Dwyer Field pretty weak

[Exceller]

Dwyer S. - Grade: 2

Distance:One And One Sixteenth Miles

Post Horse Name Age Sex Weight Jockey Name
1 Keyed Entry (KY) 3 Colt 119 John R. Velazquez
2 Dontfearthereaper (KY) 3 Gelding 115 Javier Castellano
3 Regent Spirit (FL) 3 Colt 115 Rafael Bejarano
4 Strong Contender (KY) 3 Colt 115 Edgar S. Prado
5 Da Stoops (CA) 3 Colt 115 Garrett K. Gomez
6 Doc Cheney (KY) 3 Colt 115 Eibar Coa

[Exceller]

Keyed Entry should handle these.

[1st_Saturday_in_May]

What does everyone else think about Keyed Entry's post-Derby worktab. I know not all works are recorded, but nothing between 6/6 & 6/26? Not sure that it's a big deal but I found it interesting. I like Da Stoops here. Baffert scores with 24% of shippers and wouldnt send this one in if he didnt have a good shot.

06/26/2006 BEL 4F :50.04 Dirt training Good B
06/06/2006 BEL 4F :48.24 Dirt Fast B
05/28/2006 BEL 4F :49.38 Dirt Fast B
05/21/2006 BEL 4F :48.40 Dirt Fast B

[blackthroatedwind]

I'm not sure why " Keyed Entry should handle these ". First of all, he can't get an easy lead with Da Stoops in the race. Certainly he has distance questions, especially when he isn't on the front end, and frankly it is far from clear how good he is. More often than not horses in this barn that explode at Gulfstream over the winter are unable to reproduce these performances later in their careers ( of course mostly they never seem to appear again ). Another big question for him is why he was entered in the Woody Stephens, a race he seemed on paper to fit very well, and was scratched. Indecisiveness by handlers, especially ones as competent as Keyed Entry's, doesn't strike me as a particularly positive sign.

Yeah, I agree that it's an uninspiring bunch, and I guess Keyed Entry CAN win, but at the short price he figures to be I will be looking elsewhere. Where elsewhere I don't know yet. I'll probably use three in the Pick-4, pitch Keyed Entry who will run fifth, and still lose.

[2 Dollar Bill]

Take a 4-5 cold exacta.... and watch Key Entry run third or forth

[Exceller]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm not sure why " Keyed Entry should handle these ". First of all, he can't get an easy lead with Da Stoops in the race. Certainly he has distance questions, especially when he isn't on the front end, and frankly it is far from clear how good he is. More often than not horses in this barn that explode at Gulfstream over the winter are unable to reproduce these performances later in their careers ( of course mostly they never seem to appear again ). Another big question for him is why he was entered in the Woody Stephens, a race he seemed on paper to fit very well, and was scratched. Indecisiveness by handlers, especially ones as competent as Keyed Entry's, doesn't strike me as a particularly positive sign.

Yeah, I agree that it's an uninspiring bunch, and I guess Keyed Entry CAN win, but at the short price he figures to be I will be looking elsewhere. Where elsewhere I don't know yet. I'll probably use three in the Pick-4, pitch Keyed Entry who will run fifth, and still lose.

KE put in quite an effort at 7.5F in the Hutcheson. I think 8.5F is perfect for him. More than anything, I just don't think much of anything else in the field. They probably pulled him from the Woody Stephens because they feel he has a shot at stretching out in the Haskell. I doubt it but 8.5F is perfect for him.

[Exceller]

Originally Posted by 2 Dollar Bill

Take a 4-5 cold exacta.... and watch Key Entry run third or forth

Strong Contender is much slower than Keyed Entry.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Exceller

KE put in quite an effort at 7.5F in the Hutcheson. I think 8.5F is perfect for him. More than anything, I just don't think much of anything else in the field. They probably pulled him from the Woody Stephens because they feel he has a shot at stretching out in the Haskell. I doubt it but 8.5F is perfect for him.

Using any horse's performance over a sloppy track to predict future races, especially when they have little other confirmed good form, is probably a mistake. And, how that performance, even if believable ( which I don't think it is ), makes 1 1/16th " prefect " for him is outside of my scope of reasoning. The simple fact is he has failed in both his attempts to stretch his speed and neither one were particularly tough spots. They were, I guess, good enough to win here. My biggest problem with this horse is that I strongly believe his best races are behind him.

