9/12: Belmont ($608k Triple C/O)

[Kasept]

It was one thing getting beat Wednesday at Belmont when there were signals that the races in the Pick Six were especially tricky, but Thursday looked to be different. Yesterday's sequence appeared to shape up formfully, but ended up even more treacherous than the week's opener. When there are 2nd/3rd choice type winners bringing back $9.80, $10.00 and $12.20, and then a pair of $37.00 and $43.80 surprises, hitting a sextet will invariably be close to impossible. Only Sweet Bama Breeze in the nightcap, $5.30, was an obvious "must use" type.

The stunning opportunity lost on the day was Pletcher's VINDGARI, who was the lone first timer starter in the 6th race, and was allowed to leave the gate at a bulbous $17.50-1. This 3yo Paulson Family homebred by Vindication had his younger filly sibling VENATRIX (Tapit) debut Wednesday, and much was made of this family which has already produced Geri and A.P. Arrow. Venatrix, bred far better for grass, trailed throughout in the off the turf event to finish last of eight at 7-1. Vindgari, bred far better for dirt, was utterly ignored as the 2nd longest price on the board and proceeded to wire his more experienced foes in a tremendously professional effort. That, along with Mike Hernandez' $40+ winner in the 8th, helped key a $18,400 Pick 4 (R6-9).

Today's P6 races are really fun and intriguing as Week 2 of the Belmont Fall Championship Meet continues to be wild and wooly in advance of Saturday's Graded Stakes Quartet Card. Hope you survived Thursday and can mount another bid for what should be a $2,500,000 pot in the Six today!


BELMONT PARK


POST SCRATCHES


4th: NYB-MSW, 2yo-F, 6f-IT (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2b My Magic Moment 5-2 WON
Next Best: #1 (POE) Zipolina 3-1 7th
Best Value: #3 Carnita 15-1 8th
Exotics Use: #5 Paraiba 6-1 2nd


5th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Excellent betting race and one of the races in the sequence that will prove difficult..

Most Likely: #9 Youbethecan 9-2: Fresh and back on grass after washoff.. 3rd
Best Value: #3 Trick N Skip 15-1: His '07 turf runs make him live.. 10th
Next Best: #10 Couth 8-1 8th
Super Adds: #6 Dirty Water Dog 7-2 WON; #1 Victory Sign 8-1 2nd;


6th: CLM/N1Y, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Question here revolves around what you do with Contessa's 8-5 Missle Motor. If right, he crushes these..

Most Likely: #9 Missle Motor 8-5 WON
Best Value: #3 The Zipster 10-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Come On Chas 10-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Si O No 20-1 5th


7th: ALW/S, 3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1e Rice entry 9-2
Best Value: #8 South Pacific 15-1
Next Best: #3 Austin Laviva Baby 4-1
Exotics Use: #5 Burns Up the Track 6-1


8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 DIVERSE 3-1: Day's best bet to me; Key horse.. 4th
Next Best: #10 Impressionism 5-2: Parked outside but best of rest.. WON
Best Value: #5 My Little Dragon 20-1
Super Add: #1 Roll the Di 12-1 2nd


9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 1m (Super)

Most Likely: #3 Analyze Cat 3-1
Best Value: #9 Louann's Boot 12-1
Next Best: #2 All Verses 7-2
.10 Super Adds: #11 Mr. Wenzel 8-1; #4 Court Appointment 30-1


<$250 P6 Play:

4: 1-2-3
5: 1-3-6-9-10
6: 9
7: 1-3-5-8
8: 2
9: 3-9

3x5x1x4x1x2 = 120 x $2 = $240


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-3-9
7: 1-3-5-8-9
8: 2
9: 2-3-4-9-11

3x5x1x5 = $75


Good luck!
Steve

[blackthroatedwind]

What am I missing about Zipolina other than people's fascination with taking massively underlaid odds on every horse Linda Rice runs in a turf sprint ( I understand....this saves the trouble of trying to handicap ). This horse debuted in a distance turf race, showed absolutely no speed there, and is now cutting back to six furlongs. Combine that with the fact that the horse did next to no running and please explain to me why the horse shouldn't be 15:1 here?

