Travers Play

While races are decided over the track, as they should be, it is difficult to make a off the paper case for anyone other than Colonel John. Using generally accepted handicapping factors such as pace, class, current form etc. he towers over these.

A few will question his ability to get the distance and many more will argue he is a polytrack horse, but neither concern us. True, the weak quality of the field ( no one within ten lengths of par) coupled with his attractive morning line may increase our play but if he runs his race, he is the one to beat.

The case for the others in no particular order:

Zito/La Penta run a trio with two over the top and Cool Coal Man up against it. Nick has had real difficulty keeping weight on CCM and his best puts him behind more than a few in here. Smallish colt picks up eight pounds, J. R. and would need a new top by many.

Tale of Ekati one of three Grade I victors in here has never indicated ten panels is within his scope and could get shuffled back when the speed stops. Nice price but not for us.

A pair of roan Macho Uno's enter off solid victories. Macho Again annexed the Jim Dandy but picks up big weight and should regress. Harlem Rocker is unbeaten on dirt and has worked very well for this but takes a quantum leap in class and will be favored. We expect him to run well and always fear Coa when he is drawn outside our horses. Nevertheless one we have to beat.

"Mambo has improved a ton and his work Tuesday had Neil grinning like a cheshire cat in a mice factory but this is his graded stakes debut and he too picks up substantial poundage. Robby on board for the work, looks for his tenth Grade I in NY ( that is if he doesn't get it a half hour earlier, if not next week) and is also quietly confident. Not hopeless but no value.

Pyro may also be over the top and ten panels challenges that pedigree.

Tizbig and Tres Barrachos should both contribute to the pace but have little chance, and Court Vision is sitting on a big one but the post, poundage and surface will work to his disadvantage, although he can get a piece at a price.

The case for the Colonel:

Named for the soldier that helped when Kari Casner was killed in the 2002 Bali bombing this one was always cut out to be a good one. Sent to the very talented Harty he finished with a flourish in all four juvenile starts.

Tiznow homebred matured nicely and took the Sham in his sophomore debut with a last eighth in sub :12 before running them all down in the Santa Anita Derby again with a big late move. Shipped to Kentucky he worked a silly fast bullet six days out with fractions of :11 and 2, eleven and three, eleven flat, eleven and four and eleven and four out in ten and change!! Then in the race he was mugged at the start and bothered in the first turn before a "bold rally while very wide" before taking a bad step and losing momentum and coasting home a well beaten sixth. Dirt will be no problem off that work, race and plans call for Bossier City next.

After the Derby he was turned out, fattened up and returned to Harty who worked him every six days and entered him in the Swaps. Alas he was beat when the entries were drawn, yet ran his best race to date. In fact, on most services he has ran faster each subsequent start. Since, he has worked every six days with super sonic August 12th move while well in hand and over a second faster than the second best work. Current form; outstanding.

On pace, it is difficult to imagine the Colonel not getting a good seat with two speed horses to his outside and Gomez very familiar. Also as he has matured his tactical has improved immensely.

In conclusion, it looks good for the Colonel at bettable odds. In fact, now with Big Brown finally coming unglued maybe the Colonel takes center stage in the three year old division. A win today would go a long way indeed! BBB

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

While races are decided over the track, as they should be, it is difficult to make a off the paper case for anyone other than Colonel John. Using generally accepted handicapping factors such as pace, class, current form etc. he towers over these.

A few will question his ability to get the distance and many more will argue he is a polytrack horse, but neither concern us. True, the weak quality of the field ( no one within ten lengths of par) coupled with his attractive morning line may increase our play but if he runs his race, he is the one to beat.

The case for the others in no particular order:

Zito/La Penta run a trio with two over the top and Cool Coal Man up against it. Nick has had real difficulty keeping weight on CCM and his best puts him behind more than a few in here. Smallish colt picks up eight pounds, J. R. and would need a new top by many.

Tale of Ekati one of three Grade I victors in here has never indicated ten panels is within his scope and could get shuffled back when the speed stops. Nice price but not for us.

A pair of roan Macho Uno's enter off solid victories. Macho Again annexed the Jim Dandy but picks up big weight and should regress. Harlem Rocker is unbeaten on dirt and has worked very well for this but takes a quantum leap in class and will be favored. We expect him to run well and always fear Coa when he is drawn outside our horses. Nevertheless one we have to beat.

