Hollywood Park takeout question.....

[Split Rock]

I posted this on another board but am wondering if anyone on this board can help me here.


Can someone help me with this? I'm more curious than anything.

In the 2nd race at Hollywood Park on Wed, opening day, it was amazingly clear that the #6 Smooth Performer was going to hit the board. So, I decided to calculate potential place and show payoffs with this horse. After calculating, I decided to bet $200 to show on it as the lowest payout would have been $2.60 if both 2nd and 3rd favorites came in with it. I felt one of them wouldnt so the payoff could have gone as high as $3.00.

Anyway, after the race was over, I calculated the show payoff assuming that Hollywood Park's takeout for show was about 23% on the high end.

If it is 23% takeout, the payoffs should have been:
6: $2.70 (reduced to $2.60)
4: $3.30 (reduced to $3.20)
1: $4.10 (reduced to $4.00)

Instead the payoffs were:
6: $2.40
4: $3.00
1: $3.80

The pools were:
Total: $18,588
6: $4923
4: $2595
1: $1638

If anyone is good at these calculations and can explain the difference, I would appreciate it. The only explanation I can see is the track takeout is 27.5% for WPS wagers and that would be robbery, if so.

[munster705]

Well,

I cant calculate that for you, but that's what you get for betting to show

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Split Rock

I posted this on another board but am wondering if anyone on this board can help me here.


Can someone help me with this? I'm more curious than anything.

In the 2nd race at Hollywood Park on Wed, opening day, it was amazingly clear that the #6 Smooth Performer was going to hit the board. So, I decided to calculate potential place and show payoffs with this horse. After calculating, I decided to bet $200 to show on it as the lowest payout would have been $2.60 if both 2nd and 3rd favorites came in with it. I felt one of them wouldnt so the payoff could have gone as high as $3.00.

Anyway, after the race was over, I calculated the show payoff assuming that Hollywood Park's takeout for show was about 23% on the high end.

If it is 23% takeout, the payoffs should have been:
6: $2.70 (reduced to $2.60)
4: $3.30 (reduced to $3.20)
1: $4.10 (reduced to $4.00)

Instead the payoffs were:
6: $2.40
4: $3.00
1: $3.80

The pools were:
Total: $18,588
6: $4923
4: $2595
1: $1638

If anyone is good at these calculations and can explain the difference, I would appreciate it. The only explanation I can see is the track takeout is 27.5% for WPS wagers and that would be robbery, if so.

those pools numbers might ALREADY have the takeout figured in. I know when they are showing the P6 pool, the takeout is already out of those figures, which is how you get 17 cents in the pool or whatever...

[hi_im_god]

i don't know if this is the reason but i suspect that you haven't calculated in breakage. breakage is the difference between the actual calculated payout and the nearest $.20 in california ($0.10 in other jurisdictions).

if the payout should be $2.29 after the takeout is calculated, the actual payout will be $2.20.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by Split Rock

I posted this on another board but am wondering if anyone on this board can help me here.


Can someone help me with this? I'm more curious than anything.

In the 2nd race at Hollywood Park on Wed, opening day, it was amazingly clear that the #6 Smooth Performer was going to hit the board. So, I decided to calculate potential place and show payoffs with this horse. After calculating, I decided to bet $200 to show on it as the lowest payout would have been $2.60 if both 2nd and 3rd favorites came in with it. I felt one of them wouldnt so the payoff could have gone as high as $3.00.

Anyway, after the race was over, I calculated the show payoff assuming that Hollywood Park's takeout for show was about 23% on the high end.

If it is 23% takeout, the payoffs should have been:
6: $2.70 (reduced to $2.60)
4: $3.30 (reduced to $3.20)
1: $4.10 (reduced to $4.00)

Instead the payoffs were:
6: $2.40
4: $3.00
1: $3.80

The pools were:
Total: $18,588
6: $4923
4: $2595
1: $1638

If anyone is good at these calculations and can explain the difference, I would appreciate it. The only explanation I can see is the track takeout is 27.5% for WPS wagers and that would be robbery, if so.

