BC Analysis: BYK Style

[Scav]

Here is my analysis of every BC race, Byk style with a Scav twist. These plays are focused on DD, P3, P4 and exactas. Considered it Fast/Firm. Good luck to all.

8th: F/M Sprint, 6f Dirt
Best Value: #1 Miss Macy Sue - 6/1
Most Likely: #7 La Traviata - 5/2
Exotics Use: #10 Baroness Thatcher - 12/1
Exotics Use: #4 Maryfield - 15/1

8: 7
9: 4,5,8,9,10
10: 1,3

9th: Juv. Turf, 8f Turf
Best Value: #4 Cherokee Traingle - 10/1
Most Likely: #8 Achill Island - 7/2
Exotics Use: #9 Prussian - 3/1
Exotics Use: #5 Strike the Deal - 9/2

BOMB Alert: #10 Preachin Man - 50/1: Has some solid dirt figures and while not bred for the lawn, his progression and fig power merit a look

10th: Dirt Mile, 8f and 70 yards Dirt
Best Value: #3 Wanderin Boy - 8/1
Most Likely: #1 Discreet Cat - 2/1
Exotics Use: #6 Gottcha Gold - 8/1
Exotics Use: #7 Park Avenue Ball - 15/1

4th: Juv Fillies, 8.5f Dirt
Best Value: #9 Smarty Deb - 30/1
Most Likely: #10 Proud Spell - 5/1
Exotics Use: #8 Izarra - 6/1
Exotics Use: #12 Grace Anatomy - 10/1 (would have been 'Most Likely' but she is pretty much screwed that far out, has a beautiful sheet)

4: 8,9,10,12
5: 2,4,7,9,10,11,13
6: 2,9
7: 1,8

5th: Juv Colts, 8.5f Dirt
Best Value: #4 Slew's Tiznow - 15/1
Most Likely: #7 Pyro - 6/1
Exotics Use: #9 Old Man Buck - 20/1
Exotics Use: #2 War Pass - 5/2

Note: #10 Tale of Ekati (7/2) - Obviously live with his monster work but just don't know if he ran his race before. Bred to love the slop and should be included on all tickets

5: 2,4,7,9,10
6: 2,7,9,12
7: 1,4,6,8

6th: F/M Turf, 11f Turf
Best Value: #12 Precious Kitten - 30/1
Most Likely: #9 Danzon - 12/1
Exotics Use: #2 Honey Ryder 9/2
Exotics Use: #7 Argentina - 12/1

6: 2,9,12
7: 1,4,6,8
8: 3,4,5,8,12

7th: Sprint, 6f Dirt
Best Value: #4 Talent Search - 15/1
Most Likely: #1 Smokey Stover - 7/2
Exotics Use: #8 Benny the Bull - 6/1
Exotics Use: #6 Commentator - 12/1

7: 1,4,6,8
8: 3,4,5,6,8,9,12,13
9: 5,8

8th: Mile: 8f Turf
Best Value: #12 Purim - 20/1
Most Likely: #13 Excellent Art - 3/1
Exotics Use: #14 Remarkable News - 12/1
Exotics Use: #6 Trippi's Storm - 8/1

8: 5,9,12,13,14
9: 4,5,8,12
10: 7
11: 2,3,4

8: 3,5,8
9: 4,5,8,12
10: 4 (I would include with the above ticket if your funds allow)
11: 2,3,4

Note: This race is absolutely impossible. All but the Rebellion, Icy Atlantic, My Typhoon, and Silent Name have a shot at winning. This is a race I would recommend going as deep as you possibly can because the favorite might end up at 6/1

9th: Distaff, 9f Dirt
Best Value: #8 Octave - 10/1
Most Likely: #5 Lady Joanne - 6/1
Exotics Use: #12 Hystericallady - 8/1
Exotics Use: #4 Ginger Punch - 7/2

9: 4,5,8,12
10: 4,7
11: 2,3,4

Note: Hystericallady would have been my best bet of the day given she has a very powerful sheet (One that shows she is slower on poly but explodes on real dirt) but given her post, she is hard to play out there

10th: Turf, 12f Turf
Best Value: #4 Shamdinan - 20/1
Most Likely: #7 Dylan Thomas - 7/5
Exotics Use: #2 Red Rocks - 7/2
Exotics Use: #6 English Channel - 5/2

Note: Shamdinan is even a better play with it predicted to be soft, he relished the going at Arlington which I think was more towards yielding then good

11th: Classic, 10f Dirt
Best Value: #3 Any Given Saturday - 3/1
Most Likely: #4 Curlin - 3/1
Exotics Use: #2 Street Sense - 3/1
Exotics Use: #1 Lawyer Ron - 5/2

[gales0678]

scav - no love come on man - lear's princess is going to get it done, high finance may suprise, awesome gem is going to run huge at 30/1 or more in the classic make sure you use him
Dream Rush will be in tough i'm stayin away and irish Smoke has distance concerns

[geeker2]

Scav good job..putting it out there..BB of the day?

[brianwspencer]

Scav,

From my preliminary looks through things, and from reading your choices -- you and I are going to have some VERY similar tickets come Saturday.

