If you are interested....

[justindew]

I wrote my analysis of the Preakness for a newspaper called Metro Phildelphia. I'm not sure how racing-savvy the audience is, so I tried to keep it simple while trying to offer some insight....

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In a blog entry that I wrote on April 6th, I named eight horses that I was still considering for my Kentucky Derby Top 3. Two of the eight got hurt and did not make the Derby. Three of them ended up being my final Top 3, Nobiz Like Shobiz, Zanjero, and Any Given Saturday. They went on to finish 8th, 10th, and 12th. The remaining three were ultimately left out of my wagers for a number of reasons.

Their names were Street Sense, Hard Spun, and Curlin, and they would go on to finish 1st, 2nd and 3rd.

Those three will face each other again on Saturday in the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico, and they figure to get the bulk of the support at the betting windows. Street Sense has been installed as the 7-5 morning line favorite, with Hard Spun the second choice at 5-2, and Curlin next at 7-2.

Now, a look at the field for the Preakness Stakes:

1) Mint Slewlip- He has never run against horses of this caliber, and has never put forth an effort which would suggest that he is capable of being competitive versus this bunch. He’s more likely to finish last than in the top three.

2) Xchanger- His connections should be commended for skipping the Kentucky Derby with this guy. After his win over this surface in the Federico Tesio, a case of Derby Fever looked likely. But they resisted. His aforementioned win in the Tesio was a step in the right direction, but he has yet to run well around two turns against top horses. He needs more than one in here to take a step backwards if he is to be a factor late.

3) Circular Quay- He ran an OK race in the Kentucky Derby, and was one of few moving forward late in the game. A fast pace in here will help his cause, but note that he was not even mentioned as a possible Preakness starter until this week. Late additions never inspire much confidence as far as I’m concerned, but outclasses more than half of the field. By default, he will be a factor.

4) Curlin- Regardless of how you feel about his Kentucky Derby effort, I think you have to be concerned that this guy is going to regress at some point. He has been asked to do a lot in a short period of time, and that’s a tough burden for any horse without two-year-old foundation. A win here would really stamp him as an exceptional racehorse. He may be that anyway, but I’m taking another stand against this guy in this spot.

5) King of the Roxy- He ran a solid 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby, an accomplishment that would normally mean a guaranteed start in the Kentucky Derby. Nevertheless, his connections decided to skip it, and point for the Preakness. He really hasn’t done anything wrong this year, although his final 1/8 mile at Santa Anita was quite slow. That’s not exactly what you want to see from a horse with questionable two-turn ability. If you think he has improved since early April, he’s worth a bet. It’s your call, and your money.

6) Flying First Class- D. Wayne Lukas returns to the Triple Crown scene with the winner of the Derby Trial at Churchill Downs a week before the Derby. This horse was on the path to a start in the Kentucky Derby, but twice turned in very poor efforts against top company, and was given a chance to go a shorter distance. It was a good choice. Like King of the Roxy, Flying First Class has shown more ability sprinting than routing. Lukas is a master, and I hate to leave him out of any race, but it would take a huge step up for this horse to win here.

7) Hard Spun- It happens just about every year. A horse runs a huge race in the Kentucky Derby, but comes up short. That horse then goes on to the Preakness, gets overbet because of the Derby effort, and loses again. I think Hard Spun fits that trend perfectly. He ran a great race in the Derby, possibly better than Street Sense. But I think that was THE race for him. I think that was his best shot. Now I think he regresses at low odds.

8) Street Sense- The reasons that I didn’t like him in the Kentucky Derby are the same reasons that I do like him in the Preakness. He is fresh, and the Derby win took less out of him than his top competitors. The smaller field should mean less risk of trouble, and with the poor quality of the rest of the field, he could take a slight step back and still win. He is listed at 7-5 on the morning line, and if those odds hold, he’s a steal. At even money, he offers fair value.

9) CP West- He is yet another Preakness entrant who has yet to do anything at all around two turns. His trainer, Nick Zito, won this race in 1996 with Louis Quatorze, and jockey Edgar Prado is one of the best. I think CP West has more potential than the other newcomers, and the price will be generous. He might surprise a few people, and a board finish is not out of the question.

My pick to win is Street Sense. I think Hard Spun will disappoint a lot of people, and I think Curlin needs a rest. Circular Quay should be passing horses late, and CP West has a chance to outrun his odds.

1. Street Sense
2. Circular Quay
3. CP West

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by justindew

I'm not sure how racing-savvy the audience is, so I tried to keep it simple while trying to offer some insight....

Personally I prefer the approach of not talking down to one's audience....and if inclined to do so perhaps not so openly admitting it.