I think your pool total is wrong. I know your take out % is off. Try it with these:

total pool: 15,699
takeout: 15.43%

That should get you there.

[hi_im_god]

from the chrb mission statement:

The state's revenue from horse racing is principally derived from fees based upon a percentage of the pari-mutuel wagering pools, breakage (the odd cents not paid to winning ticket holders), and unclaimed tickets. Additional revenue is derived from licenses issued to horse owners, trainers, jockeys, grooms and others, and from fines imposed.

[Split Rock]

Originally Posted by munster705

Well,

I cant calculate that for you, but that's what you get for betting to show

Typical degenerate response. I figured there would be at least one social leper sitting in their mom's basement willing to take a shot at this post. Either way, thanks for reading.

[mark2061mn]

[quote=Split Rock]Typical degenerate response. I figured there would be at least one social leper sitting in their mom's basement willing to take a shot at this post. Either way, thanks for reading.[/QUOT


Don't let it bother you, some people like losing money everyday trying to get rich with a big score betting exotics. I make a living betting to show and I'm fine with the snide comments like these.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Split Rock

I posted this on another board but am wondering if anyone on this board can help me here.


Can someone help me with this? I'm more curious than anything.

In the 2nd race at Hollywood Park on Wed, opening day, it was amazingly clear that the #6 Smooth Performer was going to hit the board. So, I decided to calculate potential place and show payoffs with this horse. After calculating, I decided to bet $200 to show on it as the lowest payout would have been $2.60 if both 2nd and 3rd favorites came in with it. I felt one of them wouldnt so the payoff could have gone as high as $3.00.

Anyway, after the race was over, I calculated the show payoff assuming that Hollywood Park's takeout for show was about 23% on the high end.

If it is 23% takeout, the payoffs should have been:
6: $2.70 (reduced to $2.60)
4: $3.30 (reduced to $3.20)
1: $4.10 (reduced to $4.00)

Instead the payoffs were:
6: $2.40
4: $3.00
1: $3.80

The pools were:
Total: $18,588
6: $4923
4: $2595
1: $1638

If anyone is good at these calculations and can explain the difference, I would appreciate it. The only explanation I can see is the track takeout is 27.5% for WPS wagers and that would be robbery, if so.

Your pool figures are exactly what is shown at YouBet for that race. The takeout at Hollywood is 15.43%. Using the standard show bet calcs, I get:
6: $2.80
4: $3.60
1: $4.60

But the payoffs are what you posted, which are horrendously less. There are two possible explanations. First, YouBet could have screwed something up. Second, and the more likely explanation, there is something called "Net Pool Pricing", which unfortunately, makes it impossible to calculate the show payoffs from the pool info. It has something to do with incorporating foreign betting and different takeouts. You can Google it. Here's a pretty detailed explanation from the NYRA website: http://www.nyra.com/Belmont/Handicap...Wagering.shtml

NET POOL PRICING

The New York Racing Association is now calculating its pari-mutuel pools using a Net Pool Pricing model effective immediately. The 30 percent withholding tax on foreign winning pari-mutuel wagers was recently eliminated by the United States to enable the large amount of money wagered outside the country to be commingled. The change in pricing models permits countries such as Canada, England and others to commingle wagers into New York pools despite different legal deductions, takeouts, breakage and currency.

Net Pool Pricing allows each participating jurisdiction to abide by its mandated takeout rates without affecting the remainder of the network. For example, if a wagering site has a higher takeout than the host track, its payouts are lower. Conversely, a wagering site offering a lower takeout distributes higher payouts than the host track.

For New York fans, Net Pool Pricing will affect the way prices are calculated, but there will be no changes in prices under single-priced pools such as Win, Exacta, Trifecta and Pick Six. But, in multi-priced pools such as Place and Show, longshots may pay a little more while favorites may pay a little less. Fans will no longer be able to calculate prices from the pools listed on the toteboard because of the additional international variables that affect the algorithm.

