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#1
12-31-2007, 08:02 AM
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12/31: Santa Anita ($153k C/O)
Caught the chalky P4 at the Big A Sunday ($65/$1) but can only point to bad judgement, ticket stucture and budget choice for missing the pocket change P6 ($2,675). Those that wonder why there is so much consternation over 'supertrainers' like Steve Asmussen need only look at how I was taken in by his Staid in the first leg of the sextet.
On her way to career maiden status, Staid had run well enough two back to make me think she was primed for a big effort for the high profile connections in an attempt to get her diploma before turning 3yo Tuesday. Her running style looked like a plus; her 9-2 morning line looked like a solid value if you believed it was to be her day; and Asmussen is in the midst of a year end push to nab the trainer wins title from Scott Lake. But trying to single her was a foolhardy gambit in a race where there were at least two others in Contessa's Quixotic Lassie and Albertrani's Crane Bay that I believed capable. Firster Chicks Are Better was the Exotics Add, and probably deserved to win the race. A $236.25 trifecta was a reward for the overall race opinion, but Staid ran a non-threatening 5th. The "Asmussen Factor" skews horseplayer judgement and slim-jims your bankroll. Just as Todd Pletcher's runners went crazily overbet during his protracted cold streak between August-October, the ominous presence of Asmussen runners, and/or erratic-performing Contessa 'move ups', amounts to an unwanted added test of mettle and deduction. Leaving my 7th race 3rd choice Quick and Easy off the play was strictly a budgetary decision and doomed the run at a consolation in the "6" as racing came to a close for 2007 in New York. Overall, it was a very good year in the Empire State on the oval, and with the franchise battle looking to come to a satisfying conclusion with a settlement announcement sometime Monday, 2008 should be even better. Santa Anita has a P6 carry on New Year's Eve, and it looks mighty tough with three cheap events comprising the first half the skien. But what the hell... Let's play it anyway! SANTA ANITA Rolling Doubles through R7; .10 Supers in all... 3rd: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m (P6, P3) Best Value: #1 Stormy Tuesday 10-1 7th Most Likely: #8 Zee Topper 7-2 2nd Next Best: #5 Lady Disdain 3-1 WON Exotics Add: #4 Megan's Mia 10-1 5th 4th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f (P3) Best Value: #1 Beltline Jack 6-1 8th Most Likely: #7 Ghost Actor 7-2 2nd Next Best: #8 War Scandal 3-1 7th Exotics Add: #6 The Rye Man 5-1 5th 5th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 6.5f (P4,P3) Best Value: #10 Golden Gorilla 6-1 3rd Most Likely: #2 Distinctive Afleet 5-2 7th Next Best: #6 The Royals Court 7-2 2nd Exotics Add: #4 Mr. Excessive 3-1 5th 6th: CLM, 2yo-F, 6f (P3) Best Value: #1 Princess Traci 5-1 8th Most Likely: #2 Elsie Jo 8-1 4th Next Best: #9 Clever Lady 4-1 3rd Exotics Add: #3 Onefunsonofagun 8-1 2nd 7th: 3rd Impressive Luck H., 3+, 6.5-DHT NOTE: With SCR of T.D. Vance, add #3 Double Action 15-1.. 7th Best Value: #6 Canteen 12-1 6th Most Likely: #1 SCR Next Best: #8 Quietly Mine 5-2 4th Exotics Add: #5 Night Chapter 4-1 3rd 8th: S/ALW, 3+, 7f Best Value: #7 CHEROKEE TEAR 5-1 WON Most Likely: #3 L. A. Phil 7-2 7th Next Best: #5 Stand Tall 6-1 4th Exotics Add: #6 South Coast 5-1 5th High 5 Play: #9 Cactus Lightening 15-1 2nd <$150 P6 Play: 3: 1-8 4: 1-7 5: 2-6-10 6: 1-2-9 7: 3-8 8: 7 2x2x3x3x2x1 = 72 x $2 = $144 <$50 P4 Play: 5: 2-4-6-10 6: 1-2-3 7: 3-8 8: 3-7 4x3x2x2 = $48 Good luck! Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 01-01-2008 at 07:06 AM. 
