Stupid BSF question

[herkhorse]

Why does Sierra Sunset get a 99 for his win in the Rebel, while Eight Belles only gets a 91 for her win in the Honneybee the next day? The times were identical 1:43 4/5

[miraja2]

BSFs consist of two elements:
1) A speed rating, which translates the time of every race into a number.
2) A track variant, which measures the swiftness of the racing surface on a given day.

You combine the two to get the BSF. So if a horse runs a race with a speed rating of 90, on a track with a variant of -10, that horse would receive an 80.

The track variant often changes from one day to the next.

[cmorioles]

Easy...different day.

[herkhorse]

Originally Posted by miraja2

BSFs consist of two elements:
1) A speed rating, which translates the time of every race into a number.
2) A track variant, which measures the swiftness of the racing surface on a given day.

You combine the two to get the BSF. So if a horse runs a race with a speed rating of 90, on a track with a variant of -10, that horse would receive an 80.

The track variant often changes from one day to the next.

I understand what a track variant is, just not sure how it is figured on a day to day basis.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

I understand what a track variant is, just not sure how it is figured on a day to day basis.

There is a par time set for races. The variant is figured each day by figuring how each race runs in relation to the par time for the class and distance of the races. I think.

Where I think that the system has a problem is that it can't account for the presence of a good horse to "mess up" the race. Say for instance, the track runs a 6f maiden race and the par time is 1:11 but you get some horse that's a future grade one sprinter in there and he wins in 1:09 2/5. Well wouldn't that mess up the variant for the day because it will make it seem like the track is playing fast when actually, it was just a fast horse? I'm thinking about a horse like Fabulous Strike. Obviously, he's a very good horse. Horses of his caliber don't come around Mountaineer on a regular basis so the par times for the races he was running there are going to be slower than what he's capable of running. So then when he comes out and fires one of his normal races and they are compared to what's normal at Mountaineer, is that how he ends up with the huge numbers?

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

There is a par time set for races. The variant is figured each day by figuring how each race runs in relation to the par time for the class and distance of the races. I think.

Well, that is how you start out, but once you get going you have the history of all the horses in each race, so you don't use pars any more. Beyer is long past that stage. For races with little info, you just don't use it in variant calculation.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

Why does Sierra Sunset get a 99 for his win in the Rebel, while Eight Belles only gets a 91 for her win in the Honneybee the next day? The times were identical 1:43 4/5

Check out the charts for all of the races on both days and you will see that the times were faster on average for Sunday's card. The class level was slightly higher for Sunday but there were a few comparable maiden and claiming races.

The beyer #'s save me time from having to tediously fetter through the charts but it's a good practice to check them when #'s appear to be extremely high or low.

One race of note is the last race Sunday where the second place finisher was 8 lengths clear of the field and the time for 6 furlongs was faster than any of the others for both days. The 9th race Saturday had a similar level of competition and was run 1 1/5 seconds slower.

[the_fat_man]

This is why it's beneficial to have some, at least, GENERAL, concept of what racing is about before actually pursuing the game. And this doesn't apply to horseplayers but to jockeys, as well.

Say you're a cyclist and you're accustomed to riding 40 miles a day over a particular course. After a while you'll realize that, while you've reached a certain level of performance, your overall time will almost NEVER be identical. And you'll know, from riding the course why it is, what factors come into play, that keep you time from being constant from day to day.

So, to draw an additioinal analogy, you can play cash games and develop intuitions about poker or you can just enter tournaments and do the ALL IN thing.

While I'm certainly not a friend of figures, I can easy intellectualize their use in the game. However, using them as starting points for novices, those new to the game, is absolutely the wrong thing to do.

[cmorioles]

I'm not sure I'd say the single most predictive factor in the game is a bad starting point. Since many, many people are betting based on figures, it is wise to understand how they are made. Once you do this, you can figure out the flaws and look for ways to exploit them.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Since many, many people are betting based on figures, it is wise to understand how they are made. Once you do this, you can figure out the flaws and look for ways to exploit them.

But there are other ways to winning, without figures. However, as you mentioned, this would go against the mold, and, I would think, is alot harder than just picking up someone else's work. There's a paradigm in place for playing the races and it makes sense that all initiats would be expected to follow and embrace it.

Then again, novel methods wouldn't have all that competition.
And once you develop a more intuitive understanding of the game, you can properly incorporate figures into your method.

Think about what I'm saying: if you start with figures, it molds your perspective into a figure fueled one ---any analysis you do will always begin with a figure. Look at some of the better players on this forum; when they're making a point it always involves a number.

But this all ties in more generally with the way people have come to play races. They get the past performances and they try to make sense of the races for the card (or cards). This is a counterintuitive way to play, for me.

I'd rather make note of horses that have run exceptional races and wait for them to come back. Those are races I'll handicap. So I play where I have an opinion as a starting point rather than starting from scratch and looking for one.

If you need to play races where you basically don't have an opinion, then you certainly need figures as a way to distinguish between the horses. If you start off with a horse whose abilty level you've properly gauged in the past, and you know is sitting on a big effort, you can just go on with it (with qualifications, of course).

[ceejay]

Originally Posted by miraja2

The track variant often changes from one day to the next.

And sometiimes within a single day.....

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

But there are other ways to winning, without figures.

Of course there are, no problems there. I will say with your way, spotting a horse you have an opinion, you still have to compare him to the other horses in the field. My than one way to do things.