"Mambo has improved a ton and his work Tuesday had Neil grinning like a cheshire cat in a mice factory but this is his graded stakes debut and he too picks up substantial poundage. Robby on board for the work, looks for his tenth Grade I in NY ( that is if he doesn't get it a half hour earlier, if not next week) and is also quietly confident. Not hopeless but no value.

Pyro may also be over the top and ten panels challenges that pedigree.

Tizbig and Tres Barrachos should both contribute to the pace but have little chance, and Court Vision is sitting on a big one but the post, poundage and surface will work to his disadvantage, although he can get a piece at a price.

The case for the Colonel:

Named for the soldier that helped when Kari Casner was killed in the 2002 Bali bombing this one was always cut out to be a good one. Sent to the very talented Harty he finished with a flourish in all four juvenile starts.

Tiznow homebred matured nicely and took the Sham in his sophomore debut with a last eighth in sub :12 before running them all down in the Santa Anita Derby again with a big late move. Shipped to Kentucky he worked a silly fast bullet six days out with fractions of :11 and 2, eleven and three, eleven flat, eleven and four and eleven and four out in ten and change!! Then in the race he was mugged at the start and bothered in the first turn before a "bold rally while very wide" before taking a bad step and losing momentum and coasting home a well beaten sixth. Dirt will be no problem off that work, race and plans call for Bossier City next.

After the Derby he was turned out, fattened up and returned to Harty who worked him every six days and entered him in the Swaps. Alas he was beat when the entries were drawn, yet ran his best race to date. In fact, on most services he has ran faster each subsequent start. Since, he has worked every six days with super sonic August 12th move while well in hand and over a second faster than the second best work. Current form; outstanding.

On pace, it is difficult to imagine the Colonel not getting a good seat with two speed horses to his outside and Gomez very familiar. Also as he has matured his tactical has improved immensely.

In conclusion, it looks good for the Colonel at bettable odds. In fact, now with Big Brown finally coming unglued maybe the Colonel takes center stage in the three year old division. A win today would go a long way indeed! BBB

First of all, nice analysis and congrats on hitting the race.

My only question is the part that i bolded. The swaps was a pretty small field going a route. How did the draw have anything to do with the outcome? To me, he just looked short.

All of that jibba jabba for a 4-1 shot? Jesustapdancingchrist will we get a reenactment of the holy bible when you tout a 10-1 or greater?

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

While races are decided over the track, as they should be, it is difficult to make a off the paper case for anyone other than Colonel John. Using generally accepted handicapping factors such as pace, class, current form etc. he towers over these.

A few will question his ability to get the distance and many more will argue he is a polytrack horse, but neither concern us. True, the weak quality of the field ( no one within ten lengths of par) coupled with his attractive morning line may increase our play but if he runs his race, he is the one to beat.

The case for the others in no particular order:

Zito/La Penta run a trio with two over the top and Cool Coal Man up against it. Nick has had real difficulty keeping weight on CCM and his best puts him behind more than a few in here. Smallish colt picks up eight pounds, J. R. and would need a new top by many.

Tale of Ekati one of three Grade I victors in here has never indicated ten panels is within his scope and could get shuffled back when the speed stops. Nice price but not for us.

A pair of roan Macho Uno's enter off solid victories. Macho Again annexed the Jim Dandy but picks up big weight and should regress. Harlem Rocker is unbeaten on dirt and has worked very well for this but takes a quantum leap in class and will be favored. We expect him to run well and always fear Coa when he is drawn outside our horses. Nevertheless one we have to beat.

"Mambo has improved a ton and his work Tuesday had Neil grinning like a cheshire cat in a mice factory but this is his graded stakes debut and he too picks up substantial poundage. Robby on board for the work, looks for his tenth Grade I in NY ( that is if he doesn't get it a half hour earlier, if not next week) and is also quietly confident. Not hopeless but no value.

Pyro may also be over the top and ten panels challenges that pedigree.

Tizbig and Tres Barrachos should both contribute to the pace but have little chance, and Court Vision is sitting on a big one but the post, poundage and surface will work to his disadvantage, although he can get a piece at a price.

The case for the Colonel:

Named for the soldier that helped when Kari Casner was killed in the 2002 Bali bombing this one was always cut out to be a good one. Sent to the very talented Harty he finished with a flourish in all four juvenile starts.

