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#1
01-07-2008, 09:41 PM
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Tampa Pick 4 - 1/8/08
Very difficult sequence, let's see if we can get a price or two....
Race 7: OC 62k/NC 1 1/16th Turf 7 - Dubai Gold Dini is on fire, Velez owns the Tampa grass this year. Going for three in a row. 8 - Minnamana Working extremely well for comeback. 5 wins in 7 starts at this distance/surface. 5 - Load a Chronic Catalano a perfect 3 for 3 this meet. Nice 5f spin after a month off. 6 - Shoal Water Frostad rarely runs at Tampa. Begs the question, why is he here and not at GP? 8 yr old has lost his way to the winners circle while running against much tougher. Race 8: OC 32k/N2X 6.5f Dirt 3 - Bikini Atoll Horse for course, never out of the exacta. Last was a nice tightener. 8 - Native Dress Tired in first spin over the Tampa sand. Three good works since...ready. 7 - Miltos Express Not sure what this one's best game is. Last two wins are a last to first 5f AP poly run and a wire to wire mile and 70 Stickney jaunt. May be able to stalk the top two if they battle (the 4 may join that battle). Race 9: Clm 16000 1 Mile Turf 7 - Never Absent A series of slow 5f works for this confirmed dirt hater. Will wake up when he hits the green. 8 - Bye Bye Beylen Loves this turf course. Okay combacker on Dec. 21 washoff. 3 - Seize Hard to leave Slomkowski/Calabrese off the ticket, but this one did not pick up his feet in the Dec 21 race they all seem to be coming out of. 1st off claim....Calabrese magic?? 11 - Onotheregostokyo Deserves serious consideration if he draws in. Race 10: MCL 25000 6.5f Dirt 4 - Secret Enquiry Slowly coming around. 3rd off layoff. 7 - Princess Mandate From the same connections that pulled off a shocker with first time starter, I'llthinkofsumthin (39-1) on December 29. This one appears to have been working slightly slower in company with I'llthinkofsumthin. Gets an extra half furlong. Can Garner and Tammi catch lightning in a bottle again? 11 - J Henry By the obscure son of Affirmed, Prefer. Housebuster on the bottom and a couple of lively works say she should show some speed from the outside. Lures Centeno for her first try. Small ticket: 5,6,7,8/3,7/7,8/4,7,11 = $48 Big ticket: 3,6,7,8/3,7,8/3,7,8/2,3,4,7,11 = $180 GL to all. 
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#2
01-07-2008, 10:00 PM
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Bigs,
I am very skeptical of Dubai Gold in the 7th. I completely agree that Dini and Velez have been a solid team but this guy got an absolutely perfect trip in that 12/21 race. The second place finisher, Fire Striker, was beaten handily in a N2X on Saturday and now Dubai Gold is coming in with no works after working like a maniac prior to the 12/21 event. I'm glad you're helping him. One that I'm going throw into the mix is #2 ALL I CAN GET who seemed to get kind of a 'boat' setup last time. Bennett is HUGE 2OTL and they may have been thinking turf route with this one when they put him in the dirt sprint. Speed hasn't been spectacular on the Tampa sod but this guy may be able to get clear after dispatching the hopeless Timber Time. Like you said, very tough sequence and someone's going to get paid. I noticed the Garner Vinson firster in the nightcap and remembered the bomb on 12/29 that earned him that gaudy ROI. In a group this soft I'd feel dumb if he won at a nice price and blew up my ticket. I'm definitely going to use #3DIXIE QUEEN who tired after making a pretty solid pace on a track that seriously favored late runners (0 horses wired, 0 were 1st or 2nd at the pace call and only four winners from eight dirt races were in the 1st half of the field at the pace call). Good luck tomorrow! NT
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#3
01-07-2008, 10:54 PM
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Quote:
