Haydock on Saturday

[my miss storm cat]

Damn this is a nice little field!


Haydock - Saturday 11 August
Going: Good to Firm, Firm in places

14:35
7 Run Totepool Rose Of Lancaster Stakes (group 3)
Class 1, £65000.00 added, 3yo plus, £36907.00 penalty 1m 2f 120y
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Form Horse Trainer Age Wgt Jockey
1(3) 112702 Formal Decree (GER) Saeed bin Suroor 4 9 7 N Callan
2(7) 6-16356 Kandidate C E Brittain 5 9 7 E Ahern
3(6) 211-121 Blue Ksar (FR) Saeed bin Suroor 4 9 3 K McEvoy
4(4) 301050 Halicarnassus (IRE) M R Channon 3 8 7 D Holland
5(1) 123010 Hearthstead Maison (IRE) M Johnston 3 8 7 Greg Fairley
6(5) 106434 Rudry Dragon (IRE) P A Blockley 3 8 7 K Ghunowa
7(2) 113111 Zaham (USA) M Johnston 3 8 7 R Hills


Betting Forecast: 7/4 Blue Ksar (FR), 3/1 Formal Decree (GER), 7/2 Kandidate, 6/1 Zaham (USA), 12/1 Hearthstead Maison (IRE), 14/1 Halicarnassus (IRE), 66/1 Rudry Dragon (IRE)


FORMWATCH
FORMAL DECREE (GER) (9-6) Chased leader, led briefly 2f out, kept on when headed, 2nd of 9, 3l behind Soldier Hollow (9-6) at Munich 1m 2f stk gd in Jul.
KANDIDATE 50-1 (9-7) Held up, headway over 1f out, no extra, 6th of 8, 8l behind Notnowcato (9-7) at Sandown 1m 2f Grp 1 (1) gs in Jul.
BLUE KSAR (FR) Evensfav (9-5) Tracked leader, led over 1f out, soon shaken up, ran on well, won at Pontefract 1m lst stk (1) gs in Jul beating Contentious (8-2) by 2 1/2l, 6 ran.
HALICARNASSUS (IRE) 16-1 (9-5) Mid-division, ridden 3f out, weakened 1f out, 12th of 17, 10l behind Pipedreamer (8-4) at Goodwood 1m 2f 3yo hcp (2) gd.
HEARTHSTEAD MAISON (IRE) 8-1 (9-4) Held up, ridden over 2f out, no impression, 15th of 17, 11l behind Pipedreamer (8-4) at Goodwood 1m 2f 3yo hcp (2) gd.
RUDRY DRAGON (IRE) 16-1 (9-2) Keen hold, tracked winner for 2f, stayed handy, ridden and stayed on same pace final 2f, 4th of 14, 3 1/2l behind Oceana Gold (9-0) at Sandown 1m 3yo hcp (4) gd.
ZAHAM (USA) 7-2fav (9-2) Led for 1f, tracked leader, challenged over 1f out, soon led, strongly pressed and held on gamely throughout final furlong, won at Ascot 1m 2f 3yo lst stk (1) gf in Jun beating Al Shemali (9-2) by a hd, 14 ran.



Good luck to the big 3... Blue Ksar (7 Stars points!), Kandidate (try to win for Gallant) and Formal Decree (good boy).

COME HOME SAFE.

[NoChanceToDance]

Interesting to see them drop Kandidate to gr3 level. If he is on a going day, they won't see which way he goes and he will win 10 lengths. However, he is a tough horse to win with, so you couldn't put all your confidence in him to do the job.

Callan rides Formal Decree? Must be his first ride for Godolphin. He wouldn't be out of this, but unlike Kandidate, he might find giving weight away to in form rivals too dificult. Blue Ksar won very nicely last time, but that was only a listed race, this looks much tougher. He failed to justify market support in a similar race at Epsom earlier this summer and he may find one or two too good for him tomorrow.

If it turns out to be a tactical race (which is unlikely), Halicarnassus would have a squeek, but he hasn't shown enough form this year to suggest he will be up to winning this.

Hearthstead Maison. Well, what i can i say about him other than he is HUGE. Have you seen this fella run? He is so big his legs could be in four different countries. Doesn't stop him running fast though, he might not be quite good enough, but he will certainly give it his all.

Rudry Dragon...... well, he will complete in his own time.

Zaham has been one of my favourites this year. He has everything you want in a racehorse, speed, class and guts. He often takes to the lead (or close to it) and just stays there by fighting off any horses that want to challenge him. He is well up to gr3 standard. He gets a stone from Formal Decree and Kandidate and i think he is the most likely winner.

This race revolves around Kandidate, though. This is his easiest task for sometime now and if he is in the right mood he may take some stopping.

Between Kandidate and Zaham for me.

[my miss storm cat]

Damnit, Blue Ksar was scratched.

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

Damnit, Blue Ksar was scratched.

Yeah, i was just about to post that. Ground is probably too firm for him.

[NoChanceToDance]

Lots of money for Formal Decree throughout the morning. Looks like a bold show is expected of him.

Might also have been the reason for Blue Ksar getting scratched.

Still Zaham for me, with Kandidate being the danger if he is in the right mood.

[_ed_]

I like Zaham here too, don't know a great deal about the horse but he was so impressive at Ascot.

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by _ed_

I like Zaham here too, don't know a great deal about the horse but he was so impressive at Ascot.

He is all guts. He never seems to know when he his beaten and seems to thrive on racing. He is a typical Mark Johnston horse really.

This is his toughest race so far (graded wise), but he receives a lot of weight from Formal Decree and Kandidate and i think that will prove the difference between winning and losing. He is only about 6/4 though, so i don't think i will bet him.

[NoChanceToDance]

The betting patterns are suggesting that Zaham has lost a leg and Formal Decree has got an extra one.

I don't like betting in races when Godolphin and Sheikh Hamdan both have runners, you never really know when that happens.

On betting alone you have to say that Formal Decree has already won!

[NoChanceToDance]

Zaham leads early, Hearthstead maison second

Both formal decree and kandidate very keen early (why isn't kandidate leading?)

Zaham still leads, formal decree closed to third.

entering the straight Zaham travels well, followed by hearthstead maison
formal decree third

Formal dcree gets the lead

Very messy race, zaham get sandwiched.

Halicarnassus comes from a mile back to fly by and take it, squashing hearthstead maison and zaham in the process.

[NoChanceToDance]

Shocked by the result, but he did it nicely in the end.

Formal Decree held on for second from Zaham in third.

Winner was by far the best horse today though, even if he did squeeze up the third and fourth horses.


Edit: Kandidate was very disappointing, i don't know why he didn't lead early? He is becoming a very frustrating horse