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#1
05-17-2008, 03:34 AM
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5/17: Hi Ho.. Pimlico! (Preakness Day)
A glorious day appears on tap for Old Hilltop Saturday after rain disrupted the Pimlico Special/Black-Eyed Susan Day card with off-the-turf and a sloppy main track. While the heavily-scratched erstwhile grass events cancelled my P4 try, the late portion of the card became a success with a $257 tri in the Susie keyed by 7-1 Sweet Vendetta who also boosted the $354 Late P3.
I suggested being tactical Friday and prepared to 'adjust accordingly'. If you were listening to 'ATR' Friday, when confronted with the 7-1 on Contessa's NY bred and a plummeting 3-1 on Seattle Smooth, Sweet Vendetta became the focus of my own tickets. 'Best Value' top tab Seattle Smooth was the 'right' horse at anything near her 10-1 ML price, but wasn't as lovable at 3-1. She moved below 'Next Best' 3rd choice Vendetta who was hovering near her original 8-1, and the shift in opportunity enabled a different wager than originally intended and the very positive outcome. When #6 Joyous Jester upset heavily-bet Giant Move in the nightcap, a $350+ P3 was an unexpected bonus. I hope some were able to take advantage of the PIM Special/Preakness Double, as the Student Council victory turns likely feature winner Big Brown into an 8-1 ($20.20) horse from the $2.30 he'd pay if things go right. Hope you did well Friday... Saturday's card didn't excite me initially to the extent Friday's did, but yesterday's results, knowing it's going to be a nice afternoon, and the midday try by Dee Tee Stables' Kickin N Screamin in Arlington's 4th, are enough to get the juices flowing! PIMLICO RACE COURSE 3rd: 22nd MD Sprint H. (Gr. III), 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #3 Suave Jazz 9-5: A. Dutrow 5yo always runs his race.. 2nd Best Value: #1 Celtic Innis 10-1: Old favorite 2nd off long break; good @ PIM 4th Next Best: #7 Cognac Kisses 5-2 3rd Exotics Add: #4 Starforaday 4-1 WON 4th: The Deputed Testimony, MD-bred/3+, 8.5f (P4, DD, Super) Most Likely: #2 Let Me Be Frank 5-1 WON Best Value: #6 Wooded 10-1 3rd Next Best: #7 Off the Glass 3-1 6th Exotics Add: #8 Red Gulch 9-2 10th 5th: The Skipat, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super) Note that #1 (POE) Tight Storm is to be scratched after banging her head badly exiting van from NY.. Most Likely: #6 Akronism 8-5: Ritchey 4yo circling back to best.. WON Best Value: #3 My Sister Sue 6-1: Stiles broke ice Friday; Value and threat.. 2nd Next Best: #7 Drama Lady 3-1 4th Exotics Add: #4 Acinonyx 8-1 3rd $2 Exacta (6-3) Paid $40.00 $1 Trifecta Paid $79.80 $1 Superfecta Paid $193.70 6th: 57th Gallorette (Gr. III), F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super) Anyone notice that Matz is 0-for-17 with horses first time under his care? (#1 Valbenny 3-2); If he breaks that streak, he'll do it without my money, thanks.. Most Likely: #3 ROSHANI 2-1 WON Next Best: #2 Stormy West 3-1 4th Best Value: #5 SCR Exotics Add: #7 SCR 7th: 16th Barbaro, 3yo, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #3 Spurrier 5-2 3rd Best Value: #5 Da' Tara 6-1 2nd Next Best: #1 Roman Emperor 8-5 WON Exotics Add: #7 Wesley 5-1 5th $2 Exacta (1-5) Paid $12.00 $1 Trifecta Box Paid $12.60 <$50 P4 Play: 4: 2-6-7 5: 2-3-4-6-7 6: 3 7: 1-3-5 3x5x1x3 = $45 $1 Pick 4 $159.10 8th: Old Mutual Turf Sprint, 3+, 5f-T (P3, DD, Super) As discussed Friday on ATR, hard to embrace 8-5 favorite from the #12 (Heros Reward) in a 14 horse grass dash.. Most Likely: #6 Hesa Big Star 7-2 5th Best Value: #4 S K R's Spartan 20-1 11th Next Best: #12 Heros Reward 8-5 WON Exotics Add: #8 True to Tradition 6-1 2nd $1 Exacta (12-8) Paid $16.70 9th: 33rd Hirsch Jacobs (Gr. III), 3yo, 6f (P4, DD, Super) Most Likely: #8 Force Freeze 2-1 3rd Best Value: #1 Commandeered 6-1 5th Next Best: #3 Lantana Mob 8-5 WON Exotics Add: #2 Sheeler 10-1 6th 10th: 107th Dixie (Gr. II), 3+, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #4 Shakis 3-2: Mile just not his bag; Expect return to best.. 5th Best Value: #1 Headsandtales 20-1: Using local prominantly; Remember 'Mr. O'Brien'? 7th Next Best: #6 Stay Close 6-1: Expect solid 6yo better in this now than '07.. 2nd Exotics Add: #8 Salinja 6-1: May get a 'cut in ground' course he likes.. 