[justindew]

I didn't talk down to anyone. I just didn't know if mentioning Thorograph numbers and :13.80 final furlongs was appropriate for a non-racing audience in Metro Philadelphia, a publication that I know nothing about.

Just trying to do my part to get people to watch with interest. Not trying to confuse people.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by justindew

I wrote my analysis of the Preakness for a newspaper called Metro Phildelphia. I'm not sure how racing-savvy the audience is, so I tried to keep it simple while trying to offer some insight....

------------------

In a blog entry that I wrote on April 6th, I named eight horses that I was still considering for my Kentucky Derby Top 3. Two of the eight got hurt and did not make the Derby. Three of them ended up being my final Top 3, Nobiz Like Shobiz, Zanjero, and Any Given Saturday. They went on to finish 8th, 10th, and 12th. The remaining three were ultimately left out of my wagers for a number of reasons.

Their names were Street Sense, Hard Spun, and Curlin, and they would go on to finish 1st, 2nd and 3rd.

Those three will face each other again on Saturday in the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico, and they figure to get the bulk of the support at the betting windows. Street Sense has been installed as the 7-5 morning line favorite, with Hard Spun the second choice at 5-2, and Curlin next at 7-2.

Now, a look at the field for the Preakness Stakes:

1) Mint Slewlip- He has never run against horses of this caliber, and has never put forth an effort which would suggest that he is capable of being competitive versus this bunch. He’s more likely to finish last than in the top three.

2) Xchanger- His connections should be commended for skipping the Kentucky Derby with this guy. After his win over this surface in the Federico Tesio, a case of Derby Fever looked likely. But they resisted. His aforementioned win in the Tesio was a step in the right direction, but he has yet to run well around two turns against top horses. He needs more than one in here to take a step backwards if he is to be a factor late.

3) Circular Quay- He ran an OK race in the Kentucky Derby, and was one of few moving forward late in the game. A fast pace in here will help his cause, but note that he was not even mentioned as a possible Preakness starter until this week. Late additions never inspire much confidence as far as I’m concerned, but outclasses more than half of the field. By default, he will be a factor.

4) Curlin- Regardless of how you feel about his Kentucky Derby effort, I think you have to be concerned that this guy is going to regress at some point. He has been asked to do a lot in a short period of time, and that’s a tough burden for any horse without two-year-old foundation. A win here would really stamp him as an exceptional racehorse. He may be that anyway, but I’m taking another stand against this guy in this spot.

5) King of the Roxy- He ran a solid 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby, an accomplishment that would normally mean a guaranteed start in the Kentucky Derby. Nevertheless, his connections decided to skip it, and point for the Preakness. He really hasn’t done anything wrong this year, although his final 1/8 mile at Santa Anita was quite slow. That’s not exactly what you want to see from a horse with questionable two-turn ability. If you think he has improved since early April, he’s worth a bet. It’s your call, and your money.

6) Flying First Class- D. Wayne Lukas returns to the Triple Crown scene with the winner of the Derby Trial at Churchill Downs a week before the Derby. This horse was on the path to a start in the Kentucky Derby, but twice turned in very poor efforts against top company, and was given a chance to go a shorter distance. It was a good choice. Like King of the Roxy, Flying First Class has shown more ability sprinting than routing. Lukas is a master, and I hate to leave him out of any race, but it would take a huge step up for this horse to win here.

7) Hard Spun- It happens just about every year. A horse runs a huge race in the Kentucky Derby, but comes up short. That horse then goes on to the Preakness, gets overbet because of the Derby effort, and loses again. I think Hard Spun fits that trend perfectly. He ran a great race in the Derby, possibly better than Street Sense. But I think that was THE race for him. I think that was his best shot. Now I think he regresses at low odds.

8) Street Sense- The reasons that I didn’t like him in the Kentucky Derby are the same reasons that I do like him in the Preakness. He is fresh, and the Derby win took less out of him than his top competitors. The smaller field should mean less risk of trouble, and with the poor quality of the rest of the field, he could take a slight step back and still win. He is listed at 7-5 on the morning line, and if those odds hold, he’s a steal. At even money, he offers fair value.

9) CP West- He is yet another Preakness entrant who has yet to do anything at all around two turns. His trainer, Nick Zito, won this race in 1996 with Louis Quatorze, and jockey Edgar Prado is one of the best. I think CP West has more potential than the other newcomers, and the price will be generous. He might surprise a few people, and a board finish is not out of the question.

My pick to win is Street Sense. I think Hard Spun will disappoint a lot of people, and I think Curlin needs a rest. Circular Quay should be passing horses late, and CP West has a chance to outrun his odds.

1. Curlin
2. Street Sense
3. Hard Spun

Fixed it for you, Justin.

[blackthroatedwind]

Now that I've read it I wouldn't say you talked down to people at all. Nice job.