Net Pool Pricing has been used successfully for years. American customers betting on the 1996 Breeders' Cup at Woodbine Racetrack in Toronto received mutuel information calculated by Net Pool Pricing. Woodbine, Arlington Park, and Emerald Downs have already moved to the Net Pool Pricing model.


NET POOL PRICING

The 30 percent withholding tax on foreign winning pari-mutuel wagers was eliminated by the United States to enable the large amount of money wagered outside the country to be commingled. For further expansion to occur, one of the requirements is to change to the tote calculating package that is most commonly used in the United States. This upgrade to Net Pool Pricing (NPP) enables U.S. tracks to deal with foreign tax rates and currency values.

Net Pool Pricing allows each jurisdiction participating in the pool to offer different retention rates (also known as takeout rates) than the host track should they elect or be regulated to do so. For example, if a participant chooses to use a higher takeout than the host track, they will have proportionately less weighting in the commingled pool than wagers with a lower takeout rate. Therefore, jurisdictions using a higher retention offer a lower payout to their customers and the remainder of the network is not affected. This also would work the other way should the participant use a lower takeout, and their respective prices would be higher than the host track.


FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
Q: Why is NYRA changing to Net Pool Pricing in order to commingle wagers from Canada?
A: Since some countries such as Canada have different legal deductions, takeouts, breaks and currency, Net Pool Pricing is needed to combine their wagers and accurately calculate prices throughout the network.

Q: Will changing to Net Pool Pricing affect the way prices are calculated?
A: Yes, the algorithm used to calculate the prices is different under Net Pool Pricing. You should see little to no changes in prices under single priced pools such as Win, Exacta and Trifecta. Longshots tend to pay a little more and favorites tend to pay a little less in multi-priced pools such as Place and Show.

Q: Why can’t I hand calculate the prices from the pool values on the tote board?
A: Since Net Pool Pricing uses a complex algorithm to calculate the prices there are many other variables that affect the calculation of the price which are not displayed on the tote board.

Q: Has Net Pool Pricing Been Proven to Work?
A: Yes, Canadian racetracks have been using Net Pool Pricing since the Breeders’ Cup was hosted by Woodbine in 1996. Customers betting on Woodbine in the U.S. have already been exposed to this calculation method. Many states have since adopted Net Pool Pricing in their regulations including the RCI Model Rules.

Q: Is Net Pool Pricing more susceptible to minus pools?
A: Due to the nature of the algorithm used in Net Pool Pricing on a split pool such as Place or Show, a heavy favorite will not drive the value down on the remaining runners as much as it does using the standard pricing method. This may result in the favorite paying $2.10 and the other horses paying more, which is generally more favorable to the betting public. The negative break is then attributed to the wager and that association who bet down the favorite.

Q: How can pools from two different currencies be merged together?
A: Net Pool Pricing allows for pools in different currencies to be merged together by applying a daily exchange rate before the foreign currency enters the pools and again to the prices before being paid to the public.

IMO it sucks that we can't verify the odds from the info we have access to. Even with the explanation, I don't see why the payouts should be so much smaller in the race you bet.

--Dunbar

[Split Rock]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

IMO it sucks that we can't verify the odds from the info we have access to. Even with the explanation, I don't see why the payouts should be so much smaller in the race you bet.

--Dunbar

Thank you for posting this. Another joke of a rule regarding horse racing. Think they would ever institute a rule that actually pays off the player more than previously? Not a chance.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Split Rock

Thank you for posting this. Another joke of a rule regarding horse racing. Think they would ever institute a rule that actually pays off the player more than previously? Not a chance.

In fairness, I have seen the payoffs sometimes higher due to this rule. It definitely happens sometimes when there is a minus pool. Under the "normal" show calc, a minus pool would pay $2.10 for each of the 3 horses; but with "net pool pricing", the 2 non-favs actually pay something more than $2.10.