9th 11th: 17th Allaire DuPont Distaff (Gr. II), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super) Outrageously well-matched group of fillies and mares in what may be the day's best race.. Opinion of the Next Move and Sweetzie at AQU instrumental here with Altesse, Runway Rosie and Wow Me Free having mixed it up in those.. Leaning towards mixed set of other faces and stalker types.. Most Likely: #4 Bear Now 5-1 3rd Next Best: #7 Buy the Barrel 6-1 WON Best Value: #6 Lexi Star 15-1 2nd Exotics Add: #9 SCR $2 Exacta (7-6) Paid $29.80 $1 Trifecta Paid $102.70 12th: 133rd Preakness Stakes (Gr. I), $1,000,000, 3yo, 9.75f (DD, Super) 1 Macho Again (Leparoux/Stewart) 20-1: 2nd Derby Trial winner shows up here after some indecision, and am inclined to think he's just a better one turn horse than true router; Looking elsewhere for exotic support.. 2 Tres Borrachos (Baze, T/Greely) 30-1: Re-rallyed for show money in Hot Springs Gr. III when last seen, and think he's a better horse than many indicate; Needs best yet to cash check, but is OK at bottom of deepest tri/super plays.. 3 Icabad Crane (Rose/Motion) 30-1: 3rd Note that NY bred has quietly won 3 of 4 career starts including traditional local prep, but think this spot a bit silly when nice Empire money lies waiting for him North on I-95; Honest horse but prefer several others more as the underneath players.. 4 Yankee Bravo (Solis/Gallagher) 15-1: Connections seem intent on proving this horse is more on dirt than we saw at NoLa, and aside from questionable aptitude on main, he's slow.. 5 SCR 6 Racecar Rhapsody (Albarado/McPeek) 30-1: 4th Midwestern version of Indian Sun appears neither fish nor fowl in that he doesn't finish the job on either main track while looking like an OK animal; Note this is only third start of the year for $400k bay O/O A.P. Indy mare; Not on my radar screen but probably a smart include on exotic plays.. 7 Big Brown (Desormeaux/Dutrow, R) 1-2: WON Not much else to say that hasn't been said about clearly special unbeaten Derby winner; Wagering the question mark with leaning on him as single in multis and trying to play against within race a reasonible option if rose run emptied the tank and total regression occurs; Most likely winner even with a step backwards.. 8 Kentucky Bear (Theriot/Baker) 15-1: One of few here actually in same zip code as favorite with blowout Florida debut and sneaky good Blue Grass as endorsements; Worktab stunningly good with Churchill/Keeneland regimine placing many in his corner and Baker sassy; Expect big effort.. 9 Stevil (Velazquez/Zito) 30-1: Zito-LaPenta grey has been solid if unspectacular while never missing a payday in 6 career starts; Note last 2 were much better and were around two turns, and you can make a case for him being as likely a superfecta horse as anyone here; Another Hemingway's Key perhaps? 10 Riley Tucker (Prado/Mott) 30-1: Here's another from the Racecar/Stevil mold of OK horses that just haven't been able to advance their causes much as sophomores; Mott Harlan's Holiday colt was a professional third in Lex while earning best figure yet, is bred for nicely today's trip and will be priced right; Not my favorite candidate but no doorknob either.. 11 Giant Moon (Dominguez/Schosberg) 30-1: Happy to see Schosberg get Mr. Fried's nice NY homebred to a Classic after slopfest Gotham derailed Derby hopes; Righted the ship with quality effort in the Wood and looks like he's pointing forward at right time; Should be forwardly-placed on even pace with Ramon back aboard, and could carry a long, long way at giant number.. 12 Gayego (Smith/Lobo) 8-1: Fact that Lobo soldiers on with Gilded Time colt an endorsement, but drew poorly again and really concerned that travel toll could be mounting on Gr. II Arky winner; Would need to get back to level of Hot Springs performance and I have my doubts we see that any time soon; Standing against.. 13 Hey Byrn (Lopez/Plesa) 20-1: J-T tandem combined for PIM Special placement Friday but face daunting task for Mrs. Oxenberg's Gr. III winner from lousy draw here; Needs to find spot to tuck in passing stands first time to save something for later; Would love to get him in exotics at what's sure to be overlay price, but looks severely compromised.. SELECTIONS: 1. #7 Big Brown WON 2. #8 Kentucky Bear 6th 3. #9 Stevil 5th 4. #11 Giant Moon 8th <$50 P4 Play: 9: 1-3-8 10: 1-4-6 11: 3-4-6-7-(9/SCR) 12: 7 3x3x4x1 = $36 13th: MSW, 3+, 6f (Super) Most Likely: #7 Basha's Moon 2-1 WON Best Value: #4 Diamond Flyer 6-1 2nd Next Best: #3 Short Dancer 5-2 3rd Exotics Add: #5 Homestead Strike 9-2 5th $1 Exacta (7-4) Paid $15.50 $1 Trifecta (7-4-3) Paid $42.50 Good luck! Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 05-18-2008 at 08:39 AM. 
