7/10: Belmont ($40k Carryover)

Kasept · #1 07-10-2008, 08:32 AM

Was nosed out of what would have been a nice P4 score Wednesday when 13-1 Prince Woodman got agonizingly photoed by Gambolatti's Buffalo Man in listed stake feature. John Candlin's $83 Kitty Nip assured a P6 carryover in the 4th, but it is a treacherous sextet...

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: NYB-MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P6, P3)

Most Likely: #8 Smokin Hero 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Paramedic 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Bitabiz 4-1 4th
Exotics Add: #4 Heir to the Stone 8-1 WON

5th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f (G/S, P3)

Most Likely: #1 Skylighter 4-1 WON
Next Best: #5 Tourism 5-2 6th
Best Value: #4 Borrowing Base 15-1 3rd

6th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Brutally tough state-bred grass heat..

Most Likely: #4 Al Amir 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 SCR
Best Value: #6 Dubliner 15-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Cardiff Road 6-1 6th

7th: NYB-AW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m (P3)

Most Likely: #1a Main Street (Levine entry) 2-1 WON
Next Best: #2 (POE) Oniyome 9-5 3rd
Best Value: #4 Dewanee 15-1 2nd

8th: French Colonial, 3yo, 9f-IT (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Run Sully Run 4-1 6th
Best Value: #4 Willsboro Point 6-1 WON
Next Best: #8 Vacation 6-1 5th
Super Add: #10 Big Al 10-1 3rd

9th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 1m-T (Super)

Most Likely: #6 Couth 8-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Youbethecan 10-1 4th
Next Best: #13 Mondo Diverso 20-1 9th
Super Add: #3 Hanginbyathread 20-1WON

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 8
5: 1-3-4-5-6
6: 4-6-7-8
7: 1-2
8: 6
9: 1-6

1x5x4x2x1x2 = 80 x $2 = $160

<$72 P4 Play:

6: 4-7
7: 1-2
8: 4-5-6-8
9: 1-3-5-6-13 ($1 Pick 3 (1-4-3) 3 Correct Paid $222.75)

2x2x4x5 = $80

Good luck!
Steve

herkhorse · #2 07-10-2008, 08:49 AM

Good Luck all, looks like a tough card. Might try this ticket, will have to check for scratches.

8/5-6/3-5-8/1-2-9/2/5-7

blackthroatedwind · #3 07-10-2008, 10:00 AM

You need to rethink the 5th race. There is a standout in there that you didn't include.

Kasept · #4 07-10-2008, 10:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You need to rethink the 5th race. There is a standout in there that you didn't include.

The Kimmel.. I know. Am really stymied by the 5th. Was 'All' to start with.. Want to see if scratches assist...

parsixfarms · #5 07-10-2008, 11:12 AM

Actually, I thought that BTW was referring to Better Again. She exits a very tough NW1X, has tactical speed in a race pretty devoid of it (with a nice outside post), and since having blinkers added three back, she has run consistently better numbers than her competition in here. For what it's worth, I'd probably look at Tourism and Spring Elusion as the main competition. IMO, Skylighter is an absolute bet-against.

Handicappy · #6 07-10-2008, 11:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You need to rethink the 5th race. There is a standout in there that you didn't include.

I also like Better Again who appears to be learning how to rate a bit and has some speed and was beaten by 8 last out but to Music Note. Tough race to call here.

Handicappy · #7 07-10-2008, 11:28 AM

Parsixfarms- don't know if I'd see skylighter as a total bet against. While last was more then competitive here it was a career top. Frankel gave her 8 weeks. She shows some solid and consistent works and is cutting back from a 1 1/16. I'm not sure about her but she isn't easy to dismiss thats for sure.

Kasept · #8 07-10-2008, 11:30 AM

4

3 Trinity Magic Early
7 Cat Three Approach Early

6

7 Woodrunner Early
11 Fortune Faded Early
12 Ring Bernadette Early

7

1 (poe) Chanced Early
2B Critical Cathy Early
5 Koufax Curve Early
9 Madam Commander Early

8

2 El Sultry Sun Early
3 Russian Sage Early
11 Acai Early

9

1A Saint Barr Early
7 Cougar Bay (IRE) Early
11 Conrad Crossing Early
15 Lee Stewart Early

Kasept · #9 07-10-2008, 11:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Actually, I thought that BTW was referring to Better Again. She exits a very tough NW1X, has tactical speed in a race pretty devoid of it (with a nice outside post), and since having blinkers added three back, she has run consistently better numbers than her competition in here. For what it's worth, I'd probably look at Tourism and Spring Elusion as the main competition. IMO, Skylighter is an absolute bet-against.

