Santa Anita President's Day Carry Thread

docicu3 · #1 02-17-2008, 10:01 PM

Okay with the holiday perhaps we can put the time to good use with our own efforts on this one......Let's get the banter started!!

Race 5 Turf Mile 62.5 Alw NW2 (ladies first)

#5 Siamese Cat Rock of Gibraltar turf monster (Hooves special)

Is this a single or do you have to throw in #11 Silver Moonshine whom Carla Gaines has firing fairly well.

Other thoughts in the 5th??

tiggerv · #2 02-17-2008, 10:41 PM

Still looking at the race. The 5 is a definite include but I am not all that interested in Carla's horse. Lots of other speed here and her last race she cut pretty modest fractions to wire them. I don't think she gets away with that and may not be able to get over and will be wide the first turn. In fact the 10 is the speed of the speed if Bejarano sends her.

Probably will include the 10 and maybe the 4 Gula Gold who should be running late if there is a pace melt down. Hollendorfer at 15-1 is always tempting. I will wait to see the jockey on the 4 tomorrow. The horse is much more interesting to me if Rosario is on board then if a Marin Garcia or TVG Puglisi has to pick up the mount. Still not sure what to do with the 1 horse. The 3 is also in the mix but I am not planning on playing a 4k ticket so I will see how deep I end up going after looking at all the races.

docicu3 · #3 02-17-2008, 11:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tiggerv

Still looking at the race. The 5 is a definite include but I am not all that interested in Carla's horse. Lots of other speed here and her last race she cut pretty modest fractions to wire them. I don't think she gets away with that and may not be able to get over and will be wide the first turn. In fact the 10 is the speed of the speed if Bejarano sends her.

Probably will include the 10 and maybe the 4 Gula Gold who should be running late if there is a pace melt down. Hollendorfer at 15-1 is always tempting. I will wait to see the jockey on the 4 tomorrow. The horse is much more interesting to me if Rosario is on board then if a Marin Garcia or TVG Puglisi has to pick up the mount. Still not sure what to do with the 1 horse. The 3 is also in the mix but I am not planning on playing a 4k ticket so I will see how deep I end up going after looking at all the races.

I think it is pretty hard to eliminate Gaines horse with that kind of early turn of foot when it has been successful previously the last 2 times out..

NTamm1215 · #4 02-17-2008, 11:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by docicu3

I think it is pretty hard to eliminate Gaines horse with that kind of early turn of foot when it has been successful previously the last 2 times out..

While Silver Moonshine is in form right now, she's gotten away with murder in both of her recent wire to wire wins. I'll be amazed if she gets clear so easily in here and is able to set such a slow half-mile. There is speed inside of her and this is an awfully deep N2X.

The favorite is logical, Gula is a very live longshot IMO and the rail horse should be able to come back full of fire.

NT

tiggerv · #5 02-17-2008, 11:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by docicu3

I think it is pretty hard to eliminate Gaines horse with that kind of early turn of foot when it has been successful previously the last 2 times out..

I would be shocked if you see 48 3/5 and 112 4/5 tomorrow in a 2nd level optional claiming race at only a mile. The 11 could win but will have to go much faster to wire this field.

Scav · #6 02-17-2008, 11:30 PM

Different race, is Canani on suspension? Why is Kris' Sis in Baltas' care?

tiggerv · #7 02-17-2008, 11:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

Different race, is Canani on suspension? Why is Kris' Sis in Baltas' care?

Not on suspension but I have no idea why that horse is out of his barn.

Scav · #8 02-17-2008, 11:40 PM

I think Silver Moonshine is a major play against. She really moved up last time (4pts) and while she has had time off, my guess it is regress time

SCUDSBROTHER · #9 02-17-2008, 11:46 PM

race 5)1,3,4,5,10...Might toss the 3,but the other 4 are pretty close.You see all these 2nd place finishes for Siamese Cat? To me that last race was more like a grind it out win than an explosion.I guess everybody thinks Gomez is gunna make her run like 5 lengths better,but I could see her running a 2nd.

Scav · #10 02-17-2008, 11:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

race 5)1,3,4,5,10...Might toss the 3,but the other 4 are pretty close.You see all these 2nd place finishes for Siamese Cat? To me that last race was more like a grind it out win than an explosion.I guess everybody thinks Gomez is gunna make her run like 5 lengths better,but I could see her running a 2nd.

