DelMar fake dirt

JJP · #1 07-15-2007, 10:58 PM

TVG reporting tonight that the Del Mar Polytrack is apparently more like the crap thats used at Keeneland (and also Arlington). That's very useful info because I won't bother playing Del Mar at all.

I wonder how many of the brilliant Polytrack handicappers had Frost Alert at an underlaid $20 in the 6th at AP today. Not only was it shocking he won, it was how he did it. He figured to never be closer than 3rd yet he had no problem getting to the front and clearly reversing his poor previous Poly race.

geeker2 · #2 07-15-2007, 11:00 PM

I'd wait for the labs results first...then blame the poly

Scav · #3 07-15-2007, 11:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JJP

TVG reporting tonight that the Del Mar Polytrack is apparently more like the crap thats used at Keeneland (and also Arlington). That's very useful info because I won't bother playing Del Mar at all.

I wonder how many of the brilliant Polytrack handicappers had Frost Alert at an underlaid $20 in the 6th at AP today. Not only was it shocking he won, it was how he did it. He figured to never be closer than 3rd yet he had no problem getting to the front and clearly reversing his poor previous Poly race.

Looking back on that horse today, I saw how he was playable. YOu could have argued 2nd off the layoff, speed and fade, but yes I agree, it was shocking...

jwkniska · #4 07-15-2007, 11:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

Looking back on that horse today, I saw how he was playable. YOu could have argued 2nd off the layoff, speed and fade, but yes I agree, it was shocking...

I had 6 winners today... but that horse was definitely NOT one of them.

onebadbeast · #5 07-15-2007, 11:46 PM

Del Mar Has Always Been A Crapshoot Anyway. So I Dont Care If They Run On Beachsand, Concrete, Coal, Or Cracked Glass; Every Race Will Have The Possibility To Make A Retirement Score!

JJP · #6 07-16-2007, 12:55 AM

I think synthetic racing will produce favorite/longshot syndrome. Winning favorites at around 40-45% but more head scratching 40-1 shots that make no sense as well. So if you like betting in the 3-1 to 12-1 range, you better look at other tracks.

Re: Frost Alert, when the field hit the backstretch, I thought something was up. How on earth could he have been 10-1? Hail Victory had cleared by at least a length at the opening call in his last 8 races.

The Indomitable DrugS · #7 07-16-2007, 12:58 AM

If the favorites win at a 40-to-45% clip at Del Mar I will be shocked.

JJP · #8 07-16-2007, 01:02 AM

It won't happen in their first meet. Same with Arlington. But eventually, when 98% of the local horse population has run over it, I wouldn't be surprised. And field size will have something to do with that as well.

Didn't Saratoga have a recent year with over 40 % winning favorites? A number of years ago, Arlington was close, and that is a long meet.

hockey2315 · #9 07-16-2007, 01:07 AM

I would be incapable of living in a world where faves win 40-45% of the time. . .

The Indomitable DrugS · #10 07-16-2007, 03:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JJP

Didn't Saratoga have a recent year with over 40 % winning favorites?

Yes, at least once. I know favorites posted incredible numbers in one of the years Pletcher had an amazing meet. I believe Dave Litfin called it "the graveyard of value" that season.

Saratoga is a meet where favorites have won at a high percentage throughout the last decade really.

docicu3 · #11 07-16-2007, 06:29 AM

Wasn't the first Keeneland meet after poly known for the early speed essentially being a liabilty with closers at long unfathomable odds paying like Xmas for those with imagination for seemingly random outcomes. Del Mar may be Xmas in July for the 40+ days this summer.....

2Hot4TV · #12 07-16-2007, 07:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by docicu3

Wasn't the first Keeneland meet after poly known for the early speed essentially being a liabilty with closers at long unfathomable odds paying like Xmas for those with imagination for seemingly random outcomes. Del Mar may be Xmas in July for the 40+ days this summer.....

The races were run like alot of turf race where all the riders waited and made that charge to the wire when they turned for home. Del Mar will be a watch and see what the riders try to do before you can handicap a race.

JJP · #13 07-16-2007, 07:41 AM

So far, we haven't seen the riding lunacity at the other synthetic meets; TP, WO and AP haven't had that.

Maybe it was a bunch of NY riders who were at Kee. Virtually every turf route in NY is run will a crawlfest pace with every rider leaning back in the irons to restrain.

Swap Fliparoo · #14 07-16-2007, 08:58 AM

I wish they'd installed cusion track... i'm not really looking forward to blindingly white surface this weekend. I swear it looked like cotton balls in the picture i saw...

10 pnt move up · #15 07-16-2007, 10:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Yes, at least once. I know favorites posted incredible numbers in one of the years Pletcher had an amazing meet. I believe Dave Litfin called it "the graveyard of value" that season.

Saratoga is a meet where favorites have won at a high percentage throughout the last decade really.

I think if you take out the turf races that number would be even higher.