Sorry, i get very annoyed talking about Motivator. Everyone knew he was the fans FAV in the Derby (not mine) and there had been speak of him not running unless the ground was suitable (after his maiden win at Newmarket, Michael Bell said Soft ground was almost vital for him). I laid him for the Derby, citing that as the main reason. I know it drizzled the night before and there was a small shower on the day, not enough to change the ground, i really would like to know how much water they put on the track that day.

Other trainers were disgusted, but they were not heard because too many people were so delighted the FAV had won the Derby for the Royal Ascot racing club.

I have a funny feeling the same will happen this year with Authorized, he is the short priced FAV, on he day everyone who goes to Epsom will pile into him because they haven't got a clue about racing. Epsom won't want them to leave unhappy will they? A polite call from Mr Chapple Hyam requesting they leaves the taps on for a couple of hours longer than usual won't got amiss, and the clerk of the course will give out a verdict of "good to firm" when in reality it will probably be "good to soft".

I hate to sound cynical, but i have seen it happen all too often........... fancied short price runners in big races ALWAYS get their desired ground.