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#2
12-31-2007, 01:18 PM
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I just looked at SA for the hell of it and it friggin impossible today. In the last, I like #5 Stand Tall and #6 South Coast.
I think it HAS to pay today also because of the end of year books and such. Not 100% on this. Furthermore, if I had tons of money to piss away and was looking for end of year action, I would be playing the below.  3: 3,4,5,8,9 4: 8 5: 2,6,10 6: 2,3,8,9 7: 8 8: 3,5,6 And MORESO...I like the below sequence to pay about $125 to $150 per $1 6: 2,3,8,9 7: 8 8: 3,5,6 Last edited by Scav : 12-31-2007 at 01:37 PM.
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#3
12-31-2007, 01:50 PM
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Sequence changes..
Race 7:Scratch #1 T.D. Vance; #6 +2 Overweight
Race 8:Scratch #10 Cherokee Law
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#4
12-31-2007, 02:41 PM
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6TH)ALL
7th)NIGHT CHAPTER 8TH)CHEROKEE TEAR 6TH)ONEFUNSONOFAGUN 7TH)NIGHT CHAPTER 8TH)ALL 6TH)ONEFUNSONOFGUN 7TH)ALL 8TH)L.A.PHIL,S TALL,S COAST,C TEAR,S COMIC,C LIGHTING
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#5
12-31-2007, 02:59 PM
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Quote:
Thanks ScubsBro...gonna give them a go at the Reservation!!
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We've Gone Delirious
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#6
12-31-2007, 03:15 PM
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my 8 buck toss
8 2/7 7/10 3 5 3 id rather be lucky than good..........and this card has too many maybees......... good luck
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#7
12-31-2007, 03:30 PM
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Quote:
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#9
12-31-2007, 04:03 PM
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Love the fact that Steve has Cherokee Tear in capitals. Been waiting to playback Baffert's charge. I'm hoping that the extra 1/2 furlong means the difference. Will be singling him in the pick 3/4 and some heavy backing in the WP column. Trifector key as well.
rACE 5 2,4,5,10 // 5,8,9 // 2,4,5,8 // 7 Race 6 1,5,8,9 // 4,5,8 // 7 Heavy pick 3 5,8 // 5,8 // 7 Race 8 WP 7 Tri wheel 7 with 3,6,8,9 Best of luck to those playing on the final day of the year!!
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"A person who saw no important difference between the fire outside a Neandrathal's cave and a working thermo-nuclear reactor might tell you that junk bonds and derivatives BOTH serve to energize capital" - Nathan Israel Last edited by declansharbor : 12-31-2007 at 04:36 PM.
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#10
12-31-2007, 04:09 PM
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Quote:
games f*cking hard enough...I sure don't need my horse standing in gate mixing Kool-Aid while the others take off running.
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#12
12-31-2007, 04:51 PM
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I wish TD Vance hadn't been scratched, as the odds will now be lower on my choice, Unusual Suspect, who I thought should have been the ml fave to begin with, couldn't understand the ml odds of 6-1
In the finale, which seems to have loads of possibles, I side with the #2, Why Knot Us
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#13
12-31-2007, 05:03 PM
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why is megan's mia the favorite????
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#15
12-31-2007, 06:22 PM
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My guess is there's going to be a carry-over to Thursday. Two huge longshots in the 4th ($27.20) then the monster in the 5th ($73.40).. Been a very tough card to say the least. So far I am 0-5
 for the day.
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#16
12-31-2007, 06:31 PM
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I USED 3,5,7 IN doubles to ONEFUNSONOFAGUN.So,ain't using her in late p3.Gunna take all but her in the 6th race,and single Night Chapter,and then use
L.A.PHIL,S TALL,S COAST,C TEAR,S COMIC,C LIGHTING in final leg. 6th)1,2,4,5,6,7,8,9 7th)5 8th)3,5,6,7,8,9
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#18
12-31-2007, 06:46 PM
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Almost,man she gave me everything.Got $4 exacta tijuana on top of her,but that was almost $600 double.
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#19
12-31-2007, 07:01 PM
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Now,see Night CHAPTER IS COVERED IN late pick 3.So take everybody else(except chalky 8 horse) in 7th race to Cherokee in doubles.
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