8/18 Saratoga (Week 4 Finale)

[Kasept]

Wrapped up a frustrating weekend Sunday by capping well and wagering poorly a second day in a row. Left a lot of money on the table, particularly a late P4 worth $1,900 ($1) where I think I had the right idea going after the 10th race price. But I blew it.

Ridge Royale ($13.40) delivered as a on top "Best Value-Best Bet" in the 7th to get things started, and though I was unable to edit plays post-SCR/CHG's, I'm hopeful most recognized that AE-11 Stepaside ($6.30) had drawn into the 8th and was a must use. I used Stepaside on my own ticket, (whom you may recall we all hit with in his first Spa start), but then left "Next Best" Summer Patriot ($3.10) off the third leg of the ticket as a budget move... Uggh! Then Sciacca scored in the nightcap with Frisky Rosie ($18.80) and the Quad returns nearly $2,000 for a buck.

Had other OK results including the other "Best Value-Best Bet" Kiss the Cruiser in the opener ($13.40), but overall I felt like it was a "Lost Weekend". Del Mar Carryover brightened the evening with 3 $221.80 consos ($665.40) on the $192.00 I suggested. Hope you did well. Let's wrap up the 2nd trident of the meet with a bang!


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: CLM/N2L, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Windication 3-1 6th
Best Value: #5 Last Tram 5-1 WON
Next Best: #7 Know the Game 5-2 5th


2nd: NYB-MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Aoja 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Well Meant 15-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Head Hoof Heart 8-1 2nd


3rd: NYB-OC/N2X, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Lorccan 3-1 WON
Best Value: #5 Raffit 9-2 4th
Next Best: #2 Lee Stewart 4-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (3-2) Paid $11.70


4th: CLM, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 More Than a Reason 4-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Pocatello 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 M V P Grand 15-1 6th


5th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 1m-IT (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #9 Ready or Not 8-1 5th
Most Likely: #10 Big Wig 4-1 WON
Next Best: #4 The Cuban Hawk 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #7 Titan of Industry 5-2 2nd

$1 Exacta (10-7) Paid $13.80
$1 Trifecta (10-7-4) Paid $41.00


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-3-7
3: 2-3-5
4: 5-6
5: 4-7-9-10

3x3x2x4 = $72


6th: The Mechanicville, NYB-3+, 5.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Silver Timber 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Can't Refuse 30-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Redefined 2-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Ahvee's Destiny 8-1 WON


7th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Sweet Ransom 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Stately 8-1 8th
Next Best: #1 (POE) Country Star 2-1 WON


8th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #9 Bagavond 12-1 4th
Most Likely: #10 Mr Sam I Am 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #4 Inside Info 15-1 7th
Super Add: #5 River of Dreams 20-1 8th


9th: 5th Union Avenue, NYB F&M-3+, 6f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 By the Light 6-5 WON
Best Value: #3 SCR
Next Best: #8 SCR (SCR add #4 Street Sass 12-1 5th)
Super Add: #1 Summer Palace 5-1 7th


10th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 5.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #7 UNITY 5-2
Best Value: #5 SCR (SCR add #11 Tee With the Tiger 12-1 6th)
Next Best: #8 Multidude 7-2 10th
Super Add: #6 Sir Dunstan 12-1 5th


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-4-6
8: 1-4-5-6-9-10
9: 1-(3/SCR)-4-7
10: 7

3x6x3x1 = $54

$1 Pick 4 (1-6-7-7) $34.75


Good luck!
Steve

[CSC]

I'm at lunch at 1 today so I think I'll paly the 1st, Last Tram looks like a standout. Maker seems to have improved this horse since Bowman trained him. Takes the drop...If he's half alive he should be the one. Know The Game is very unreliable and is always bet, time to try someone new and if he beats you at 2-1 great...

[tdtony]

steve in the 3rd race raffit is #5

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by tdtony

steve in the 3rd race raffit is #5

Thx Tony! Fixed it and adjusted for changes/scratches..

[Mike]

I like a few horses Steve has listed already in his picks, but also have Canadian Ballet in the 6th.
Will also box the heavy fave By the Light with Light Tactic in the 9th
In the 7th, I'll tri key heavy fave Country Star over Sweet Ransom and Stately

[pointman]

Steve, didn't cap today as I thought work would prevent me from paying any attention, but situation changed, so I am going with your early and late pk4 for some action. Good luck today!