4???

tiggerv · #11 02-18-2008, 12:03 AM

Someone help me out on the feature race. I think Black Mamba is a standout but I am not sure I am looking at it objectively because I mistakenly keep betting this horse against the Citronades and Nashoba's Keys of the world and keep getting burned. I don't like Trick's Pic at all and don't think the G3 she won was all that strong. The barn change and layoff of Kris' Sis has me thinking of passing on her. The only other one I even kind of like is Costume.

Scav · #12 02-18-2008, 12:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tiggerv

Someone help me out on the feature race. I think Black Mamba is a standout but I am not sure I am looking at it objectively because I mistakenly keep betting this horse against the Citronades and Nashoba's Keys of the world and keep getting burned. I don't like Trick's Pic at all and don't think the G3 she won was all that strong. The barn change and layoff of Kris' Sis has me thinking of passing on her. The only other one I even kind of like is Costume.

My take, I don't like Costume at all, she also 'bore in' last time, which according to some, is a sign of unhealthyness. I agree with you about Black Mamba

I think on tickets under 1k, she is a great single, but if you are going into this with droppin 5k in mind, you can use other horses, such as Alexandra Rose, Kris' Sis and maybe a little Live Life

Scav · #13 02-18-2008, 12:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tiggerv

Someone help me out on the feature race. I think Black Mamba is a standout but I am not sure I am looking at it objectively because I mistakenly keep betting this horse against the Citronades and Nashoba's Keys of the world and keep getting burned. I don't like Trick's Pic at all and don't think the G3 she won was all that strong. The barn change and layoff of Kris' Sis has me thinking of passing on her. The only other one I even kind of like is Costume.

You notice how Scuds scurried away because I asked him to explain his insaneness with #4 Gula Gold? He must have been smokin his Rosario peace pipe

tiggerv · #14 02-18-2008, 12:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

You notice how Scuds scurried away because I asked him to explain his insaneness with #4 Gula Gold? He must have been smokin his Rosario peace pipe

LOL. I like Gula Gold too. He will be on my ticket if Rosario keeps the mount.

Scav · #15 02-18-2008, 12:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tiggerv

LOL. I like Gula Gold too. He will be on my ticket if Rosario keeps the mount.

The 10 in that race might get a great trip in that race.

Lets hear your take on the 7th race, the maiden claimer....

docicu3 · #16 02-18-2008, 12:21 AM

I have always tended to overthink these as this bottom claimer race brings together the "logical" #1 NORWAY HOUSE" and the trainer angles like #5 THE RYE MAN where Periban's ROI's on claimer's is $3.29 and synthetic is $2.69 which makes Gerry Olguin a little easier to take.

The last two I am gonna throw in here is the late closer #3 Manhattan Express which if this mess is taken by a late runner might fit the bill and #7 Si Chimi whom Talamo rode competitively not too far back.

Hoping for a scratch as I don't really want to burn up 4 choices here!!

Scav · #17 02-18-2008, 12:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by docicu3

I have always tended to overthink these as this bottom claimer race brings together the "logical" #1 NORWAY HOUSE" and the trainer angles like #5 THE RYE MAN where Periban's ROI's on claimer's is $3.29 and synthetic is $2.69 which makes Gerry Olguin a little easier to take.

The last two I am gonna throw in here is the late closer #3 Manhattan Express which if this mess is taken by a late runner might fit the bill and #7 Si Chimi whom Talamo rode competitively not too far back.

Hoping for a scratch as I don't really want to burn up 4 choices here!!

Doc, don't over think that race, it is as easy as 1 and 5, i wouldn't be surprised to see three of these horses not finish the race

tiggerv · #18 02-18-2008, 12:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

The 10 in that race might get a great trip in that race.

Lets hear your take on the 7th race, the maiden claimer....

I like the 10 in the 5th too.

The 7th is horrible but now that I am looking at the 9th, I am having more trouble with it. In the 7th I am looking at the 3,10,11 & 12 but there are 3 or 4 more that I can't rule out but can't afford.

tiggerv · #19 02-18-2008, 12:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

Doc, don't over think that race, it is as easy as 1 and 5, i wouldn't be surprised to see three of these horses not finish the race

I have the 1 as a main, the 5 will either be a main or backup and the 7 is a backup.

Scav · #20 02-18-2008, 12:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tiggerv

I like the 10 in the 5th too.

The 7th is horrible but now that I am looking at the 9th, I am having more trouble with it. In the 7th I am looking at the 3,10,11 & 12 but there are 3 or 4 more that I can't rule out but can't afford.

9th is a dousy..The 12 is a HUGE play on the thorographs....