--Dunbar

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Your pool figures are exactly what is shown at YouBet for that race. The takeout at Hollywood is 15.43%. --Dunbar

You cannot use the Youbet figures. They're not correct. If you added up all the show wagers on all the horses, it comes to far less than $18,588. It totals $15,699.

[munster705]

Originally Posted by Split Rock

Typical degenerate response. I figured there would be at least one social leper sitting in their mom's basement willing to take a shot at this post. Either way, thanks for reading.

Yeah Im sitting in the basement right now.......if you want to make 10 cents on the dollar, by all means go ahead

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by munster705

Yeah Im sitting in the basement right now.......if you want to make 10 cents on the dollar, by all means go ahead

Why the smart ass remark? He had a question and got some answers. Hopefully, when you were asking people to send you PPs for Tampa, Calder and The Meadowlands (instead of buying them yourself), people responded more kindly.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

You cannot use the Youbet figures. They're not correct. If you added up all the show wagers on all the horses, it comes to far less than $18,588. It totals $15,699.

Ah, I should have checked that. Good catch, STS. That probably means that the Total that YouBet shows reflects all pool money, but the individual amounts are from domestic outlets only. That's just a guess on my part.

Using the $15,699 figure for the total pool, with 15.43% takeout, I get that the payoffs would have been:

6: $2.40
4: $3.00
1: $3.60

These are the same as the actual payoffs, except for the show horse who paid $3.80. Assuming that my guess above is correct, it means that the foreign betting, a whopping 18,588-15,699=$2889, resulted in an increase in the show payoff on the #1 from what would have happened otherwise.

--Dunbar

[munster705]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

Why the smart ass remark? He had a question and got some answers. Hopefully, when you were asking people to send you PPs for Tampa, Calder and The Meadowlands (instead of buying them yourself), people responded more kindly.

Nah, you stuck up people would not put them on here. I could buy them myself, but that would involve driving to the track which is a good hike for me. I figured that it would not be harmful to ask and see if anybody would oblige. Not a big deal. I just don't understand show bettors, thats just me.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by munster705

Nah, you stuck up people would not put them on here. I could buy them myself, but that would involve driving to the track which is a good hike for me. I figured that it would not be harmful to ask and see if anybody would oblige. Not a big deal. I just don't understand show bettors, thats just me.

Hey numnuts, you understand the legality of posting copyrighted information right? Same goes for post files that have been bought online?

Get your hiking boats on...

[philcski]

Originally Posted by munster705

Nah, you stuck up people would not put them on here. I could buy them myself, but that would involve driving to the track which is a good hike for me. I figured that it would not be harmful to ask and see if anybody would oblige. Not a big deal. I just don't understand show bettors, thats just me.

Stuck up people? If you can't pony up $1 for each program on Brisnet.com, or $4 for 3 tracks on DRF.com, maybe you shouldn't be betting.

Just a thought.

[munster705]

Originally Posted by philcski

Stuck up people? If you can't pony up $1 for each program on Brisnet.com, or $4 for 3 tracks on DRF.com, maybe you shouldn't be betting.

Just a thought.

I seem to have ruffled some feathers. I wont post here anymore if you guys can't handle a touch of criticism. My initial post was about betting to show and you all want to bring other things into this. Thats fine. By the way, I like Z Fortune next Saturday. Got the free PP's off of DRF.COM. Geez I hope I dont get into trouble for looking at free information.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by munster705

I seem to have ruffled some feathers. I wont post here anymore if you guys can't handle a touch of criticism. My initial post was about betting to show and you all want to bring other things into this. Thats fine. By the way, I like Z Fortune next Saturday. Got the free PP's off of DRF.COM. Geez I hope I dont get into trouble for looking at free information.

I personally don't give a sh!t what type of bets people make, or how much they bet, but I do care for my fellow man and if you can't afford to buy your own PP's I don't think you should be betting.