Johan Santana

[SniperSB23]

Santana's peak four years back followed by three years where he wasn't quite as good got me to thinking about the last two pitchers in baseball to have seasons where they were unhittable (Maddux and Pedro). I decided to compare their peak season with the next three seasons and then with the four seasons following. The theory being the performance over those four years would be telling as to what you can expect from Santana the next four years. Here are the numbers:

Greg Maddux
Peak Year (1995) 19-2 181 Ks 1.63 ERA 0.81 WHIP
Avg Next Three 17-8 184 Ks 2.38 ERA 0.99 WHIP
Avg Following Four 18-9 154 Ks 3.07 ERA 1.16 WHIP

Pedro Martinez
Peak Year (2000) 18-6 284 Ks 1.74 ERA 0.74 WHIP
Avg Next Three 14-4 203 Ks 2.27 ERA 0.97 WHIP
Avg Following Four 11-7 151 Ks 3.57 ERA 1.09 WHIP

Johan Santana
Peak Year (2004) 20-6 265 Ks 2.61 ERA 0.92 WHIP
Avg Next Three 17-9 239 Ks 2.99 ERA 1.01 WHIP
Avg Following Four ??????????


Santana's dropoff isn't quite as sharp as Maddux and Pedro but his peak also wasn't as high to drop off of. Realistically though, even on a lesser trend, he could easily be a 3.50 ERA 1.10 WHIP guy for the next four years, certainly the numbers of a very good pitcher. But are they the numbers of a $20 million+ per year pitcher and possibly committing to him for far longer than just four years? The biggest advantage Santana has is he was 25 when he had his peak season. Pedro was 28 and Maddux was 29. Maybe no one else cares but I found the comparison interesting.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Santana's peak four years back followed by three years where he wasn't quite as good got me to thinking about the last two pitchers in baseball to have seasons where they were unhittable (Maddux and Pedro). I decided to compare their peak season with the next three seasons and then with the four seasons following. The theory being the performance over those four years would be telling as to what you can expect from Santana the next four years. Here are the numbers:

Greg Maddux
Peak Year (1995) 19-2 181 Ks 1.63 ERA 0.81 WHIP
Avg Next Three 17-8 184 Ks 2.38 ERA 0.99 WHIP
Avg Following Four 18-9 154 Ks 3.07 ERA 1.16 WHIP

Pedro Martinez
Peak Year (2000) 18-6 284 Ks 1.74 ERA 0.74 WHIP
Avg Next Three 14-4 203 Ks 2.27 ERA 0.97 WHIP
Avg Following Four 11-7 151 Ks 3.57 ERA 1.09 WHIP

Johan Santana
Peak Year (2004) 20-6 265 Ks 2.61 ERA 0.92 WHIP
Avg Next Three 17-9 239 Ks 2.99 ERA 1.01 WHIP
Avg Following Four ??????????


Santana's dropoff isn't quite as sharp as Maddux and Pedro but his peak also wasn't as high to drop off of. Realistically though, even on a lesser trend, he could easily be a 3.50 ERA 1.10 WHIP guy for the next four years, certainly the numbers of a very good pitcher. But are they the numbers of a $20 million+ per year pitcher and possibly committing to him for far longer than just four years? The biggest advantage Santana has is he was 25 when he had his peak season. Pedro was 28 and Maddux was 29. Maybe no one else cares but I found the comparison interesting.

I think on one one hand most people dont realize how good Santana is compiling his numbers in Minnesota as opposed to a guy like Peavy who piches in Death Valley. The number of innings that he has on his arm at a relatively young age would make you worry. He is a true ace but signing pitchers to huge contracts has not been a great move in recent times or I guess ever. Haren, while not as good or consistent may be the better option simply bcause the contract situation is much more settled. But if Santana goes to the Red Sox in the deal proposed for Lester, Crisp, the really good minor league SS and another player it would be a great deal for the Sox. Lester is probably at best a #3, Crisp has little value to the Sox with Ellesbury, and the minor leaguers may or may not pan out. Meanwhile the 1,2 punch of Santana and Beckett would be almost unbeatable in the post season, not even factoring in the other Red Sox young pitchers and a bullpen ending with Papelbon