Better Again was in the P6 play..

Handicappy · #10 07-10-2008, 11:36 AM

Weird question I think. Can anyone tell me why EVERYONE is over-looking Alchera in the 7th? ML is 20/1 and while her last race was dismal, it was against open company. Her mile efforts put her right in with these. The only down side here seems to be she hasn't gotten it done at Belmont. But she has been in the money 7 of 9 times at Belmont and has a 1st and 2nd of 3 races at the distance over-all. Just seems to be alot of value there. At least in my bewildered brain.

hoovesupsideyourhead · #11 07-10-2008, 11:42 AM

race 4

pp 4/5/8

race 5

pp 3/6

race 6

pp 4/10

race 7

pp 2a /1a/7

race 8

4/1/10

race 9

5/1/10

parsixfarms · #12 07-10-2008, 11:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Handicappy

Parsixfarms- don't know if I'd see skylighter as a total bet against. While last was more then competitive here it was a career top. Frankel gave her 8 weeks. She shows some solid and consistent works and is cutting back from a 1 1/16. I'm not sure about her but she isn't easy to dismiss thats for sure.

After failing repeatedly at short odds (and Frankel gave her every chance, on dirt, synthetic, turf, long and short), Skylighter finally broke through in a very ordinary MSW race in which she was able to wear down Anachronism, another money-burner who had absolutely no excuse that day. A daughter of the hugely-disappointing Sky Mesa, she has little early zip and will be a tactical disadvantage against fillies that appear more talented than her. Frankel's horses are almost always overbet, so I'd be willing to toss her at what is likely to be a shortish price.

Handicappy · #13 07-10-2008, 11:56 AM

Parsixfarms - Thanks for your thorough analysis. I think I get overly impressed by speed figs and I don't consider the company they are running in. So thanks.

Kasept · #14 07-10-2008, 12:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Handicappy

Weird question I think. Can anyone tell me why EVERYONE is over-looking Alchera in the 7th? ML is 20/1 and while her last race was dismal, it was against open company. Her mile efforts put her right in with these. The only down side here seems to be she hasn't gotten it done at Belmont. But she has been in the money 7 of 9 times at Belmont and has a 1st and 2nd of 3 races at the distance over-all. Just seems to be alot of value there. At least in my bewildered brain.

From the great Paulino Ortiz! (Who has had an amazing meet). Seems best used underneath... The Hushion/Levine numbers look tough to topple there.

Handicappy · #15 07-10-2008, 12:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

From the great Paulino Ortiz! (Who has had an amazing meet). Seems best used underneath... The Hushion/Levine numbers look tough to topple there.

All right, all right. I did say it was a weird question. I get the message. lol. Sounds like your having a good vacation. Can't wait for Saratoga, Divine Park in the Whitney and a drink afterward at the Adelphi. Thanks for straightening me out. .. Now the darn horse will fly!

Kasept · #16 07-10-2008, 12:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Handicappy

All right, all right. I did say it was a weird question. I get the message. lol. Sounds like your having a good vacation. Can't wait for Saratoga, Divine Park in the Whitney and a drink afterward at the Adelphi. Thanks for straightening me out. .. Now the darn horse will fly!

Don't get me wrong.. I'm a BIG Paulino Ortiz fan having cashed many of his typical 38-1 runners over the years... My pal Jim Ortiz (no relation) tipped me off to Paulino around 1988...

Am having a VERY nice break... Thx! See you at Saratoga!

Handicappy · #17 07-10-2008, 01:16 PM

8/3,6/4,9/1a,2/6,7/6

$32.00

Very hard sequence.

peetsa · #18 07-10-2008, 02:48 PM

Race #6 (grass only) #1 In The Spotlight might be in a good spot here at a price.

the_fat_man · #19 07-10-2008, 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by peetsa

Race #6 (grass only) #1 In The Spotlight might be in a good spot here at a price.

Why is that?

Handicappy · #20 07-10-2008, 02:56 PM

Nice job Hooves with the 4 in race 4.