Bennett is great with 2nd off, BUT not with turfers. Look at his Dirt/Turf and Turf percentages and that 2nd off number doesn't look so great. Three awkward starts in his last five races for a horse that stays close to the pace and I'm not sold. As far as Dubai Gold, that was a strangely run race. He isn't normally that far back, I look for him to be much closer to the pace tomorrow. I'm not terribly concerned over the lack of works since his last (a little birdie told me he is doing very well since his last race). He's quite a versitile horse that likes to win. It's a wide open race and I will be interested to see where the money lands. GL
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#4
01-08-2008, 02:38 AM
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Bigs and NT
Is there reason to look at one more in the 7th who 1) May be at least with the best late speed in the race 2) Has Turf #'s certainly competitive with these 3) Has trainer with 23% (N=26) Tampa win % ,and is 1-1 this meet with ROI 3.67 off layoffs > 90 days, has won 3 of 4 at this distance (4 3-1-0-0) Storm Cat Sire out of Dam who was 13 for 23 and 9 for 16 on Turf...... #1 British Blue can run with these and may pay a nice little price Race 7 1,5,6ES,7,8....in the 7th for P4....hoping for 1 scratch so I am not 5 deep in the first leg. Race 8 3,4,7,8 The only reason I added the 4 Heaven's Flame was the 2 nice works with the previous 3rd in only trip at Tampa. If a little better could win Race 9 3,4,6,7 The key to the race will be the "AE"'s. If the 11 or the 13 draw in they get played by me.. The 4 Greylock has TGH juice with a 50% chance to run better than a "7" which should win this with a decent turf jock for Tampa and a great closing effort last race. If the AE's are left out I like the 7 year olds chances. Race 10 1,2,4,7,9,11 The race is impossible but as stated above this one is gonna pay so an investment may be prudent. Scratches will hopefully bring the costy down but 3 or 4 hundred for a decent play is a decent investment.] Good Luck to all the Tuesday Faithful ....Hopefully the rest of the regulars at Tampa will critique some of my stuff above... Last edited by docicu3 : 01-08-2008 at 03:44 AM.
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#5
01-08-2008, 05:56 AM
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Quote:
British Blue deserves a long look. As with the case in these horozontal plays, you have to draw a line somewhere. IF I could single one later in the card, this one would be included I just think Heaven's Flame in the 8th is a cut below the others in the race. You will get a nice price. My only caution with Greylock in the 9th is that there have been so few mile races on the dirt at Tampa (they just started carding them last year) and the figs for those races seem a little out of whack sometimes. That said, when I go through these races, I eliminate the horses I think have no shot and he is the only one I didn't eliminate (but didn't use). You have the 10th covered.... Good luck fashioning your ticket today. As I stated in an earlier post, the fact that all 4 races seem wide open, should get us a very nice P4 payout.
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#6
01-08-2008, 06:20 AM
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Bigs
The thing is that you probably only need one of those first 3 races to work out with the three I put up for discussion and you probably get the pay off to go up 2K per dollar played, 2 win it goes up 4 K etc...Besides Bris and TGH I supplement my evaluation of these sequences with a stat program that separates horses by 1) Workouts and Rest between Races 2) EarlySpeed 3) Late Speed or last 1/4 4) Late Late Speed or last furlong. If a horse is named by the program as having the best chance to win today it means the horse is likely > 5-1 and has a better than 20% chance to win the race. British Blue, Heaven's Flame and Greylock qualified today....sometimes it works out for a price and sometimes I think a horse is going off 10-1 and goes off 8-5. We'll see how it comes out today...
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#7
01-08-2008, 11:33 AM
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Waiting for the late changes - I like 3 of the 4 AE's in race 9 and relatively unimpreseed by the rest of the field....think we could get a bomb if they draw in
EDIT: all the AE's are scratched  Last edited by Rudeboyelvis : 01-08-2008 at 11:43 AM.