I don't agree about Circular Quay " moving forward " necessarily in the Derby but specific opinions are secondary to the overall quality of the work.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by justindew

I didn't talk down to anyone. I just didn't know if mentioning Thorograph numbers and :13.80 final furlongs was appropriate for a non-racing audience in Metro Philadelphia, a publication that I know nothing about.

Just trying to do my part to get people to watch with interest. Not trying to confuse people.

I'm usually joking. My last post was serious. I honestly thought your piece was concise and terrific.

[slotdirt]

I just don't get where justin's coming from on Hard Spun. For every horse who finishes second in the Derby off a massive top, there are just as many who run equally as well in the Preakness. This just isn't a statistically relevant trend.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I just don't get where justin's coming from on Hard Spun. For every horse who finishes second in the Derby off a massive top, there are just as many who run equally as well in the Preakness. This just isn't a statistically relevant trend.

I don't think it's a relevant trend either, but I do agree with Justin in that I think the Derby effort COULD have taken a bit too much out of Hard Spun. He put in a huge effort and you have to wonder how tired he is.

Hate is a strong word to use. That's the only thing I would change.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I just don't get where justin's coming from on Hard Spun. For every horse who finishes second in the Derby off a massive top, there are just as many who run equally as well in the Preakness. This just isn't a statistically relevant trend.

While all of these trends are only useful (or total tosses) to the point you are willing to use them, there is some validity to what he said just from a purely statistical view.

I wasn't aware of it until this morning, just how bad it is.

From: http://ntra.com/content.aspx?type=news&id=25389

The Preakness does not seem to elicit nearly as many of those history-based theories, but one that has become difficult to ignore over the last 40-plus years is the performance of second-place Derby finishers in the Preakness. Indeed, Derby runners-up have blazed an abysmal trail when moving from Churchill Downs to Pimlico, as only two of the last 46 have won the Preakness. That's not counting Forward Pass, who was awarded the Derby on disqualification in 1968 and went on to win the Preakness.

[slotdirt]

And as many others have mentioned, it's not like Hard Spun ran anything other than every other figure he's run his last several races. He's been consistent if anything.

[justindew]

Calling it a "trend" probably isn't the best word. It's just something I have noticed over the last 12 years or so. I think Hard Spun ran "his race" in the Derby, and is now a threat to regress. Would I bet my life on it? Of course not. But there is a greater risk that Hard Spun will regress than there is that Street Sense will. So as a bettor, I'll choose Street Sense and try to find value with Circular Quay and CP West.

[justindew]

....Also, my opinion on Hard Spun has nothing to do with him finishing 2nd. He could have been passed late by another horse or two, and I would feel the same way.

[tycharles01]

I dont think Hard Spun regresses at all. Jones says on ESPN that if he draws outside of the speed (FFC and KOTR) he will just sit off the pace. This horse has nice cruising speed and if SS gets caught behind some horses or horses that die Hard Spun should have a nice race.


Curlin could be the trouble horse. Still do not know what to think of him. Ya he finished 3rd but very well could have also finished 7th in the Derby.

[GenuineRisk]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Fixed it for you, Justin.

Funny. Very funny.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by justindew

Calling it a "trend" probably isn't the best word. It's just something I have noticed over the last 12 years or so. I think Hard Spun ran "his race" in the Derby, and is now a threat to regress. Would I bet my life on it? Of course not. But there is a greater risk that Hard Spun will regress than there is that Street Sense will. So as a bettor, I'll choose Street Sense and try to find value with Circular Quay and CP West.

I don't like even the idea of " trends " as I think each case is different. For example, Lion Heart, who I absolutely hated in the Preakness ( to be honest I was hardly Smarmy Jones's biggest supporter either ). I felt Lion Heart's effort in the Derby was completely a result of the sloppy track, as he was on empty at the top of the stretch and the track carried him home. I assumed he would be burned up trying to deal with Smarty Jones and regardless of the final result he would be spent. To me he was essentially a miler who went further do to racetrack bias and conditions.

To me, Hard Spun is simply a horse that has run well every time he has hit the racetrack, and I don't see why that shouldn't be the case Saturday.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by justindew

....Also, my opinion on Hard Spun has nothing to do with him finishing 2nd. He could have been passed late by another horse or two, and I would feel the same way.

Mine has everything to do with him finishing second and absolutely nothing else, as I'm always looking for an edge.

[tycharles01]

Question about Flying First Class


What is the farthest he has run?? or farthest he ran before dying??

[justindew]

He went 8.5F and 9F at Oaklawn.

[slotdirt]

Even if Hard Spun AND Curlin regress though, they're going to have to run with three legs to get to CP West's level. Honestly.