A question for the handicappers

[my miss storm cat]

... and by that I mean those of you who play a LOT and consider yourselves handicappers (as opposed to considering yourselves fans).

I was reading sdjcom's thread about whether or not Big Brown should be scratched and I'll admit I breifly wondered about the same thing but only because I'm not around horses, haven't ridden one since i was a kid, and don't really know how bad a quarter crack can be.

I don't agree, don't think it's a major concern but I'm being honest and at first wondered.

Anyway I was curious about some of you... how often, if ever, you're around / have been around horses.

Have you ever ridden and, if so, lately? A lot? Never? Allergic? Scared?

Just wondering about your experiences.

[blackthroatedwind]

Just to be clear....the quarter crack is not really an issue. The actual issue is probably whether or not the four or five days of missed training, in the three week period between races, will effect him negatively enough to alter the outcome.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Just to be clear....the quarter crack is not really an issue. The actual issue is probably whether or not the four or five days of missed training, in the three week period between races, will effect him negatively enough to alter the outcome.

Okay thanks.

I wasn't sure.

As far as the horsie question, want to answer?

No pressure.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

Anyway I was curious about some of you... how often, if ever, you're around / have been around horses.

My parents both trained - and I've hotwalked them before and was around them a lot when I was younger.

I don't think it's any handicapping advantage to have worked around them or ridden them before ... other than with pre-race body language stuff.

Still, you have to know the horse you are looking at well to have any edge with the body langauge stuff.

Some horses look bad or do stuff like wash out bad before almost every race .. so them doing so on race day wouldn't be a disadvantage because the form has been established with them showing similarly discouraging signs in the pre-race.

Some horses will almost always look the part in the pre-race - have a quiet confident controlled energy to them and look well - what good is that if they've established their form that way?

Perhaps the ravest reviews any horse has ever got on TV in the pre-race this year came from Frank Lyons before the Blue Grass. "The way Pyro looks now - every horse in this race should be 99/1" was how it started - and it was followed with even more extreme hyperbole - comparing him with Muhammed Ali and everything else. He ran 10th at even money.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I don't think it's any handicapping advantage to have worked around them or ridden them before ...

Thank you for your answer and yeah, I agree with the above.

It's really just that I was curious about a lot of you.

It seems like a lot of people here grew up reading all the horsie books, riding, a lot still do so I was just wondering about the playahs.....

What i really want to know is which of you, if any, have never been on a horse.

Again, just curious.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I gave up riding when I turned 8.

[my miss storm cat]

Oh cute!

Is that your mom? Very pretty.

Thanks for posting that.

[blackthroatedwind]

DrugS's mom is hot......though I'm assuming he's adopted.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

DrugS's mom is hot......though I'm assuming he's adopted.

You're mean.

Still no answer?


Okay.


Be that way.


It's fine.


No, really.


(Note to self - must sharpen Catholic guilt-ing skills).

[herkhorse]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Just to be clear....the quarter crack is not really an issue. The actual issue is probably whether or not the four or five days of missed training, in the three week period between races, will effect him negatively enough to alter the outcome.

"It's even possible these couple of days he missed might be to his advantage," Dutrow said.

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

My parents both trained - and I've hotwalked them before and was around them a lot when I was younger.

I don't think it's any handicapping advantage to have worked around them or ridden them before ... other than with pre-race body language stuff.

Still, you have to know the horse you are looking at well to have any edge with the body langauge stuff.

Some horses look bad or do stuff like wash out bad before almost every race .. so them doing so on race day wouldn't be a disadvantage because the form has been established with them showing similarly discouraging signs in the pre-race.

Some horses will almost always look the part in the pre-race - have a quiet confident controlled energy to them and look well - what good is that if they've established their form that way?

Perhaps the ravest reviews any horse has ever got on TV in the pre-race this year came from Frank Lyons before the Blue Grass. "The way Pyro looks now - every horse in this race should be 99/1" was how it started - and it was followed with even more extreme hyperbole - comparing him with Muhammed Ali and everything else. He ran 10th at even money.

This is what I would have said. I don't think you need to have been around or worked with horses to become a good handicapper, but in some ways it can help you get started. Knowing what to look for can be a big part of it, especially as 2yo's or unraced 3yo's are concerned. Being around and working with horses certainly gets you to grips with conformation, what's desirable and undesirable for racehorses.

