Pic 3's and 4's vs. pic 6's

[dellinger63]

Personally I like to start both with a non-chalk unless a A horse in a subsequent race is not the chalk or a back non-chalk ( I would love to see a study) but no time.... Otherwise pass and it may involve a lot of passing which, IMO the decision to pass is good.

[philcski]

Dell, I've done some research on this and I've found in NY the P3 pools are very efficient. It doesn't really matter whether you start with a chalk or a non-chalk, you're going to get approximately the parlay value plus a little. Other tracks, however, with smaller pools, can have astronomical payoffs if you beat a heavy favorite in the first leg (or any leg, for that matter).

[hi_im_god]

if a pic 3 and a pick 4 ganged up on a pick 6, together i think they it down.

1 on 1 i'd have my money on the pick 6 against either.

don't get me started on a show parlay vs. slot machine vs. lighting stacks of money on fire.

that is my dream matchup in the octagon.

[dellinger63]

Thanks see u at the spa

maybe, I like all others are thinking woulda, coulda, shoulda, I'm also just considering ML unless the horse is Panty Raid, which brings up another point.


If u know a horse, actuallly a colt or filly from a Maiden race will scratch out does it make sense to use them in multple race bets or not? The firster winners at the spa seem to be well known. And in those races I love to have the 4-1 that goes off at 4/5....

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by dellinger63

Personally I like to start both with a non-chalk unless a A horse in a subsequent race is not the chalk or a back non-chalk ( I would love to see a study) but no time.... Otherwise pass and it may involve a lot of passing which, IMO the decision to pass is good.

i apologise for my prior post.

i may have misunderstood what you meant.

having re-read this what i actually want to say is...

what?

[dellinger63]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

i apologise for my prior post.

i may have misunderstood what you meant.

having re-read this what i actually want to say is...

what?

Just pass then.... Talking about the parlay value against pic 3 and 4 payoffs...

[dellinger63]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

i apologise for my prior post.

i may have misunderstood what you meant.

having re-read this what i actually want to say is...

what?

and because ur an a-hole I'll just bid bye-bye.....


U into racing or Paris Hilton?

[hi_im_god]

why would it matter which leg you have a "non-chalk" in?

is there less value when that hits the 2nd, 3rd, or later leg?

just handicap. if there is an obvious single early and value later why would you pass that?

i don't really want the answer. never mind.

[dellinger63]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

why would it matter which leg you have a "non-chalk" in?

is there less value when that hits the 2nd, 3rd, or later leg?

just handicap. if there is an obvious single early and value later why would you pass that?

i don't really want the answer. never mind.

K my point was the uneducated public usually includes a false fav either at the start or the last position. Jst wondered what the stats were. In my experience usually w/e's u get rewarded for prices on the start instead of cheering on all the chalks. Blockhead is that you?

[dellinger63]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

why would it matter which leg you have a "non-chalk" in?

is there less value when that hits the 2nd, 3rd, or later leg?

just handicap. if there is an obvious single early and value later why would you pass that?

i don't really want the answer. never mind.

and I spent a worthless 3 mins going back to find a post about racing. Six pages of Inquirer BS. LOL

what Rosie off "The View" got u messed up?????

[hi_im_god]

my point was don't stuff your bets into a box. they don't always fit.

ignoring a favorite in the first leg makes as much sense as always including one.

if you want to hurt my feelings, call me oracle.

[dellinger63]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

my point was don't stuff your bets into a box. they don't always fit.

ignoring a favorite in the first leg makes as much sense as always including one.

if you want to hurt my feelings, call me oracle.

OK that was good but Blockhead couldn't tie Oracle's shoes.........

[dellinger63]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

my point was don't stuff your bets into a box. they don't always fit.

ignoring a favorite in the first leg makes as much sense as always including one.

if you want to hurt my feelings, call me oracle.

and the whole point of my post is if u don't have a strong opinion against a fav in a subsequent race why start with a fav? Pass the race.....

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by dellinger63

and the whole point of my post is if u don't have a strong opinion against a fav in a subsequent race why start with a fav? Pass the race.....

so...you are against betting all chalk multi race bets?

interesting.

i'll have to mull that over.

meanwhile, it looks like entertainment tonight is starting. i....can't....take....my...eyes...off...

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by dellinger63

and I spent a worthless 3 mins going back to find a post about racing. Six pages of Inquirer BS. LOL

what Rosie off "The View" got u messed up?????

Hey, I resemble that remark!

[robfla]

95% of my wagers are p3s and p4s.

I really don't think there is specific value in which leg you beat the favorite in.

I always try to start thin and finish wide. My thinking is that a lot of people just want to "stay alive" and single in the last leg. In fact you will see a lot of times the closing leg p3 favorite will be an underlay, and a middle shot, say 10:1 might actually be 25:1 in p3 and p4 pools. I can remember @ HWD hitting a p4 with 2/1,8:5,3:1,15:1 paying over 1400 for $1

so in conclusion, I say try to beat the fav in the last leg - in fact look at yesterday's late p3,p4,p6 @ Belmont... 19:1 shot in last leg lit up the entire bet. all favs then 19:1

p3 = 300+ ( 4:5 / 2:1 / 19:1 )
p4 = 900+ ( even money / 4:5 / 2:1 / 19:1 )

each for $1