10/31: AQU ($78k Carryover)

Kasept · #1 10-30-2007, 10:09 AM

$78,000 in the carryover pot Wednesday and a terrific set of mid-week races including eye-popping group in C/ALW 7th.. A really enjoyable sextet to cap as we get back to business post-Cup.. Will recap BC seperately, but despite identifying Value Play Maryfield Friday and War Pass, Midnight Lute, Kip Deville and Curlin as the Most Likely Winners Saturday, I struggled to catch tris/supers and multis.. Lost $200 on the weekend and came away feeling like this 24th Cup was a missed opportunity.. Hope you did well..

AQUEDUCT

4th: MSW, 2yo, 1m-T (P6, P3)

Best Value: #4 Tre Cool 12-1
Most Likely: #7 Titan of Industry 2-1 WON
Exotics Use: #8 Manitowish Waters 5-2
Other/Super: #3 Littleboy Brew 12-1

5th: CLM, 3yo-F, 6f (P3, GS)

Best Value: #1e Jackson (Contessa) entry 5-1
Most Likely: #2 Tzipi 3-1
Exotics Use: #7 Scuttlebutt 7-2
Other/Super: #6 Bedside Story 5-2

<$50 Early P4 Play:

2: 4-8
3: 4-9
4: 3-4-7-8
5: 1-2-7

2x2x4x3 = $48

6th: NYB-MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, DD, .10 Super)

Best Value: #1 Wise Choice 12-1
Most Likely: #7 Sweet Bama Breeze 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 SCR
Other/Super: #8 City of Lights 8-1 WON

.10 Super Play: Key 1 1st/2nd/3rd/4th w/ 2-3-7-8 (1x4x3x2 = 24 x 4 = 96/10 = $9.60)

7th: OC/C, 3+, 1m-T (P3)

Best Value: #5 Ground Hero 8-1 WON
Most Likely: #1e Godolphin entry 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Sensational Humor 6-1 2nd
Other/Super: #8 Perfect Casting 3-1 4th

8th: NYB-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6f (DD, .10 Super)

Best Value: #8 Smokin Sarah 10-1 WON
Most Likely: #5 Sort of Tricky 7-5 (Tough to pass on by Halloween)
Exotics Use: #7 Tomorrow's Nano 7-2
Other/Super: #4 SCR

.10 Super Play: Key 5 1st/2nd w/ 2-3-7-8 (1x4x3x2 = 24 x 2 = 48/10 = $4.80)

9th: S/ALW, 3+, 1m-T (.10 Super)

Best Value: #2 Sly 10-1
Most Likely: #5 Sound Doctrine 6-1
Exotics Use: #3 Romp 9-2
Other/Super: #7 Bright Illusion 12-1

.10 Super Play: Key 5 1st/2nd/3rd with 2-3-4-7-9 (1x5x4x3 = 60 x 3 = 180/10 = $18.00)

<$75 P6 Play:

4: 4-7-8
5: 2
6: 1-(6 SCR)-7-8
7: 1-5-6
8: 5
9: 5

3x1x3x3x1x1 = 27 x $2 = $54

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 1-(6 SCR)-7-8
7: 1-5-6
8: 5
9: 2-3-5-7

3x3x1x4 = $36

Good luck!
Steve

pmacdaddy · #2 10-30-2007, 01:08 PM

Glad to see you're cappin' Aqueduct. I'm hoping to spend some time with the Form tonight.

Will you be going as the "South Ozone Park Strangler" for Halloween tomorrow?

pointman · #3 10-31-2007, 12:43 AM

Steve, I am glad to see that you are capping Aqueduct as well, hope to see you get as red hot as you were at the last meet.

Kasept · #4 10-31-2007, 04:38 AM

AQU selections posted as edit above.. Changes/scratches pending.. Fun card..

NoLuvForPletch · #5 10-31-2007, 09:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

AQU selections posted as edit above.. Changes/scratches pending.. Fun card..

Steve,

Why did you decide to dismiss Kiaran's horse in the 7th? I actually took his comments on the show Monday night to be a "ringing endorsement" without so much as saying so. He is usually pretty straight forward. You'll get the old "he probably needs a race" from him when they need one. Numerous times at Saratoga when asked about horses he stated the old "he probably needs a race" and sure enough they did. But I didn't hear that yesterday, and the "I've had him long enough to know he's a nice horse" got me a little excited about getting a little bit of a price. Only thing I didn't like was no Garcia or Bravo aboard, and he looks much better than the one Garcia is riding.