Tiznow homebred matured nicely and took the Sham in his sophomore debut with a last eighth in sub :12 before running them all down in the Santa Anita Derby again with a big late move. Shipped to Kentucky he worked a silly fast bullet six days out with fractions of :11 and 2, eleven and three, eleven flat, eleven and four and eleven and four out in ten and change!! Then in the race he was mugged at the start and bothered in the first turn before a "bold rally while very wide" before taking a bad step and losing momentum and coasting home a well beaten sixth. Dirt will be no problem off that work, race and plans call for Bossier City next.

After the Derby he was turned out, fattened up and returned to Harty who worked him every six days and entered him in the Swaps. Alas he was beat when the entries were drawn, yet ran his best race to date. In fact, on most services he has ran faster each subsequent start. Since, he has worked every six days with super sonic August 12th move while well in hand and over a second faster than the second best work. Current form; outstanding.

On pace, it is difficult to imagine the Colonel not getting a good seat with two speed horses to his outside and Gomez very familiar. Also as he has matured his tactical has improved immensely.

In conclusion, it looks good for the Colonel at bettable odds. In fact, now with Big Brown finally coming unglued maybe the Colonel takes center stage in the three year old division. A win today would go a long way indeed! BBB

Nice call.....next case please

Under a masterful ride by Garrett Gomez the Winstar homebred Colonel John got his nose down on the line to win the 140th Travers in a frantic finish.

Breaking from the two hole Colonel John hopped at the break but Gomez deftly squeezed the son of Tiznow slightly and decent position was acquired going into the first turn. As usual, the "colonel" never turned a hair as he crept closer going into the far turn between horses and behind solid splits. Without warning, Da Tara started to stop quickly with CJ right on his heels but again Gomez adroitly swung out for room losing momentum but keeping valuable track position. Four crosses and two big right handed sticks later the Colonel appeared home, but no; as here comes Robby on Mambo in Seattle and suddenly the wire looked a long way off. Literally Gomez, who is the best finisher since Pincay, in an instant, puts the stick in his left hand and tattoos twice before another series of crosses and pulls slightly with his right rein "showing" CJ the danger. Both colts hit the line and most of the 40,000 in attendance, everyone watching on Tv and even Robby thought "mambo" got there. But no! For the second consecutive year team Farish had been denied by the slimmest of margins and two wonderful training jobs by Neil and a pair of skillful rides by Robby did not get the trophy.

Dalakhani: The Swaps is run with allowance conditions and the Colonel had to carry 122 while the razor sharp (then) Tres Barrachos got in with only 112 although Tyler was one pound over. Sophomores are extremely sensitive to weight and while the Colonel was a bit short very few three year olds ever can give nine pounds over nine furlongs. Oddly, DRF publisher Steve Crist blogged that the Colonel had " a no excuse third" that day. While we maintain great respect for Mr. Crist's handicapping acumen we find "figure makers" and odd lot indeed.

Coach: This was a strong case for correctly reading the paper and yet we were lucky to win the photo. Not only did we jeopardize a solid double using Visionaire but we put a sizeable win wager in peril. Sometimes cappers talk themselves into a horse and lose their objectivity and we were sitting on this horse, in this spot, since early June. If Mambo wins we get nothing and he was clearly the danger. Competent capping seldom overcomes poor betting and this was one of those occasions. Jibba jabba runs Fridays after happy hour.

Doc: Thanx. Next case; beating Big Brown September 13 if he shows, which is plenty doubtful. BBB

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

Under a masterful ride by Garrett Gomez the Winstar homebred Colonel John got his nose down on the line to win the 140th Travers in a frantic finish.

Breaking from the two hole Colonel John hopped at the break but Gomez deftly squeezed the son of Tiznow slightly and decent position was acquired going into the first turn. As usual, the "colonel" never turned a hair as he crept closer going into the far turn between horses and behind solid splits. Without warning, Da Tara started to stop quickly with CJ right on his heels but again Gomez adroitly swung out for room losing momentum but keeping valuable track position. Four crosses and two big right handed sticks later the Colonel appeared home, but no; as here comes Robby on Mambo in Seattle and suddenly the wire looked a long way off. Literally Gomez, who is the best finisher since Pincay, in an instant, puts the stick in his left hand and tattoos twice before another series of crosses and pulls slightly with his right rein "showing" CJ the danger. Both colts hit the line and most of the 40,000 in attendance, everyone watching on Tv and even Robby thought "mambo" got there. But no! For the second consecutive year team Farish had been denied by the slimmest of margins and two wonderful training jobs by Neil and a pair of skillful rides by Robby did not get the trophy.

