11/10: CRC (FL Millions); Mrs. Revere (CD)

[Kasept]

Florida Millions at Calder Saturday, a day that frequently sees wacky winners... The Mrs. Revere is at Churchill one of the weekend's highlights with The Guid, an ATR guest Frisday, saying goodbye. Great betting affair..


CALDER


4th: O'Farrell Juvy Fillies, 2yo-F, 7f (P4, P3, Super)

Best Value: #7 American Asset 5-1 6th
Most Likely: #5 Silk Ridge 9-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 High Resolve 2-1 WON
Super/Other: #1 Banga Ridge 12-1 4th


5th: Jack Price Juvy, 2yo, 7f (P3, Super)

Best Value: #6 Smoke'n Coal 8-5 4th
Most Likely: #4 Wise Answer 6-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 He's Eze 12-1 WON


6th: John Franks Juvy Fillies Turf, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P3, Super)

Best Value: #5 Robbie's Gal 6-1 2nd
Most Likely: #1 Awesome Dreamer 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Calico Bay 3-1 4th
Super/Other: #4 Elle Cashareau 2-1 5th


7th: Jack Dudley Sprint, 3+, 6f (P3, Super)

Best Value: #6 Guapeton 3-1 5th
Most Likely: #1 Finallymadeit 9-5 WON
Exotics Use: #4 Blue Pepsi Lodge 6-1 3rd


<$50 P4 Play:

4: 1-4-5-6-7
5: 4
6: 1-3-4-5-7
7: 1-6

5x1x5x2 = $50


8th: Appleton Juvy Turf, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, Super)

Best Value: #6 SR. HENRY 10-1 2nd
Most Likely: #9 SCR
Exotics Use: #1 SCR
Super/Other: #4 Dynhocracy 6-1 WON


9th: Heubeck Distaf H., F&M-3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, Super)

Best Value: #5 Cat Can Do 3-1 8th
Most Likely: #2 Annabill 5-2 WON
Exotics Use: #4 Saffronista 6-1 4th
Super/Other: #7 Mecke Daughter 10-1 9th


10th: Heath Turf Cup H., 3+, 9f-T (P3, Super)

Best Value: #1 Soldier's Dancer 5-1 2nd
Most Likely: #10 Revved Up 3-1 WON
Exotics Use: #5 Magic Mecke 6-1 5th
Super/Other: #8 Jet Propulsion 4-1 4th


11th: Carl Rose Classic H., 3+, 9f (DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Summer Book 5-1 2nd
Most Likely: #3 Electrify 3-1 WON
Exotics Use: #5 Yes He's the Man 4-1 6th
Super/Other: #7 Rehoboth 6-1 4th


12th: F&M-3+, 7.5f-T (Super)

Best Value: #9 Marchesa 15-1 2nd
Most Likely: #10 AMERICAN BORDER 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Tri to Dance 8-1 6th
Super/Other: #8 Demurrer 3-1 WON


<$50 P4 Play:

9: 1-5
10: 1-5-6-8-10
11: 3-5
12: 9-10

2x5x2x2 = $40



CHURCHILL DOWNS


9th: 17th Mrs. Revere (Gr. II), 3yo-F 8.5f-T

Too much value here to accept short tab on the nice Bit of Whimsey (2-1).. Many here have races good enough to beat her at crazy odds.. Superb betting affair featuring Mark Guidry's final stakes ride on Frank Brothers' Bel Air Beauty..

Best Value: #5 Kiss With a Twist 30-1 6th
Most Likely: #6 BEL AIR BEAUTY 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Tensas Yucatan 15-1 10th
Super/Other: #8 Ciao 12-1 2nd

.10 Super Play: Key #6 with #'s 1-2-3-5-7-8 (1x6x5x4 = 120 x .10 = $12.00)


Good luck!
Steve

[golfer]

Originally Posted by Kasept

9th: Heubeck Distaf H., F&M-3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, Super)

Best Value: #5 Cat Can Do 3-1
Most Likely: #2 Annabill 5-2
Exotics Use: #4 Saffronista 6-1
Super/Other: #7 Mecke Daughter 10-1

Steve, can you elaborate on why your'e putting 1ster Mecke Daughter as the super add in the 9th race?

[SentToStud]

In the Dudley at CRC, I think Storm in May is going to roll. It's hard to trust Guapeton/Morales without a prep and he never beat or ran against much. It looks too short for Like Now and he beat nothing in his win a few back.

Storm in May's two dirt wins were both sprinting and his last was pure prep.

Kaplan could have gone a lot of ways with him. He's beaten, led or finished close to a lot of far nicer horses than are in here.

[golfer]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

In the Dudley at CRC, I think Storm in May is going to roll. It's hard to trust Guapeton/Morales without a prep and he never beat or ran against much. It looks too short for Like Now and he beat nothing in his win a few back.

Storm in May's two dirt wins were both sprinting and his last was pure prep.

Kaplan could have gone a lot of ways with him. He's beaten, led or finished close to a lot of far nicer horses than are in here.

I don't really trust Guapeton either (although he has run a couple of very fast races). However, from a Thorograph perspective, Storm in May has never run fast enough to win, although that doesn't preclude it from happening today.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by golfer

Steve, can you elaborate on why your'e putting 1ster Mecke Daughter as the super add in the 9th race?

Classic 'mystery' horse.. No idea what she faced in Puerto Rico, but you don't win 6 in a row by accident and Diaz has come in to ride her.. See what happens to the 10-1. They'll know at Calder if she's the goods or not.

[turf fan]

Tensas Yucatan at a big price in the G2 Mrs. Revere.
Gets first run at Mig's California speed horse.
Cat Charmer fills in the bottom of the exacta.

[dylbert]

Tensas Yucatan may be next Happy Ticket. Louisiana-bred filly with excellent upside potential. She was "lawnmower" on LaD green this summer. First, against statebreds; then, against open company 3YO fillies on Super Derby undercard.

I like her chances with this Grade 2 company. Getting Robby Albarado on-board is plus on CD sod. As Steve suggests, Bel Air Beauty & Kiss With a Twist are my exacta & trifecta combo plays, too.

Superfecta Flyer Express plays:

$.30 SF wheel: 1,5,6 // 1,5,6 // 1,5,6 // ALL

$.20 SF wheel: 1,5,6 // 1,5,6 // ALL // 1,5,6

$27 total expediture for possible signer...

[Kasept]

Year after year, this Florida Millions Day is a free-for-all, and despite trying to anticipate bombs, you STILL get surprised.. Thought I had a $20 winner in Robbie's Gal, only to see her unable to reel in $26 Wise Cookie.

He's Eze ($63) busts out over Wise Answer and Smoke'n Coal a race earlier as well, producing your run of the mill $3,100 P3 payout... P4 is going to be ridiculous...


And here they are:

1) 10,746.40
2) 42,985.60
3) 42,985.60
4) 537.20 (3 of 4)
5) 781.40 (3 of 4)
6) 447.60 (3 of 4)

[SentToStud]

How the hell does Wise Cookie go off at only 12-1? Looked 40-1 to me in there. P-4's and 3's ending in the 7th are huge. $21k and $16k to Like Now for a buck.

[MISTERGEE]

coa