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#2
05-17-2008, 07:47 AM
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I don't know what is more amazing...that you wrote this at 3:34 am or that 79 people have already viewed this thread.
Thanks for the hard work Steve, Spyder
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Don't sweat the petty things and don't pet the sweaty things.
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#3
05-17-2008, 07:51 AM
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#4
05-17-2008, 08:37 AM
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What about the 4 though, Lady Digby. 2nd to DOA at Tampa. J/T combo is 35% from a large sample. Her four 4 y.o. races are all improving efforts. Its 4/3/2/6 for me in P3's Thanks for the great write-ups Steve. Good Stuff
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#7
05-17-2008, 09:51 AM
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#8
05-17-2008, 10:03 AM
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DaHoss......let me be the first to say to you......Hi Ho!
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Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
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#9
05-17-2008, 10:05 AM
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1. 1,8,3,4,5
2. 2,8,3,1,4 3. 3,1,7,4,6 4. 10,8,6,1,2 5. 7,3,6,1,4 6. 3,4,1,6,2 7. 3,1,5,7,6 8. 9,1,8,12,4 9. 1,8,3,9,6 10. 2,6,4,5,8 11. 4,7,9,6,3 12. 7,9,3,12,8 13. 1,3,8,7,4 swedejxn's picks extended for tri's and supers....
__________________
I feel sorry for people who don't drink. They wake up in the morning and that's the best they are going to feel all day. Frank Sinatra
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#10
05-17-2008, 10:06 AM
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What time do they usually post the NY changes? I'm not usually up this early and have a horse I love. . .
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#11
05-17-2008, 10:07 AM
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11am. Only the 5th and 8th are off the turf.
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Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
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#12
05-17-2008, 10:09 AM
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#13
05-17-2008, 10:11 AM
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__________________
Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
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#15
05-17-2008, 11:40 AM
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Hello,
Any estimate what the P4 payout range will be if a couple price horses to come in in legs two and three and Big Brown wins with the $1m guaranteed pool? I hit the Special/Preakness Double for $5 and am considering playing vs. or singling BB in the P4 with the profit.
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#16
05-17-2008, 11:42 AM
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__________________
Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
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#18
05-17-2008, 11:56 AM
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Your down! I think you mean the 4th.
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Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
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#20
05-17-2008, 11:58 AM
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OK, let me try to follow your logic, and please....stick with me as I'm more than a little slow.......You are assuming Big Brown will win but want to know if you should bet 90% of your profits against him? How am I doing?
__________________
Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
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