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#8
01-08-2008, 11:54 AM
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R7)
3 Starlight Serenade 8 Minnamana 6 Shoal water 5 Loada chronic 1 Brittish Blue 7 Dubai Gold R8) 3 Bikini Atoll 7 Miltos Express 4 Heaven's Flame 8 Native Dress R9) 7 Never Absent 8 Bye Bye Beylen 3 seize R10) 1 Fly to Tampa 7 Princess Mandate 4 Secret Inquiry 11 J. Henry P4 BIG - 1,3,5,6,7,8//3,4,7,8//7,8//1,4,7,11 192.00 SMALL - 1,3,5,6,8//3,4,7,8//7//1,4,7 60.00 Last edited by Rudeboyelvis : 01-08-2008 at 04:10 PM.
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#9
01-08-2008, 01:28 PM
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Tam 3
$7 win on 10 $6 win on 5,3
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#10
01-08-2008, 01:52 PM
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Spyder's Birthday Selection Race 4- #10
Tampa
#10- Mr. Rachin - love the breading and form hides the fact thhis horse should be able to run well at this distance. WP! Spyder
__________________
Don't sweat the petty things and don't pet the sweaty things.
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#11
01-08-2008, 01:53 PM
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Tam 4
$4 win on 5,6,7,10 $3 win on 2 exbx 123567910 =$56
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#12
01-08-2008, 02:06 PM
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Nice Picks but I just don't see how you can cap that way. Not saying anything against it mind you cause you're cashing.
Nice job & I suck, Spyder
__________________
Don't sweat the petty things and don't pet the sweaty things.
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#13
01-08-2008, 02:18 PM
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Quote:
Trying some unorthodox approaches with the dutching, who knows maybe figure something out. I may only actually bet one race or one pick 3 or 4 a week(and it wasn't this one), so on here I am just trying to get a feel for the pools and hopefully show a profit. I've been stinking lately.
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#14
01-08-2008, 02:57 PM
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Looking for some slight action today as my account will get replenished tomorrow. I have a few on my radar for the next few days at Gulfstream, with a nice size play on Big Jerome if he goes.
British Blue in the 7th Heaven's Flame and Sage's Dream in the 8th Kalita and Petesamassbred in the 9th Princess Mandat and J henry in the nightcap All being miniscule WP bets. Best of luck to those playing today
__________________
"A person who saw no important difference between the fire outside a Neandrathal's cave and a working thermo-nuclear reactor might tell you that junk bonds and derivatives BOTH serve to energize capital" - Nathan Israel
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#15
01-08-2008, 03:34 PM
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Quote:
http://home.racingdispatch.com/2008/...sday_jan_8.php Good luck! NT
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#17
01-08-2008, 07:17 PM
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Quote:
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#18
01-09-2008, 12:44 AM
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1,2,4,7,9,11 The race is impossible but as stated above this one is gonna pay so an investment may be prudent. Scratches will hopefully bring the costy down but 3 or 4 hundred for a decent play is a decent investment.]
Having salvaged only a few dollar tri in the 8th after watching an overbet 1 in the 7th get home I was crushed by the illogical but lucrative 10 in the 9th... A wheel on top in the 10th,something I've written about before, after having 2 or 3 legs of P3 and P4 sequences in hand would have saved the day. As discussed previously I don't have to be the smartest capper' I just need to leave with the money.... I didn't do it this time and payed the price as a simple $1 all/1,4,7,9,11/1,4,7,9,11 would have netted 2 K and 5 K for the super for a buck wheel. Like a moron I got away from it...anyway there will be other days at this place...spooky at times like the Twilight Zone but has it's virtues!! Thanks NT and Bigs for the kind words..
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#19
01-09-2008, 02:33 PM
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Thank you Doc.
After you pointed those three horses out, I gave each a long look and actually added British Blue in the 7th. Alas, it didn't matter because I was nowhere near the 9th or 10th, but I appreciate the input and always like to give credit if someone helped me out. I probably spent more time on this sequence than any all season because I thought it was so wide open, it was frustrating to see illogical horses win and blow it up.
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#20
01-09-2008, 02:53 PM
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Linear Mode