Riding certainly allows you to have a feel for a horse and allows you to understand the horse's movement but unless you have ridden the horses you are betting on (or against) it has very little to do with the handicapping side of this sport.

Understanding pedigrees can also be beneficial, but again it isn't a must.

Regarding the quarter crack, it all depends how bad it is/was. Quarter cracks can range from being a minor issue to quite a serious problem. Depending how big/deep the crack is. I'm guessing that the crack that Big Brown has suffered is only a small one. As long as he doesn't miss too much work, it should not cause a problem. I think the distance will cause more of a problem than the quarter crack will. This setback will give connections every opportunity to use that excuse, though.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Perhaps the ravest reviews any horse has ever got on TV in the pre-race this year came from Frank Lyons before the Blue Grass. "The way Pyro looks now - every horse in this race should be 99/1" was how it started - and it was followed with even more extreme hyperbole - comparing him with Muhammed Ali and everything else. He ran 10th at even money.

Franks hyperbolic review of Pyro will most certainly be eclipsed by what we are soon to hear from him regarding Big Brown.

He is at Belmont now and phoned in a report to TVG yesterday and its already started. he said things like Big Brown now is twice the horse compared to the Big Brown that won the derby. He said something else like the best horse he has ever seen in his life prior to Big Brown is only about half of what Big Brown is now. Couldn't look any better, etc,etc,etc.

[blackthroatedwind]

There's nothing like people in racing on TV that favor horses and connections.

[ShadowRoll]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

... and by that I mean those of you who play a LOT and consider yourselves handicappers (as opposed to considering yourselves fans).

I was reading sdjcom's thread about whether or not Big Brown should be scratched and I'll admit I breifly wondered about the same thing but only because I'm not around horses, haven't ridden one since i was a kid, and don't really know how bad a quarter crack can be.

I don't agree, don't think it's a major concern but I'm being honest and at first wondered.

Anyway I was curious about some of you... how often, if ever, you're around / have been around horses.

Have you ever ridden and, if so, lately? A lot? Never? Allergic? Scared?

Just wondering about your experiences.

Not sure I fit your specifications, since I'm as much of a fan as a handicapper, but here goes.

Before last summer, I'd never been on a horse before, was even a little scared of them. But I live in a county in Pennsylvania that's real horse country -- more thoroughbreds than any other PA county, plenty of farms with connections to famous horses (e.g., Barbaro, Smarty Jones), I even think Michael Matz lives in my township -- so I thought it incumbent upon me, given all the opportunities, to find out what it was like to ride.

I signed up for this short (8 weekends?) riding course at one of the local farms. Although the actual teaching was conducted mostly by teenage girls, which didn't instill me with a lot of confidence, they had us doing low jumps by the third lesson. I generally rode a retired racehorse, which was pretty cool. I never fell off, but came close a few times. There were a couple of things I thought I undertsood, intellectually, about horses, but which I came to realize that I could only really appreciate, viscerally, by experiencing them.

First, horses listen only because they want to listen. They can be as obstreperous and resentful or as obliging and content as any person. They won't do, and you can't make them do, anything they don't want to do.

Second, jockies are crazy mf'ers. Horses are so big and powerful, and their reflexes so much quicker than humans, that any feeling of being secure in the saddle is only an illusion. A jock is really no more in control than a leaf riding a dust devil.

As far as handicapping, I guess I'm a lot more aware that these animals aren't black boxes, and that their performances can be as much a result of the vagaries of their mood as of their ability. This has made me more willing to discount isolated bad performances and more willing to give further consideration to horses I might have otherwise cursorily written off as non-contenders. It's also made me appreciate how a good trainer -- one that keeps the horse healthy and happy -- can improve performance. No matter how bad the recent form, I pay close attention when a horse is claimed back by a trainer that was more successful with the animal in the past, especially when there's a little time off before the next start. Also, as was said above, being able to observe at close range the body language of horses, which I'd previously only read about, has been helpful.

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by ShadowRoll

As far as handicapping, I guess I'm a lot more aware that these animals aren't black boxes, and that their performances can be as much a result of the vagaries of their mood as of their ability. This has made me more willing to discount isolated bad performances and more willing to give further consideration to horses I might have otherwise cursorily written off as non-contenders. It's also made me appreciate how a good trainer -- one that keeps the horse healthy and happy -- can improve performance. No matter how bad the recent form, I pay close attention when a horse is claimed back by a trainer that was more successful with the animal in the past, especially when there's a little time off before the next start. Also, as was said above, being able to observe at close range the body language of horses, which I'd previously only read about, has been helpful.