Dalakhani: The Swaps is run with allowance conditions and the Colonel had to carry 122 while the razor sharp (then) Tres Barrachos got in with only 112 although Tyler was one pound over. Sophomores are extremely sensitive to weight and while the Colonel was a bit short very few three year olds ever can give nine pounds over nine furlongs. Oddly, DRF publisher Steve Crist blogged that the Colonel had " a no excuse third" that day. While we maintain great respect for Mr. Crist's handicapping acumen we find "figure makers" and odd lot indeed.

Coach: This was a strong case for correctly reading the paper and yet we were lucky to win the photo. Not only did we jeopardize a solid double using Visionaire but we put a sizeable win wager in peril. Sometimes cappers talk themselves into a horse and lose their objectivity and we were sitting on this horse, in this spot, since early June. If Mambo wins we get nothing and he was clearly the danger. Competent capping seldom overcomes poor betting and this was one of those occasions. Jibba jabba runs Fridays after happy hour.

Doc: Thanx. Next case; beating Big Brown September 13 if he shows, which is plenty doubtful. BBB

thanks for the response BBB. I didnt remember that and I thought that you were referring to post position.

Again, congrats on the win.

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Oh my god.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

Under a masterful ride by Garrett Gomez the Winstar homebred Colonel John got his nose down on the line to win the 140th Travers in a frantic finish.

Breaking from the two hole Colonel John hopped at the break but Gomez deftly squeezed the son of Tiznow slightly and decent position was acquired going into the first turn. As usual, the "colonel" never turned a hair as he crept closer going into the far turn between horses and behind solid splits. Without warning, Da Tara started to stop quickly with CJ right on his heels but again Gomez adroitly swung out for room losing momentum but keeping valuable track position. Four crosses and two big right handed sticks later the Colonel appeared home, but no; as here comes Robby on Mambo in Seattle and suddenly the wire looked a long way off. Literally Gomez, who is the best finisher since Pincay, in an instant, puts the stick in his left hand and tattoos twice before another series of crosses and pulls slightly with his right rein "showing" CJ the danger. Both colts hit the line and most of the 40,000 in attendance, everyone watching on Tv and even Robby thought "mambo" got there. But no! For the second consecutive year team Farish had been denied by the slimmest of margins and two wonderful training jobs by Neil and a pair of skillful rides by Robby did not get the trophy.

Dalakhani: The Swaps is run with allowance conditions and the Colonel had to carry 122 while the razor sharp (then) Tres Barrachos got in with only 112 although Tyler was one pound over. Sophomores are extremely sensitive to weight and while the Colonel was a bit short very few three year olds ever can give nine pounds over nine furlongs. Oddly, DRF publisher Steve Crist blogged that the Colonel had " a no excuse third" that day. While we maintain great respect for Mr. Crist's handicapping acumen we find "figure makers" and odd lot indeed.

Coach: This was a strong case for correctly reading the paper and yet we were lucky to win the photo. Not only did we jeopardize a solid double using Visionaire but we put a sizeable win wager in peril. Sometimes cappers talk themselves into a horse and lose their objectivity and we were sitting on this horse, in this spot, since early June. If Mambo wins we get nothing and he was clearly the danger. Competent capping seldom overcomes poor betting and this was one of those occasions. Jibba jabba runs Fridays after happy hour.

Doc: Thanx. Next case; beating Big Brown September 13 if he shows, which is plenty doubtful. BBB

who is 'we'?

tl;dr

[ArlJim78]

next case beating Big Brown? wow, how imaginative, why didn't I think of that. whats the over/under on how many paragraphs it will take to make that case? I say 4.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

next case beating Big Brown? wow, how imaginative, why didn't I think of that. whats the over/under on how many paragraphs it will take to make that case? I say 4.

O/U's:

Paragraphs: 4.5
"We": 13o (-600)
"Seasoned 'cappers": 1.5
"our": 2.5
"temporary rail placement": 7 (turf only)

At least he mentions he got lucky. Anyone who cashed on that rodeo was.

[geeker2]

Dr. SwineSmeller ?