I don't buy your reason for why he was scratched from the Woody Stephens, as he certainly could have competed in all these races, and believe the previous poster who mentionmed the gap in works is much closer to the true story.

[Exceller]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Using any horse's performance over a sloppy track to predict future races, especially when they have little other confirmed good form, is probably a mistake. And, how that performance, even if believable ( which I don't think it is ), makes 1 1/16th " prefect " for him is outside of my scope of reasoning. The simple fact is he has failed in both his attempts to stretch his speed and neither one were particularly tough spots. They were, I guess, good enough to win here. My biggest problem with this horse is that I strongly believe his best races are behind him.

I don't buy your reason for why he was scratched from the Woody Stephens, as he certainly could have competed in all these races, and believe the previous poster who mentionmed the gap in works is much closer to the true story.

Well we will know tomorrow because if he runs his race he wins easily against these slower horses. Notice JV is still on the horse so I will give the horse the benefit of the doubt considering his derby is a throw out.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Exceller

Well we will know tomorrow because if he runs his race he wins easily against these slower horses. Notice JV is still on the horse so I will give the horse the benefit of the doubt considering his derby is a throw out.

I'm confused, you think John Velasquez being on a Pletcher horse, who's also the favorite by the way ( aren't they all ), is a positive sign? He is the stable rider. Of course he's on the horse.

Yes, we will know tomorrow, but we are discussing it today. This horse will be in the even money range and, IMO, is an extremely poor bet. Of course he CAN win.

Originally Posted by Exceller

Keyed Entry should handle these.

I agree completely, especially since this is a short route event around one-turn...the only interesting thing for me will be if he is compromised early by Da Stoops....Strong Contender is really the only other horse in the field with any relative class, but I don't get good vibes about him in here....Dutrow can never be forgotten in NY for obvious reasons but his hores isn't SUPPOSED to be good enough - which means nothing when he leads them over...they still run huge....The horse that I think could surprise with the right trip is Doc Cheaney...I don't think he is of the quality of Keyed Entry and some of the better horses in here, but he showed in the Withers that he enjoys the long, one-turn trips and has the right off-the-pace style to run down Keyed Entry and Da Stoops if this turns into a staggerfest down the lane due to a hard early duel....Remember, Doc Cheney was finishing respectfully when being a well-beaten second to Bernardini in the Withers - although he never seriously threatened that horse....Keyed Entry may prove to be vulnerable because he has yet shown the ability to rate behind horses and I seriosuly doubt that Da Stoops will let him get away with an easy lead in here....Strong Contender should get the best trip behind that pair if you think he is good enough, but I have never really been a huge fan of this horse since they had to go to Arlington Park to break his maiden last year....

Originally Posted by Exceller

KE put in quite an effort at 7.5F in the Hutcheson. I think 8.5F is perfect for him. More than anything, I just don't think much of anything else in the field. They probably pulled him from the Woody Stephens because they feel he has a shot at stretching out in the Haskell. I doubt it but 8.5F is perfect for him.

8.5 furlongs around one turn is the key here...he might be the best miler or extended one-turn performer of his generation, thus I think he'll waltz in the Dwyer IF he can handle rating with the prescense of Da Stoops in the race...

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Using any horse's performance over a sloppy track to predict future races, especially when they have little other confirmed good form, is probably a mistake. And, how that performance, even if believable ( which I don't think it is ), makes 1 1/16th " prefect " for him is outside of my scope of reasoning. The simple fact is he has failed in both his attempts to stretch his speed and neither one were particularly tough spots. They were, I guess, good enough to win here. My biggest problem with this horse is that I strongly believe his best races are behind him.

I don't buy your reason for why he was scratched from the Woody Stephens, as he certainly could have competed in all these races, and believe the previous poster who mentionmed the gap in works is much closer to the true story.

I'm not sure I liked the fact he was just scratched from the Monmouth race against Henny Hughes Saturday either....to me, you want to train a horse a little different to get a niche distance like 1/16-miles around one turn versus a the sprint distance that he was cross-entered in at Monmouth Sat......I'm sure the entering at monmouth was more of an afterthought and more of just a security blanket, but still.....

