If you had a choice...?

pmayjr · #1 06-10-2007, 04:47 AM

If you guys had a choice-

Most of us are pessimistic, but at the same time show a little optimism: Let's say between Street Sense, Curlin, and Rags to Riches: That 2 out of the 3 will make it to the Breeder's Cup this year.

If you could pick the 2 out of the 3 that could make it to the Breeder's Cup, who would you pick?

I will throw this assumption out there to help you: Say Rags holds her own against the competition this summer and fall, she'd run in the BC Classic and not the Distaff. That's a very reasonable assumption. Azeri did pretty well a couple of years ago (5th place in the Ghostzapper race), and Michael Tabor (her owner) had the courage to put her in the Belmont. Randy Moss said Tabor "is a gambler" and likes to take these risks all the time. So if Rags holds her own against boys and girls this summer and fall, I bet she goes in the BC Classic instead of the Distaff. One other thing... which might be a little counter-point to what I just brought up about Tabor: She'll avoid Invasor until the BC Classic.

For me, I'd pick Street Sense and Curlin. No offense to Rags. I hope this race wasn't a fluke, and she is an absolute routing monster that can handle any horse. But I wanna see what SS and Curlin will do against each other with some freshening.

ninetoone · #2 06-10-2007, 04:52 AM

Curlin & Rags

pmayjr · #3 06-10-2007, 04:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ninetoone

Curlin & Rags

Ninetoone,
Great choices, and I love your reasoning for it.... oh wait... what was your reasoning again? I know it was really in depth, but I forgot, so please repeat...

ninetoone · #4 06-10-2007, 04:59 AM

Well, Curlin & SS is close, and I think you've definitely got to throw the filly in to make it interesting. Seeing as the BC is not in Churchill Downs this year & Curlin seems to be slightly more talented than SS (IMO), I went with those 2...tough call.

letswastemoney · #5 06-10-2007, 05:24 AM

Rags isn't going to beat them at a shorter distance. She can hit the board in the Classic, probably won't win though against Invasor, Street Sense, and Curlin.

ninetoone · #6 06-10-2007, 05:26 AM

Actually, that's a good point...I'd put in whichever 2 would give me better odds on the winner, INVASOR

pmayjr · #7 06-10-2007, 12:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Rags isn't going to beat them at a shorter distance. She can hit the board in the Classic, probably won't win though against Invasor, Street Sense, and Curlin.

I'm not sure if I agree with that... A mile and a quarter isn't like they're dropping back to a sprint distance. To me that quarter of a mile doesn't make much of a difference.

10 pnt move up · #8 06-10-2007, 12:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pmayjr

I'm not sure if I agree with that... A mile and a quarter isn't like they're dropping back to a sprint distance. To me that quarter of a mile doesn't make much of a difference.

I think that 2 furlongs makes all the difference.

Rags will never beat curlin or street sense at 10F.

justindew · #9 06-10-2007, 12:31 PM

Considering Street Sense will probably never race again, I'll take Curlin and Rags.

blackthroatedwind · #10 06-10-2007, 12:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

Considering Street Sense will probably never race again, I'll take Curlin and Rags.

Probably????

That means I guess you are now laying a price. I will take 6:5 for a few hundred.

pmayjr · #11 06-10-2007, 12:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I think that 2 furlongs makes all the difference.

Rags will never beat curlin or street sense at 10F.

So just because she won at a mile and a half, it's a fluke to you guys? We might never know, but I'd be willing to say that even at a mile and an eight she's damn formidable against these guys... Then again, at a mile and an eight, maybe Hard Spun has enough juice to outlast these guys.

justindew · #12 06-10-2007, 01:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Probably????

That means I guess you are now laying a price. I will take 6:5 for a few hundred.

Hell no. What am I, an idiot?

Don't answer that.

In all honesty, I would say he's 50-50 to race again.

mes5107 · #13 06-10-2007, 05:33 PM

Do filly graded stakes races count toward the Breeder's Cup Classic Points? As far as I can tell, points earned on dirt count towards the dirt championship races and points earned on turf count towards the turf championship races, with no mention of whether is matters if a race was restricted to fillies or open.

With that in mind, I would have to say that Rags to Riches has a very good shot of getting into the Classic, if her intentions want to go that route. Of course this assumes that races such as the CC Am Oaks and Alabama will count. Curlin probably has the second best shot of getting in as Assmussen, Stonestreet, Padua, etc. seem to not mind running him often.