Beyer Help, Please

[NoLuvForPletch]

Hang with me here and pardon my lack of knowledge when it comes to speed figures as my Father and Grandfather taught me to handicap 30 years ago (and I'm still no good) when the FORM was printed in a way that resembled the NEW YORK TIMES and there weren't any speed figures in the FORM back then other than the time figure listed with the track variant. Now I use them more as a reference to assist is my handicapping.

Anyhow, my question is in reference to back to back races on Jan 27th at Aqueduct, the 3rd and 4th and they are both 6f races.

Anyhow, the winner of the 3rd race, Tater Tutt, was given a 94 Beyer figure and the winner of the 4th race, Sweet Madness, was given a 59 Beyer figure.

The fractions run by Tater Tutt were: 22 3/5, 46, 58, 110 2/5
Tater Tutt went wire to wire, unchallenged.

The fractions run by Sweet Madness were: 23 4/5, 48, 100, 113
Sweet Madness sat a few lengths off the pacesetters, swung wide on the turn, and went by fairly easily in the stretch, while being very green.

Now, I thought that it was 2 pts for each 1/5 of a second in sprints on the Beyer scale? Which, if Tater Tutt's figure is correct, shouldn't Sweet Madness's figure be a 68? Is it the pace of the race that would cause the figures to be that far off?

The reason I am asking is that the second place finisher, Half A Note is entered today and his 92 Beyer figure is much the "current best" in the field and is better than anyone in the field has EVER run. Problem is I really do not like him at all and I am putting together a Pick 6 ticket and want to leave him out but find it hard to do so if the 92 is a correct number.

His fractions were: 24 4/5, 46 3/5, 58 1/5, 110 3/5.
Obviously he came from well back in a short field and passed the ones unsuccessfully chasing the speed.

So, should I believe that he and Tater Tutt ran a 92 and 94 respectively in a 4YO and Up O C 75k/NW1X (Tater Tutt has won 5 races and I think was in for a tag and Half a Note was still eligible for the condition) and Sweet Madness won a NYS Bred 3YO filly race, beating many horses previously Beyering in the 60's + with a 59, or working off of that 59 that was given to Sweet Madness should the figures for Tater Tutt and Half A Note be closer to the mid to low 80's?

Thanks in advance.
NLFP

[mes5107]

The assumption that 1/5 of a second equals two points on the Beyer Chart is incorrect (it's actually a little more than 2 1/2 points per 1/5 second). Using a standard Beyer chart for 6.0 f, a time of 1:10 2/5 gives a raw figure of 100. A time of 1:13 yields a raw figure of 64. The variant looks to be -6 for the day, which would award a 94 to Tater Tutt and a 58 to Sweet Madness. The extra point given to SM could be explained by either a more accurate Beyer chart designed specifically for the Aqu Inner, or perhaps the figure writer made a judgement call.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by mes5107

The assumption that 1/5 of a second equals two points on the Beyer Chart is incorrect (it's actually a little more than 2 1/2 points per 1/5 second). Using a standard Beyer chart for 6.0 f, a time of 1:10 2/5 gives a raw figure of 100. A time of 1:13 yields a raw figure of 64. The variant looks to be -6 for the day, which would award a 94 to Tater Tutt and a 58 to Sweet Madness. The extra point given to SM could be explained by either a more accurate Beyer chart designed specifically for the Aqu Inner, or perhaps the figure writer made a judgement call.

Okay, a few things. First, now I feel really dumb. Second, where do you get these "raw figures"? Third, how do you get the variant at a -6 for the day? Fourth, Thanks in advance.

[mes5107]

1. Not at all, it's a little complicated.
2. Normally, I would get them from Picking Winners by Andrew Beyer, but I'm at work, so I got them off somebody's personal website. The raw figures chart is a chart that Beyer has developed to assign a value to a certain time, before the speed of the track (variant) is factored in.
3. When you compare the raw figure of 100 to the actual figure of 94, there is a -6 point difference. What a figure maker will do is project what he/she thinks a horse will receive in a given race. If a horse consistently runs in the 85-87 range, and runs a normal race (decent trip, etc) then that horse most likely ran in the 85-87 range. If the raw figure came in at 98, then the race most likely had a a variant of -12. You do this for all of the races to figure out the days average variant.
4. Your welcome, I recommend reading Picking Winners, as that can explain it a lot better than I can.

[NoLuvForPletch]

In my neverending quest to understand The Beyer figure, I have a new question.

A filly runs on May 2nd, a 6f turf sprint, and earns a 78 BSF. I bought the figure on DRF a day or 2 after the race. This filly runs back on May 22, and the 78 BSF is in her PP's in the DRF. The race sets up horribly for her and she is given no chance in the race by the jock's poor tactics, and is subsequently given a much lower figure, and deservedly so. She is entered again on June 19, but in her PP's for the May 2 race is an 80 BSF.

Can anyone explain this to me? Isn't that like a 4-5 length difference?

[Thunder Gulch]

Beyer "improved" his figure making in the years after Picking Winners. In that book his methodology was based strictly on the times and variants. He moved to a "projection" method later which introduced an element of subjectivity to his numbers. Now the Beyer associate responsible for each track includes an assessment for how fast they think the race should have been run into their final assignment of the variant and figures. Not as cut and dried as it once was, but probably a bit more accurate. I would still highly recommend reading Picking Winners to understand the nuts and bolts of how it all got started.

As for the value of a length in points. It varies by distance. A length at 6f is obviously a greater percentage of the overall distance run than a length at 10f. Also consider that it takes longer to run each subsequent furlong as the races get longer.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Beyer "improved" his figure making in the years after Picking Winners. In that book his methodology was based strictly on the times and variants. He moved to a "projection" method later which introduced an element of subjectivity to his numbers. Now the Beyer associate responsible for each track includes an assessment for how fast they think the race should have been run into their final assignment of the variant and figures. Not as cut and dried as it once was, but probably a bit more accurate. I would still highly recommend reading Picking Winners to understand the nuts and bolts of how it all got started.

As for the value of a length in points. It varies by distance. A length at 6f is obviously a greater percentage of the overall distance run than a length at 10f. Also consider that it takes longer to run each subsequent furlong as the races get longer.

Thanks, but what would've caused an adjustment anywhere from 4 - 6 weeks later?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

Thanks, but what would've caused an adjustment anywhere from 4 - 6 weeks later?

Numbers are very often under review, as there are a variety of reasons that even one person thinks a number might not be the best representative of the performance. Subsequent efforts by horses, not necessarily exclusive to the race in question, might help bring that number more into focus thus necessitating a change.

As I've said here before, Beyer once said to me " we never change a number to make it less accurate. "

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Numbers are very often under review, as there are a variety of reasons that even one person thinks a number might not be the best representative of the performance. Subsequent efforts by horses, not necessarily exclusive to the race in question, might help bring that number more into focus thus necessitating a change.

As I've said here before, Beyer once said to me " we never change a number to make it less accurate. "

I thought that was one thing that might have something to do with it, but I'm just surprised to see it done. It's not like it was a high profile race/horse. It was a F & M NW1X NYSB 6f turf race, so I was just surprised when I looked at the PP's last night and saw the 80 in place of the 78.

[blackthroatedwind]

I bring up figs that I disagree with fairly often with Beyer, and these are usually random races, and quite often he has the figure marked as under review.