Suwannee River Handicap

JJP · #1 02-03-2008, 10:11 AM

Looks like an excellent betting race; a number of solid filly/mare turfers and a big field.

Here's a few random thoughts:

Basically no speed in here. I'm still trying to figure out who's going to get the lead. My Rachel has been prompting the pace in her last two but those were two slow paced 12 furlong races. Aunt Henny shouldn't be too far back.

If you're Johnny V, wouldn't you have a choice between the two Pletchers? Apparently Angel likes My Rachel more than J'Ray. But with the likely pace scenario, maybe he's on to something.

Those who strictly look at stakes grading will occasionally get thrown off, especially when the graded stakes committee drops the ball. If you look at the designations for some of Aunt Henny's races, you see the Grade 3 Honey Fox (against Wait a While and Precious Kitten) the ungraded Magna Distaff (against Vacare) and the Grade 3 Galorette against Precious Kitten. Clearly those were stronger than Grade 3 level. I don't know if she'll win but she looks like the value in here.

CSC · #2 02-03-2008, 10:33 AM

I like Dance Away Capote in this one, her best would put her right there. She looks the best odds wise of the contenders.

blackthroatedwind · #3 02-03-2008, 10:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

I like Dance Away Capote in this one, her best would put her right there. She looks the best odds wise of the contenders.

She's probably the best horse, but the original post about the lack of pace may work against her, especially considering her rider's constant impatience and bad habit of making wide premature moves on the turn. She is not a grinder.

I'm more inclined to lean to the best horse that will be at least reasonably close to the pace.....and that's Bel Air Beauty.

Travis Stone · #4 02-03-2008, 11:06 AM

There's not a lot of pace in this spot. Dance Away Capote's best race was with her closing in a race where they went 22 4/5 to the quarter 46 to the half. Waquoit's Love is interesting as a potential pace maker who gets brave. I like Bel Air Beauty though as I think she ends-up being the best gal out of this group.