11/6: Churchill (Late P4)

[Kasept]

Election Day treat at the Downs Tuesday should be the focus for players with a highly attractive late quartet... Don't forget $154,000+ carryover at Aqueduct Wednesday! (And more importantly, don't forget to vote...)


CHURCHILL DOWNS


7th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Being termed the best maiden race of the year around the Downs this week..

Best Value: #3 Mr Maccool 15-1: Slick Foley gets them going 3rd lifetime.. 2nd
Most Likely: #7 Holy Humor 4-1: Pletcher-WinStar-DistHumor-2nd out..
Exotics Use: #5 Sacred Journey 5-1: $325k Stewart first brings bullets.. 4th
Super Add: #4 Credit Only 3-1: Margolis bay looks useful at underlay tab.. WON

$1 Exacta 4-3 $47.60


8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Pure Star 4-1: McPeek good at holding winning form.. 3rd
Most Likely: #3 Star of Luvina 3-1: Figures prominent if ready on return..
Exotics Use: #5 Stars Portent 9-2: Next logical include after top pair.. 2nd
Super Add: #2 Awsugahnow 6-1: Making a career of finishing 4th.. WON

$1 Exacta 2-5 $32.50
$1 Trifecta Box $124.30


9th: ALW/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Sea of Trees 15-1: Bay first time DWL; Not impossible..
Most Likely: #7 Storm Treasure 3-1: Back to circle last after an eternity.. WON
Exotics Use: #1 Trimaran 7-2: Frankel grey has faced quality company..
Super Add: #2 Malameeze 8-1: The male 'Awsugah'; Have always liked him.. 2nd

$1 Exacta 7-2 $57.90


10th: S/ALW, 2yo, 6.5f (Super)

Best Value: #5 Dr. W 9-2: Ro Parra procurement goes 1st Asmussen.. 2nd
Most Likely: #2 Possibi 4-1: Maker's Posse bay manhandled Presque babies.. WON
Exotics Use: #8 Cape Hatteras 3-1: Overbrook gave up fast on Cape Town homebred.. 3rd
Super Add: #4 Executive Chief 12-1: McCann Chief Seattle broke maiden here.. 4th

$1 Exacta 2-5 $25.30
$1 Trifecta Box 2-5-8 $102.30
$1 Superfecta 2-5-8-4 $608.10


<$50 P4 Play:

7: 3-4-5-6-7-11
8: 3-4
9: 1-7
10: 2-5

6x2x2x2 = $48


Good luck!
Steve

[VOL JACK]

I had a look to the Lukas in the feature as well. Like that Kent D took the mount, that is if he is trying this race.
Wouldn't leave Self Made Man out of the P4 play. Good value with J Lep going elsewhere. Robby's a capable replacment.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

I had a look to the Lukas in the feature as well. Like that Kent D took the mount, that is if he is trying this race.
Wouldn't leave Self Made Man out of the P4 play. Good value with J Lep going elsewhere. Robby's a capable replacment.

Did include Self Made Man in P4 as it happens, as well as the Romans candidate Salt Water. This is one that looks tougher than it likely turns out to be...

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Did include Self Made Man in P4 as it happens, as well as the Romans candidate Salt Water. This is one that looks tougher than it likely turns out to be...

I cant believe you left me out of your ticket

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I cant believe you left me out of your ticket

You're out there touting Dallas!

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Kasept

You're out there touting Dallas!

"he trains like a pretty good horse" wink, wink... Do you need the special secret decoder ring?

6f may too short but he should at least be in the top 6....it is a hooves like play

[pmacdaddy]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I cant believe you left me out of your ticket

And went 6 deep to boot...

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

"he trains like a pretty good horse" wink, wink... Do you need the special secret decoder ring?

6f may too short but he should at least be in the top 6....it is a hooves like play

OK then.. Here are 'Makutus' P3/P4 back-ups:

$20 P3 Play:

7: 2
8: 3-4
9: 1-7

1x2x2 = 4 x $5 = $20


$20 P4 Play:

7: 2
8: 3-5
9: 7
10: 2-5

1x2x1x2 = 4 x $5 = $20

[KY_Sasquash]

late pick 4

3,5,7
3,5
1,4,10
2,5

I purchased the DRF PP's from Twinspires and they won't load. I called customer service and they won't e-mail me the damn thing.