[Heels1989]

Jumping in today with a couple of late P4 stabs:

$48
R7 1/4/5/6
R8 4/6/9/10
R9 1/4/7
R10 7

$48
R7 1/4/5/6
R8 3/8/10
R9 7
R10 7/8/9/10

[CSC]

Marie Rossa in the 7th, horse has interesting names in her back form. Motion is due.

[NoLuvForPletch]

1-4 on By The Light? That seems a tad short to me considering this is her first race against older fillies and mares. I like Summer Palace breaking from the rail with no other real speed signed on due to the scratch of Sweet Lorena.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

1-4 on By The Light? That seems a tad short to me considering this is her first race against older fillies and mares. I like Summer Palace breaking from the rail with no other real speed signed on due to the scratch of Sweet Lorena.

I put a few on the 1 and the 9, just for fun in the 9th. The 10th I like Dr. Decter a first time starter for Tagg.

Goodluck.

[jms62]

WTF was Dominquez trying to do with 9-Salt Water Reign ??? That horse had some run left..

[Gauchos0522]

Originally Posted by jms62

WTF was Dominquez trying to do with 9-Salt Water Reign ??? That horse had some run left..

I guess but it looked to me she sat an absolute perfect trip and couldn't get to the top 3. The winner had to check due to her and still ran by her with relative ease.

[NoLuvForPletch]

WTF was Coa doing with the Tagg horse in the 10th? What was the hurry after he broke last? He was soooooo much the best.

[PSH]

Steve:

Great job on your highligted bold plays the last couple of days.
Unity in the nightcap today and you also had a couple at Saratoga yesterday including the Buckley horse in the first and the single yesterday in the next to last race at Del Mar. I have been right there with you on these bolded plays.

Paul

[caf]

Congrats to Tar Heel with his score on the pick 4...

[Heels1989]

Originally Posted by caf

Congrats to Tar Heel with his score on the pick 4...

Big welcome to the DT board to my long time friend, Caf-man.

Right out of the box with a smart a$$ comment.

I can't even go to Sizzler with today's hit.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Gauchos0522

I guess but it looked to me she sat an absolute perfect trip and couldn't get to the top 3. The winner had to check due to her and still ran by her with relative ease.

Wrong. Watch the final furlong again. Dominquez had plenty of horse late and tried to squeeze through at the rail but had to give up as he had nowhere to go.. Of course Light Tatic went by with relative ease as Dominquez had to give up his quest to get through...

[CSC]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

WTF was Coa doing with the Tagg horse in the 10th? What was the hurry after he broke last? He was soooooo much the best.

I thought Dr. Decter ran like a 1st time starter with alot of promise yesterday, he made a big move on the turn and then flattened out. Coa perhaps moved a tad early and he hung abit towards the end. The unfortunate thing now is for those who liked him in yesterday's race will not get anything near the 8-1 they got on him yesterday. A missed opportunity I thought.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by CSC

I thought Dr. Decter ran like a 1st time starter with alot of promise yesterday, he made a big move on the turn and then flattened out. Coa perhaps moved a tad early and he hung abit towards the end. The unfortunate thing now is for those who liked him in yesterday's race will not get anything near the 8-1 they got on him yesterday. A missed opportunity I thought.

He did make a nice move into contention after getting squeezed at the start, and he's almost certainly the best horse in yesterday's race, but he's also a 4YO who debuted in August.....26 months after being purchased as a 2YO.

Can anyone say major problems?

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He did make a nice move into contention after getting squeezed at the start, and he's almost certainly the best horse in yesterday's race, but he's also a 4YO who debuted in August.....26 months after being purchased as a 2YO.

Can anyone say major problems?

He won't be a price next time out, so it's probably moot. But I'm not willing to conceded anything to him. While the bad luck makes him look superior on the surface, I'm not certain that was exactly the case. If he breaks, he hooks the 4 earlier and after running that accelerated 2nd quarter, the race probably collapses in time rather than too late. The perfect trip winner probably still wins, though I'm not certain that any number of horses running late wouldn't have gotten up.