Angle - Blinkers Off

[Scav]

More and more I watch this angle more and more I see how strong it is, especially with a horse that has worn them for a long time. Thoughts?

[MISTERGEE]

best is what i call the hidden change, example: they take blinkers off and run the horse on turf lets say. then they bring the horse back to his preferred surface, maybe a sprint. it will not show as a change of equipment but essentially it is first time on dirt sprint with blinkers off.
you will catch alot of prices this way.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE

best is what i call the hidden change, example: they take blinkers off and run the horse on turf lets say. then they bring the horse back to his preferred surface, maybe a sprint. it will not show as a change of equipment but essentially it is first time on dirt sprint with blinkers off.
you will catch alot of prices this way.

I didn't even think of that, that is some serious anaylzation right there

[skippy3481]

I've noticed that as well, An interesting study would be win as well as wps percentages on blinkers off. I'm sure some trainers are better first off blinkers then others. That might provide an angle that very few people would ever realize. Interesting angle scavs.

[sumitas]

these blinkers do affect how the horse runs. it is something to look for.

Yeah blinkers off in a sprint is a juicy angle.

[pointman]

Great stuff. One of the many reasons why I love this board, something I will look for. Appreciate the angle.

[ArlJim78]

I collected data last year for six months on the blinkers off angle.
There is definitely some value to watching this angle as I think its generally over-looked. especially compared to blinkers-on.
some things i picked up, just from memory,

look for blkrs off combined with another factor like, trainer change, jockey change, drop from MSW to MCL, recent sharp work that occured after last blinkers on race, etc.

something odd that I can't explain, is that Blkrs/off seems to work best in California, mainly SA and HOL but also NoCal. On the other hand, at NY tracks its almost never a good factor.

its not something to look for in higher end races, alw or stakes, you're looking at maidens or claimers

if a horse has raced at a higher level in the not too distant past, look for blkrs off to perhaps allow a horse to get comfortable and to race back up to that higher level. on the other hand do not count on blkrs off to move a horses performance level up to a new high. In other words if it is going to take a lifetime top performance from a horse to win on a particular day, the blkrs off won't be enough. but if you see a longshot that if he could just race to a level that he was at in the last 1-2 years would be a good play, and if there are no other telltale signs of unsoundness, then you might want to throw that one in the mix.

Sometimes you can see where blkrs are added, the horses running lines go sour, and they just leave the blinkers on. After awhile if this goes on everyone just assumes the horse isn't the same anymore. When I find a horse that looks like he is being hindered, or is uncomfortable in the blinkers i put him in a watch list so i can watch entries and see when they finally might decide to take them off.

I have seen many bombs come in on this angle but in the right spots, it's not an across the board type thing.

[MISTERGEE]

you can use the same theory i explained before with first time lasix. many times the first time a horse gets lasix he is not at his preferred surface or distance, when he switches to what he really likes it will no longer show as first time lasix. but effectively for our betting purposes it is the first time he has had lasix at his preferred surface or distance. then bam he gets the wake up call and we hit another big payoff!

[timmgirvan]

Loved the blinkers on/off for a long while now! You can really catch a price,too

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I collected data last year for six months on the blinkers off angle.
There is definitely some value to watching this angle as I think its generally over-looked. especially compared to blinkers-on.
some things i picked up, just from memory,

look for blkrs off combined with another factor like, trainer change, jockey change, drop from MSW to MCL, recent sharp work that occured after last blinkers on race, etc.

something odd that I can't explain, is that Blkrs/off seems to work best in California, mainly SA and HOL but also NoCal. On the other hand, at NY tracks its almost never a good factor.

its not something to look for in higher end races, alw or stakes, you're looking at maidens or claimers

if a horse has raced at a higher level in the not too distant past, look for blkrs off to perhaps allow a horse to get comfortable and to race back up to that higher level. on the other hand do not count on blkrs off to move a horses performance level up to a new high. In other words if it is going to take a lifetime top performance from a horse to win on a particular day, the blkrs off won't be enough. but if you see a longshot that if he could just race to a level that he was at in the last 1-2 years would be a good play, and if there are no other telltale signs of unsoundness, then you might want to throw that one in the mix.

Sometimes you can see where blkrs are added, the horses running lines go sour, and they just leave the blinkers on. After awhile if this goes on everyone just assumes the horse isn't the same anymore. When I find a horse that looks like he is being hindered, or is uncomfortable in the blinkers i put him in a watch list so i can watch entries and see when they finally might decide to take them off.

I have seen many bombs come in on this angle but in the right spots, it's not an across the board type thing.

Thanks for sharing this AJ78 and a good thread. I'll add that when I see blinks off combined with a drop and cut it's even more significant when a top jock sticks with the mount after a seemingly poor run in the prior race when riding for the first time.