Kasept · #6 10-31-2007, 10:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

Steve,

Why did you decide to dismiss Kiaran's horse in the 7th? I actually took his comments on the show Monday night to be a "ringing endorsement" without so much as saying so. He is usually pretty straight forward. You'll get the old "he probably needs a race" from him when they need one. Numerous times at Saratoga when asked about horses he stated the old "he probably needs a race" and sure enough they did. But I didn't hear that yesterday, and the "I've had him long enough to know he's a nice horse" got me a little excited about getting a little bit of a price. Only thing I didn't like was no Garcia or Bravo aboard, and he looks much better than the one Garcia is riding.

I wavered back and forth about him and Rabatash. It's a very tough race. Waiting for scratches which might help. First pass at the P4 had both the 2 & 3, but I couldn't make the play work. If I play the 4 I'll likely use them. The Godolphin entry looks to be real; I like the two prices (Sensational Humor and Ground Hero); and the favorite while vulnerable, isn't a stiff either. This is why I was so stunned when I came across the race Monday. It's a corker...

Kasept · #7 10-31-2007, 11:15 AM

SCR/CHG's:

http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/AQU-changes.asp

markguz6 · #8 10-31-2007, 11:41 AM

I need some winner

philcski · #9 10-31-2007, 01:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

I wavered back and forth about him and Rabatash. It's a very tough race. Waiting for scratches which might help. First pass at the P4 had both the 2 & 3, but I couldn't make the play work. If I play the 4 I'll likely use them. The Godolphin entry looks to be real; I like the two prices (Sensational Humor and Ground Hero); and the favorite while vulnerable, isn't a stiff either. This is why I was so stunned when I came across the race Monday. It's a corker...

agreed, extremely difficult and enjoyable card for an Aqueduct Wednesday. The turfer is particularly hard, I can make a case for just about everyone except the 10.

Think the 9 rates a strong look at a price as well. Might not be good enough to win but can catch a piece at 15-1

NoLuvForPletch · #10 10-31-2007, 04:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

Steve,

Why did you decide to dismiss Kiaran's horse in the 7th? I actually took his comments on the show Monday night to be a "ringing endorsement" without so much as saying so. He is usually pretty straight forward. You'll get the old "he probably needs a race" from him when they need one. Numerous times at Saratoga when asked about horses he stated the old "he probably needs a race" and sure enough they did. But I didn't hear that yesterday, and the "I've had him long enough to know he's a nice horse" got me a little excited about getting a little bit of a price. Only thing I didn't like was no Garcia or Bravo aboard, and he looks much better than the one Garcia is riding.

I guess Kiaran left out a word on Monday when decribing this horse, he meant to say "I've had him long enough to know he's a nice RANK horse". It was in black and white too, he was rank in 3 of his 4 races overseas. BLAH. I tossed the 5 in favor of him, smooth. Didn't like that he was still for sale after running 3 pretty good ones in his return to the races. With all of the overnights being written in these parts I would think they wouldn't want to risk a useful horse like that. Oh well, onto tomorrow. Good Luck in the remaining two races Steve.

PSH · #11 10-31-2007, 04:18 PM

Had a nice win bet on the 5, just the way it has been going for me...
Was the DQ warrented? Did not see the race...

PSH

NoLuvForPletch · #12 10-31-2007, 04:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PSH

Had a nice win bet on the 5, just the way it has been going for me...
Was the DQ warrented? Did not see the race...

PSH

Looked like he came out and bumped the 6 mid-stretch. Taking down JV Jr for Coa? Yikes!!!

pmacdaddy · #13 10-31-2007, 08:29 PM

Some nice calls today Steve! Keep it rollin for tomorrow.

Ultimately didn't get to play today, but have to admit I was releived to see Ambassador Dan run second in finale as I had him on my proposed ticket. He was a $47K will pay and would have completed my ticket.

Here is what I e-mailed to pointman this AM. Thankfully our non-play worked out for us today.

R6 - 1,7,8 (great value on #1)
R7 - 1,5,6 (trust Byk here)
R8 - 5,8 (like to see JV tapped on Sarah)
R9 - 2,3,5,9 (Dan was strong wiring field last, cuts back going third off at BIG price).
$72

Missing that one would have put me over the edge. Save those bullets for CO...