Without a doubt. The phrase that is used a lot over here (not sure whether it is used acorss the pond) is "horses aren't machines". As simple as that may sound, there are many people who think horses should perform to the same ability everytime they hit the track. Thankfully, many of them usually do run 'their' race to the height of their ability. BUT, like humans, they have 'off' days, and to this respect, working with them allows you to appreciate this more. I work on a stud farm, and some of these mares can be the most placid animals you will have ever seen on any given day, but you can't be sure that will show the same attitude on the following day.

I do think that being around horses does have hidden advantages to handicapping.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by ShadowRoll

Not sure I fit your specifications, since I'm as much of a fan as a handicapper, but here goes.

Before last summer, I'd never been on a horse before, was even a little scared of them. But I live in a county in Pennsylvania that's real horse country -- more thoroughbreds than any other PA county, plenty of farms with connections to famous horses (e.g., Barbaro, Smarty Jones), I even think Michael Matz lives in my township -- so I thought it incumbent upon me, given all the opportunities, to find out what it was like to ride.

I signed up for this short (8 weekends?) riding course at one of the local farms. Although the actual teaching was conducted mostly by teenage girls, which didn't instill me with a lot of confidence, they had us doing low jumps by the third lesson. I generally rode a retired racehorse, which was pretty cool. I never fell off, but came close a few times. There were a couple of things I thought I undertsood, intellectually, about horses, but which I came to realize that I could only really appreciate, viscerally, by experiencing them.

This is exactly what i wanted to hear about.... thank you for answering.

Fun read.

[rontheman1964]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Franks hyperbolic review of Pyro will most certainly be eclipsed by what we are soon to hear from him regarding Big Brown.

He is at Belmont now and phoned in a report to TVG yesterday and its already started. he said things like Big Brown now is twice the horse compared to the Big Brown that won the derby. He said something else like the best horse he has ever seen in his life prior to Big Brown is only about half of what Big Brown is now. Couldn't look any better, etc,etc,etc.

Awesome....do you think it has anything to do with Frank being part of the IEAH group??? Did any of you see this??? (Sorry if it has already been posted.)

http://youtube.com/watch?v=DZVWJo52boo#

[philcski]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

... and by that I mean those of you who play a LOT and consider yourselves handicappers (as opposed to considering yourselves fans).

I was reading sdjcom's thread about whether or not Big Brown should be scratched and I'll admit I breifly wondered about the same thing but only because I'm not around horses, haven't ridden one since i was a kid, and don't really know how bad a quarter crack can be.

I don't agree, don't think it's a major concern but I'm being honest and at first wondered.

Anyway I was curious about some of you... how often, if ever, you're around / have been around horses.

Have you ever ridden and, if so, lately? A lot? Never? Allergic? Scared?

Just wondering about your experiences.

I ride, very badly I might add, thankfully the horse I ride knows that and takes care of me.

[pick4]

Dutrow Jr. hired the "best blacksmith" there is in Ian McKinlay. I'm a handicapper and a fan of racing so I'm definately not an expert on equine maintenance. However since Dutrow Jr. says the horse is A OK and the 1/4 crack is not a big deal. McKinlay says this 1/4 crack is not a big deal. I have to believe the experts on this one. The IEAH crowd are total scumbags and part of me wants them to run Big Brown and lose. But I think he's going to win the Belmont. We'll remember the horse down the road and not the 3/4owners and their hanger ons.

[Bobby Fischer]

I've had no experience riding apart from pony rides and trail types of things as a little kid. Never been on a race horse.

I have to call on a general sense of timing for sports or action, and a visual eye of talent. For me I could watch a cheetah and a gazelle race, or running back, or a horse, it doesn't matter.

I agree with what DrugS said about having a book on that specific horse to be able to really handicap with slight positive or negative signs. Some horses look like a million dollars, and they always do, and they aren't good racehorses. (&vice versa)

I try to be conservative with major negative signs like a seeing a stride abnormality in the replays, or looking very sickly in the post parade, I believe in passing the race if they are an important part of your play.

& I am scared of horses. I had heart surgeries, I am not trying to ride a horse or get kicked.