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I collected data last year for six months on the blinkers off angle.
There is definitely some value to watching this angle as I think its generally over-looked. especially compared to blinkers-on.
some things i picked up, just from memory,

look for blkrs off combined with another factor like, trainer change, jockey change, drop from MSW to MCL, recent sharp work that occured after last blinkers on race, etc.

something odd that I can't explain, is that Blkrs/off seems to work best in California, mainly SA and HOL but also NoCal. On the other hand, at NY tracks its almost never a good factor.

its not something to look for in higher end races, alw or stakes, you're looking at maidens or claimers

if a horse has raced at a higher level in the not too distant past, look for blkrs off to perhaps allow a horse to get comfortable and to race back up to that higher level. on the other hand do not count on blkrs off to move a horses performance level up to a new high. In other words if it is going to take a lifetime top performance from a horse to win on a particular day, the blkrs off won't be enough. but if you see a longshot that if he could just race to a level that he was at in the last 1-2 years would be a good play, and if there are no other telltale signs of unsoundness, then you might want to throw that one in the mix.

Sometimes you can see where blkrs are added, the horses running lines go sour, and they just leave the blinkers on. After awhile if this goes on everyone just assumes the horse isn't the same anymore. When I find a horse that looks like he is being hindered, or is uncomfortable in the blinkers i put him in a watch list so i can watch entries and see when they finally might decide to take them off.

I have seen many bombs come in on this angle but in the right spots, it's not an across the board type thing.

Truly great stuff Jim......a new watch has been created in my software!!

[pmacdaddy]

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE

you can use the same theory i explained before with first time lasix. many times the first time a horse gets lasix he is not at his preferred surface or distance, when he switches to what he really likes it will no longer show as first time lasix. but effectively for our betting purposes it is the first time he has had lasix at his preferred surface or distance. then bam he gets the wake up call and we hit another big payoff!

Some great info in this thread.

The above make me think about a number of times I have heard guys who like to play 2nd time Lasix. Rationale I have heard is that the Lasix doesn't "take" the first time and horse moves forward in 2nd start.

Wonder how much of that is attributable to another factor such as surface/equip change that accompanies 1st Lasix start.

Definitely great stuff to watch for.

[2 Dollar Bill]

Thanks for the wonderful read/thoughts... now im sure, I'll get shut out adding this info to alllllllllllllll the other stuff..

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

Thanks for sharing this AJ78 and a good thread. I'll add that when I see blinks off combined with a drop and cut it's even more significant when a top jock sticks with the mount after a seemingly poor run in the prior race when riding for the first time.

yep that's a good one to watch. If you see a decent jock take a mount and the horse runs poorly, then there is a break, a workout, and the next time the blinkers are off and the same jock retains the mount? look out.

also one other thing I forgot to add in the original post, don't fall for what I call a desperation blkrs off move. Let's say that a horse is just not fast and has had horrible form despite trying different distances, classes, etc, combined with a low percentage trainer. In this case when you see Blkrs off I call it a desperation play, in other words let's try anything.

The other one is when a horse with poor form tries blinkers for one race, the result is still bad so they remove the blkrs. This is not a good blkrs off move.

The best ones are of course when the horse has been racing in blinkers for some time and it seems like they want to run during parts of the race but not throughout. I look for some display of speed either early or late. That way you know there is something to work with and that removing the blinkers might make a big difference.

[miraja2]

Question: How much does their recent running style factor in?
I personally don't use "blinkers-off" as an angle (although apparently I should) but for Jim and others that do use it, I assume that if a horse was rank - or simply wouldn't rate - in his recent starts with blinkers, you look at the blinkers-off angle as more meaningful. Is that true?
If a horse shows no early run with blinkers, do you still think that taking the blinkers off will sometimes help?

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Question: How much does their recent running style factor in?
I personally don't use "blinkers-off" as an angle (although apparently I should) but for Jim and others that do use it, I assume that if a horse was rank - or simply wouldn't rate - in his recent starts with blinkers, you look at the blinkers-off angle as more meaningful. Is that true?
If a horse shows no early run with blinkers, do you still think that taking the blinkers off will sometimes help?

a horse with no early run in blkrs is not one I would look at, for sure, especially if its an older horse.

It's hard to generalize but what I have noticed like with maidens is that sometimes you will see when the trainers put on the blinkers that the speed was sharpened but it looks like with some horses the sharpened speed may come at the expense of having the horse run relaxed and they end up coming up short in the lane and not getting the win. What I have noticed is that in this case when the blinkers are removed the horse now has better fitness and speed, but seems to be relaxed and will more naturally come from just off the pace and finish up well.

Like with anything else there are no hard and fast rules, you just have to use your normal thought process to determine if you think it may or may not help a particular horse on a particular day.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

you just have to use your normal thought process.

Oh, never mind then. I am trying to find a way to avoid having to do that.

[ArlJim78]

Okay handicapping Hollywood tonight and in the first race is a textbook blinkers off maiden horse that i referred to earlier.

Themis Valentine, the 3, has raced in blinkers four times and shows lots of speed especially to the half mile. After the half he slows up enough so that he's been caught each time although he's come close a few times.

Now the blinkers come off, Baze keeps the mount. Now this horse would be bet and would be logical even if the blinkers weren't coming off, after all its O'Neil. But he'd be no sure thing because of what looks like a tendency to come back late.

This is the type of situation were I would expect this horse to run very relaxed, not quite as fast early, and have plenty enough to hold off the others late. we'll see in about an hour.

[pmacdaddy]

Kept my eye out for Blinker changes when I looked at HOL.

Also noted, Race #3 Storm Ultra - added blinkers in last and was well bet on turf. Now keeps blinks going Turf / Synth.
Appears Turf is not preferred surface. Potential significance?