[Scav]

I'll be doing some updating of this based on the sloppy/soft going that is predicted. F'n rain.

[zippyneedsawin]

Scav, I'm sorry to tell you that I agree with many of your picks (especially the last 3 or 4 races). So, I hope I didn't just jinx you!

[Scav]

Here is my analysis of every BC race, Byk style with a Scav twist. These plays are focused on DD, P3, P4 and exactas. Considered it Fast/Firm. Good luck to all.

8th: F/M Sprint, 6f Dirt
Best Value: #1 Miss Macy Sue - 6/1 = 3rd
Most Likely: #7 La Traviata - 5/2
Exotics Use: #10 Baroness Thatcher - 12/1
Exotics Use: #4 Maryfield - 15/1 = 1st = $18.00

8: 7
9: 4,5,8,9,10
10: 1,3

9th: Juv. Turf, 8f Turf
Best Value: #4 Cherokee Traingle - 10/1
Most Likely: #8 Achill Island - 7/2 = 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Prussian - 3/1
Exotics Use: #5 Strike the Deal - 9/2

BOMB Alert: #10 Preachin Man - 50/1: Has some solid dirt figures and while not bred for the lawn, his progression and fig power merit a look

10th: Dirt Mile, 8f and 70 yards Dirt
Best Value: #3 Wanderin Boy - 8/1
Most Likely: #1 Discreet Cat - 2/1 - 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Gottcha Gold - 8/1 - 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Park Avenue Ball - 15/1

4th: Juv Fillies, 8.5f Dirt
Best Value: #9 Smarty Deb - 30/1
Most Likely: #10 Proud Spell - 5/1 - 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Izarra - 6/1
Exotics Use: #12 Grace Anatomy - 10/1 (would have been 'Most Likely' but she is pretty much screwed that far out, has a beautiful sheet)

4: 8,9,10,12
5: 2,4,7,9,10,11,13
6: 2,9
7: 1,8

5th: Juv Colts, 8.5f Dirt
Best Value: #4 Slew's Tiznow - 15/1
Most Likely: #7 Pyro - 6/1 - 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Old Man Buck - 20/1
Exotics Use: #2 War Pass - 5/2 - 1st

Note: #10 Tale of Ekati (7/2) - Obviously live with his monster work but just don't know if he ran his race before. Bred to love the slop and should be included on all tickets

5: 2,4,7,9,10
6: 2,7,9,12
7: 1,4,6,8

6th: F/M Turf, 11f Turf
Best Value: #12 Precious Kitten - 30/1
Most Likely: #9 Danzon - 12/1
Exotics Use: #2 Honey Ryder 9/2 - 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Argentina - 12/1

6: 2,9,12
7: 1,4,6,8
8: 3,4,5,8,12

7th: Sprint, 6f Dirt
Best Value: #4 Talent Search - 15/1 -3rd
Most Likely: #1 Smokey Stover - 7/2
Exotics Use: #8 Benny the Bull - 6/1 - 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Commentator - 12/1

7: 1,4,6,8
8: 3,4,5,6,8,9,12,13
9: 5,8

8th: Mile: 8f Turf
Best Value: #12 Purim - 20/1
Most Likely: #13 Excellent Art - 3/1 - 2nd
Exotics Use: #14 Remarkable News - 12/1
Exotics Use: #6 Trippi's Storm - 8/1

8: 5,9,12,13,14
9: 4,5,8,12
10: 7
11: 2,3,4

8: 3,5,8
9: 4,5,8,12
10: 4 (I would include with the above ticket if your funds allow)
11: 2,3,4

Note: This race is absolutely impossible. All but the Rebellion, Icy Atlantic, My Typhoon, and Silent Name have a shot at winning. This is a race I would recommend going as deep as you possibly can because the favorite might end up at 6/1

9th: Distaff, 9f Dirt
Best Value: #8 Octave - 10/1 - 3rd
Most Likely: #5 Lady Joanne - 6/1 - 4th
Exotics Use: #12 Hystericallady - 8/1 - 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Ginger Punch - 7/2 - 1st

$1 Exa = $70.80
$1 Tri = $534.70
$1 Super = $3,418.50

9: 4,5,8,12
10: 4,7
11: 2,3,4

Note: Hystericallady would have been my best bet of the day given she has a very powerful sheet (One that shows she is slower on poly but explodes on real dirt) but given her post, she is hard to play out there

10th: Turf, 12f Turf
Best Value: #4 Shamdinan - 20/1 -2nd
Most Likely: #7 Dylan Thomas - 7/5
Exotics Use: #2 Red Rocks - 7/2 -3rd
Exotics Use: #6 English Channel - 5/2 -1st

Note: Shamdinan is even a better play with it predicted to be soft, he relished the going at Arlington which I think was more towards yielding then good

$1 Exa = $76
$1 Tri = $282.70

11th: Classic, 10f Dirt
Best Value: #3 Any Given Saturday - 3/1
Most Likely: #4 Curlin - 3/1 - 1st
Exotics Use: #2 Street Sense - 3/1
Exotics Use: #1 Lawyer Ron - 5/2

For some reason I can't edit my above post so I just copied it to keep track