As for his future, I still think that he has a monster upside and a lot of good racing in front of him IF THE DERBY DIDN'T RUIN HIM, which is a pretty big 'if' because we've seen it before....But, I'll tell you what, there was not 1 horse that looked and trained better than him the weeks leading up top the Derby at CD...not even Barbaro (they were close IMO)..Keyed Entry is a very, very good horse IMO and if 6 panels is not too shrt for his best effort then I really think he is a legitamate BC Sprint horse...we'll see......I will say that I will NOT like if he runs in the King's Bishop against the monsters he'll be in against off of the Dwyer on the turn back angle...not sure that is the best way to tackel Songster, Too Much Bling and Henny Hughes is to come in turning back like that...we might see...

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

I agree completely, especially since this is a short route event around one-turn...the only interesting thing for me will be if he is compromised early by Da Stoops....Strong Contender is really the only other horse in the field with any relative class, but I don't get good vibes about him in here....Dutrow can never be forgotten in NY for obvious reasons but his hores isn't SUPPOSED to be good enough - which means nothing when he leads them over...they still run huge....The horse that I think could surprise with the right trip is Doc Cheaney...I don't think he is of the quality of Keyed Entry and some of the better horses in here, but he showed in the Withers that he enjoys the long, one-turn trips and has the right off-the-pace style to run down Keyed Entry and Da Stoops if this turns into a staggerfest down the lane due to a hard early duel....Remember, Doc Cheney was finishing respectfully when being a well-beaten second to Bernardini in the Withers - although he never seriously threatened that horse....Keyed Entry may prove to be vulnerable because he has yet shown the ability to rate behind horses and I seriosuly doubt that Da Stoops will let him get away with an easy lead in here....Strong Contender should get the best trip behind that pair if you think he is good enough, but I have never really been a huge fan of this horse since they had to go to Arlington Park to break his maiden last year....

Joel thats nonsense about Dutrow. He has teh same percentages at Delaware, Monmouth, Florida, etc. Its not like his horses only run well in NY(and like everywhere else his horses dont run well much more often then they run well). To represent this as such is ridiculously inaccurate.

[2 Dollar Bill]

Originally Posted by Exceller

Strong Contender is much slower than Keyed Entry.

Sometimes the turtle beats the rabit...LOL... I hope pletcher gives this horse a rest.

Keyed Entry is just an overrated horse. He had a good race down in Florida on a wet track. He hasnt done crap since. Heck, that race was in Feb or March I believe. That is way too far back for me. Maybe just maybe Keyed Entry isnt any good.

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Keyed Entry is just an overrated horse. He had a good race down in Florida on a wet track. He hasnt done crap since. Heck, that race was in Feb or March I believe. That is way too far back for me. Maybe just maybe Keyed Entry isnt any good.

Euro I thought you were sharper than that.
Horses get affected by injuries or overexertion and the ill advised attempt at the Derby was obviously his undoing. Was he ever going to be a top class router? no. Was he going to be a very good miler and middle distance horse, yes.

Originally Posted by oracle80

Euro I thought you were sharper than that.
Horses get affected by injuries or overexertion and the ill advised attempt at the Derby was obviously his undoing. Was he ever going to be a top class router? no. Was he going to be a very good miler and middle distance horse, yes.

What indication, if any, has showed that Keyed Entry would have been a good miler or middle distance horse? I dont see it...maybe I am missing something but this horse just hasnt progressed during 2006. He didnt look all that good during Derby week and he got injured during the Derby. But he hasnt shown anything to me that suggests he would have been a good miler or middle distance horse. Throw out the Hutchenson and make your case.

Originally Posted by eurobounce

What indication, if any, has showed that Keyed Entry would have been a good miler or middle distance horse? I dont see it...maybe I am missing something but this horse just hasnt progressed during 2006. He didnt look all that good during Derby week and he got injured during the Derby. But he hasnt shown anything to me that suggests he would have been a good miler or middle distance horse. Throw out the Hutchenson and make your case.

His Gotham got him a great number as well on the sheets and he ran a big race there. IN the Wood he was cutting the pace on a track that highly favored outside closers, the rail was quicksand that day, so that race is basically a throwout. YOu can't just forget the Gotham and Hutch and nothing is crazier than condemning a horse because he obviously is hurting.

I'm not saying he was gonna be Dr ***er but he obviously had lots of ability. The Derby has ruined a lot of very good horses.