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I think on one one hand most people dont realize how good Santana is compiling his numbers in Minnesota as opposed to a guy like Peavy who piches in Death Valley. The number of innings that he has on his arm at a relatively young age would make you worry. He is a true ace but signing pitchers to huge contracts has not been a great move in recent times or I guess ever. Haren, while not as good or consistent may be the better option simply bcause the contract situation is much more settled. But if Santana goes to the Red Sox in the deal proposed for Lester, Crisp, the really good minor league SS and another player it would be a great deal for the Sox. Lester is probably at best a #3, Crisp has little value to the Sox with Ellesbury, and the minor leaguers may or may not pan out. Meanwhile the 1,2 punch of Santana and Beckett would be almost unbeatable in the post season, not even factoring in the other Red Sox young pitchers and a bullpen ending with Papelbon

I love that deal for the Red Sox but can't see that happening. Hughes and Cabrera is a much more attractive package (and possibly too much to give up and then have to pay Santana). I think the Mets could put together a more attractive package too that doesn't involve Coco Crisp.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I love that deal for the Red Sox but can't see that happening. Hughes and Cabrera is a much more attractive package (and possibly too much to give up and then have to pay Santana). I think the Mets could put together a more attractive package too that doesn't involve Coco Crisp.

I thought the same thing when I saw the proposal. Of course it could all be a smokescreen too. I think the Yankees are crazy to trade Hughes. IMO he has greater potential and value than Chamberlain. Joba was awesome as a setup guy but will that translate to starting or closing? With the signing of MR the Yankees have made him a starter or set up guy. Is there a set up guy in history 1/10th as valuable as Santana? If chamberlain can carry a similar production over to starting then he will be an all time great. I just cant see him doing what he did for 7 innings every 5 days. If the Yankees were smart they would just sit on their hands, ride out the next year, get some experience for the young guys and go after Santana as a FA or look to get Haren as plan B. But I think they are overestimating the team they have and worried sick that Santana goes to the Red Sox which will make the 100 million they gave to Posada and MR a waste of money. Because he goes to Boston, the Yankees aren't winning the East or Series for 3 years without some sort of major injury. Bostons only weaknesses are depth of the rotation (which is everyones problem) and catcher because Varitek looks like he is slipping fast.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I thought the same thing when I saw the proposal. Of course it could all be a smokescreen too. I think the Yankees are crazy to trade Hughes. IMO he has greater potential and value than Chamberlain. Joba was awesome as a setup guy but will that translate to starting or closing? With the signing of MR the Yankees have made him a starter or set up guy. Is there a set up guy in history 1/10th as valuable as Santana? If chamberlain can carry a similar production over to starting then he will be an all time great. I just cant see him doing what he did for 7 innings every 5 days. If the Yankees were smart they would just sit on their hands, ride out the next year, get some experience for the young guys and go after Santana as a FA or look to get Haren as plan B. But I think they are overestimating the team they have and worried sick that Santana goes to the Red Sox which will make the 100 million they gave to Posada and MR a waste of money. Because he goes to Boston, the Yankees aren't winning the East or Series for 3 years without some sort of major injury. Bostons only weaknesses are depth of the rotation (which is everyones problem) and catcher because Varitek looks like he is slipping fast.

I don't get the Yanks position at all. Hughes not only proved himself as a starter but had a fricking no hitter going when he got injured. I'm totally baffled as to how Joba playing the role of setup man where you face everyone once somehow moved ahead of Hughes who proved he could carry a game into late innings. If Joba and Hughes can both be effective starters next season than the Yanks are insane to be worrying about pitching. But in what I can only hope will be the next desperation move they might just trade away Hughes and keep Joba. That stupidity might make up for my being extremely upset at the Mets earlier today.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I don't get the Yanks position at all. Hughes not only proved himself as a starter but had a fricking no hitter going when he got injured. I'm totally baffled as to how Joba playing the role of setup man where you face everyone once somehow moved ahead of Hughes who proved he could carry a game into late innings. If Joba and Hughes can both be effective starters next season than the Yanks are insane to be worrying about pitching. But in what I can only hope will be the next desperation move they might just trade away Hughes and keep Joba. That stupidity might make up for my being extremely upset at the Mets earlier today.

I think they realize that relying on 3 pitchers under 25 to be able to go 200+ innings is a shaky proposition. especially if Pettite quits.