I give up. Good luck today to those playing.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

"he trains like a pretty good horse" wink, wink... Do you need the special secret decoder ring?

6f may too short but he should at least be in the top 6....it is a hooves like play

Especially when you consider how often Steve, apparently, loves his fifth or sixth choice.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Especially when you consider how often Steve, apparently, loves his fifth or sixth choice.

May take a 7th or 8th in what is being called the toughest Maiden race at the Downs this year..

[blackthroatedwind]

I look forward to betting against a hot Dallas Stewart firster in any race....much less a tough one.

Solid maiden heat brings a contentious dozen and among them is SALT WATER. Pricy Yonaguska charge sports exceptional win early genes and Romans thought enough of this one to take him north. Work pattern indicates a big strong individual and Kent D. takes the reins. Credit Only is the one to beat, gets Robby and comes in on a perfect schedule, Sacred Honor is a full to a monster and although Stewarts, firsters generally need one UN B Song colt could not be working any better. Mr. Maccool has experience and will run a new top, Mr. Serious gets the fence, Raffie and halloween half portends for good things and Makutus who sports an odd work history but Oct 13 half mile certainly means this one can scoot even if more ground is needed. Lastly Holy Humor for team TAP with a DH colt and barn awesome with this work pattern. Seven long.

8) The speed here took a hit with the scratch of the rail filly but there should be enough gas for Calvin to run them down on AWSUGAHNOW. Thrice second this class to fillies that would smoke these. Last cross state a bit too far and Ian white hot. Also STARS PORTENT who comes out of the same race and blowout since makes this one live for McGee and longtime clients.

9) SLAM MY HEART would appear to have these over a barrel. Late foal by Grand Slam raced well for Maker who shipped to Ocala for the stake and as this sire has proven repeatedly they can come unglued at any time. Fractious and no factor before shipped to Chicago for another stake, before Mountaineer cakewalk. Horses get nervous when things do not go right and the Arlington soft turf did this one in when coming unglued again. Mike and Ron decide to run for 50K and Romans grabs him after easy score at even money. Fixed, shipped to California colt runs for 80K and explodes late but cannot reel in loose speed with the rail out, yet closes last furlong substantially faster than Multiple Graded Stakeswinner After Market, later on card. Back to Chicago for one turn mile filled with trouble, then Keeneland nine panel test with Guidry up and colt breaks sharp and is eased back off loose cannon bug and loses a bit of position yet still comes home faster than Vacare and Purim later on same card. Racing in the two path today and this one figures a good voyage and if so the one to beat.

Nightcap

Dr. W should have little trouble with this bunch. Given a couple by Gomez before being blinkered and tagged up. Cat thief colt ran very well behind runaway winner. Moved up in class for score at fifteen to one running down a 7-10 shot, before catching Yelt who has won about ten in a row. Worked back ten days out and passing vet check lands in Assmussen barn for Parra after usual clever TG recommendation. Stable jock up after excellent work pattern.. the days best at a short number. Not a difficult sequence to cap; maybe to hit. Call it 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 / 2,5 / 9 / 5 BBB

[blackthroatedwind]

Uh-oh.....I singled the same horse as BBB in the finale. Stevie Wonder gave him to me.

2,6 and 7 in the first leg for me.

7 deep to get the 3rd choice. Not bad, Todd.

[blackthroatedwind]

I think I'll fool around in the 8th with Lilly Carson. She was cut out to be a good horse after her first two races and obviously has had her share of problems. She switches to a trainer who seems to race mostly at smaller Ohio tracks but he has good numbers and at a big price why not. Used her with the 2, 3 and a little 8.

Over a barrel is kind of a sexual overtone. Looks like he's the bottom today though.

[Kasept]

Heartbreaker missing this P4.. $1426.90 for a $1..

[3kings]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Heartbreaker missing this P4.. $1426.90 for a $1..

Great handicapping Steve. You hit all four exacta's, 2 tri's, and a super. Don't be to hard on yourself for not bagging the P4. If you keep having all the winners its only a matter of time until you get a little luckier with your ticket structure.