Iowa Oaks & Derby - LS late PK 4 Fri +318

Bogey · #1 06-30-2006, 02:33 AM

The start of the 3rd week and the account is up 381 units. Let's take a look at the Iowa Oaks, Iowa Derby, and Lone Star's late pick 4 for Fri night.

Prairie Meadows - Race 7 - Iowa Oaks (G3)
#3 Brownie Points - Very consistent filly looks to run them down from behind.
#4 Maggie Slew - 2 for 2 for the bug boy Leparoux and you've got to pull for the daughter of Slew. She's one of two runners left sired by the great Champion Seattle Slew. Only concern is she didn't care for the stretchout last fall at KEE. Move her to the top spot if the track comes on the moist side.

Prairie Meadows - Race 8 - Iowa Derby
#7 Circle the World - Lightly raced son of Fu Peg has an enormous amount of talent and could make some serious noise in the 2nd half of the year.
#2 More Than Regal - Asmussen has found a good spot for him. His last 6 races have come at 6 different tracks..This will be Lucky 7?
#4 Spotgone - Last two have been big and won the prep race last out on this surface.
#3 Blazing Sunset - Will be an underlay because of the strong Cali connections and this is not a speed favoring strip like in LA LA LAND.

Play - 1 Tri Key 7 over 2 3 4 and play the 7 for 2nd with the 2 3 4 = 12 units

The pick 4 last week at LS got our weekend going in the right direction, so let's continue the trend.

Lone Star Park - Late Pick 4
Race 7 - #1 Total Command - His two turf tries have been solid.
#3 Disengage - Steps up in class, but the 5yr Grey Gelding is in good form.
#4 Smoken Smoke - Makes important 3rd start off a layoff for Pish.

Race 8 - #4 Hey Skootch - By Victory Gallop, so he should enjoy the extra ground.
#6 Instant Messenger - The drop will help his cause.
#7 Sing Baby Sing - Obvious contender taking a step down versus these.

Race 9 - #1 Tale of Freedom - Solid turf record and is 2 for 2 on the LS lawn.
#5 Candy Ball - Leggio doesn't ship to Texas for the Bar-B-Q.

Race 10 - #3 Tuff Lula - The switch back to face state breds might do the trick.
#8 Fast Moment - His last three under Murphy makes him a major player here.
#10 La Noche Unica - Draw a line through her last and she fits well here.

Play - .50cent pick 4 - 1 3 4 with 4 6 7 with 1 5 with 3 8 10 = 27 units for a .50cent play

After the two plays the account stands at plus 279

Good Racing Luck

swedejxn · #2 06-30-2006, 08:45 AM

Bogey, Not that you need validation or confirmation.... but I totally agree with top two picks (and comments) for PMeadows. Have always liked More Than Regal and this could be the spot... and Circle the World could very well be the second half star....

Scav · #3 06-30-2006, 11:22 AM

I would be careful with Circle the World for a couple reasons. 1) the horse will be gross underlay...When a trainer like Pletcher ships to a track like Prairie or Arlington, all the people that bet into those pools want to tell their friends they had the big named trainer's horse...2) this horse is like most fu pegs and get really hot, I expect him to be completely washed out tonight, tons of new situations, first time under the lights, new track....

Bogey · #4 06-30-2006, 11:04 PM

Swede, I hope you cashed with MTR.

Scav, you were right on the money with CTW.He freaked out under the lights and broke dead last. He was never a factor. The Ass Man strikes again. He is the most dangerous trainer when you don't expect him to get it done. Nice job.

#5 06-30-2006, 11:43 PM

Picked the wrong filly between Baghdaria and Brownie Points and lost that race, but CRUSHED More Than Regal at 9-1 after looking past the ridiculously overbet Pletcher colt....what value...great way to start the weekend!

Bogey · #6 06-30-2006, 11:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

Picked the wrong filly between Baghdaria and Brownie Points and lost that race, but CRUSHED More Than Regal at 9-1 after looking past the ridiculously overbet Pletcher colt....what value...great way to start the weekend!

I was actually thinking of you before the race. I knew you had the Ass Man and I know you went down swinging with him. Nice Hit. I got a piece of that, just not a suitcase worth.

#7 07-01-2006, 12:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bogey

I was actually thinking of you before the race. I knew you had the Ass Man and I know you went down swinging with him. Nice Hit. I got a piece of that, just not a suitcase worth.

It is funny you mentioned Steve...I saw him in the Louisville airport on Wednesday when I was flying back in from Louisiana and he was flying out...he likes More Than Regal....I actually liked Pletcher's colt a little in that race but I said on JJ's show that I would let the price steer me to the horse I'd wager on...Pletcher's colt was ridiculously short considering that he was stretching out around two-turns for the first time and lacked seasoning in a wide-open race, so the way I approached the it was by betting $100 to win on both More Than Regal (9-1) and Spotsgone (7-1), figuring that they were the value plays of the race and would be a winning proposition if one or the other won....I got lucky..

Bogey · #8 07-01-2006, 12:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

It is funny you mentioned Steve...I saw him in the Louisville airport on Wednesday when I was flying back in from Louisiana and he was flying out...he likes More Than Regal....I actually liked Pletcher's colt a little in that race but I said on JJ's show that I would let the price steer me to the horse I'd wager on...Pletcher's colt was ridiculously short considering that he was stretching out around two-turns for the first time and lacked seasoning in a wide-open race, so the way I approached the it was by betting $100 to win on both More Than Regal (9-1) and Spotsgone (7-1), figuring that they were the value plays of the race and would be a winning proposition if one or the other won....I got lucky..

Nice Job, I'm actually having a little fun and playing the rest of the card at Hollywood Park with house money. Yeah, I was worried when I saw CTW at
3-2.