[the_fat_man]

Beautiful handling of this horse by Garcia last out. (And his ride on Sweet Bama Breeze yesterday should be used in a tripping instructional video.) I was probably his worst critic last year but this kid is clearly the best jock in NY right now.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Beautiful handling of this horse by Garcia last out. (And his ride on Sweet Bama Breeze yesterday should be used in a tripping instructional video.) I was probably his worst critic last year but this kid is clearly the best jock in NY right now.

I agree he's certainly in the top 3, he's made a believer out of me this year. He's hungry and he makes alot of good decisions out on the track. His ride on Visionaire on Travers day was one of the better rides I recall this year.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

What am I missing about Zipolina other than people's fascination with taking massively underlaid odds on every horse Linda Rice runs in a turf sprint ( I understand....this saves the trouble of trying to handicap ). This horse debuted in a distance turf race, showed absolutely no speed there, and is now cutting back to six furlongs. Combine that with the fact that the horse did next to no running and please explain to me why the horse shouldn't be 15:1 here?

Handicap what? What is there to "handicap" in the 4th if Albertrani has scratched the entry? There's the T2D Robbins' homebred turning back for Dutrow.. The rest is guess work with 6 firsters. Zipolina made up some ground into the slow pace last, turns back and adds blinkers. Her sib by Gulch, though a career stiff (1 for 27; 13x ITM), was relatively fast sprinting at 2. And you do get Rice's Hook and Ladder debuter with Zipolina.

What else do we have exactly? The firsters... Carnita looks OK for Levine... The 2 Prime Timbers are whatever they are, but as a sire he only gets firsters ITM <30%.. Tagg's During might be all right.. Donk slipped Spina in at SAR at 17-1 giving pause for Paraiba.. Schettino's only debuting success seems to comes at low, low prices.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Beautiful handling of this horse by Garcia last out. (And his ride on Sweet Bama Breeze yesterday should be used in a tripping instructional video.) I was probably his worst critic last year but this kid is clearly the best jock in NY right now.

agreed..

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Handicap what? What is there to "handicap" in the 4th if Albertrani has scratched the entry? There's the T2D Robbins' homebred turning back for Dutrow.. The rest is guess work with 6 firsters. Zipolina made up some ground into the slow pace last, turns back and adds blinkers. Her sib by Gulch, though a career stiff (1 for 27; 13x ITM), was relatively fast sprinting at 2. And you do get Rice's Hook and Ladder debuter with Zipolina.

What else do we have exactly? The firsters... Carnita looks OK for Levine... The 2 Prime Timbers are whatever they are, but as a sire he only gets firsters ITM <30%.. Tagg's During might be all right.. Donk slipped Spina in at SAR at 17-1 giving pause for Paraiba.. Schettino's only debuting success seems to comes at low, low prices.

agreed x 2

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by CSC

I agree he's certainly in the top 3, he's made a believer out of me this year. He's hungry and he makes alot of good decisions out on the track. His ride on Visionaire on Travers day was one of the better rides I recall this year.

I've heard this before and I still don't get it. He's on a horse who's an obvious one-run deep closer at less than a mile, and there's a six-horse duel for the lead.. Does it take a genius to realize not to send before the three-eighths pole? He also went very wide (as was his only option) and Visionaire ate up the sauteed frontrunners. What about his ride could any of the other Top 25 jocks in the country not have done?

I'm not disagreeing that the guy can ride, but I don't understand the lavish praise for this ride in particular.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I've heard this before and I still don't get it. He's on a horse who's an obvious one-run deep closer at less than a mile, and there's a six-horse duel for the lead.. Does it take a genius to realize not to send before the three-eighths pole? He also went very wide (as was his only option) and Visionaire ate up the sauteed frontrunners. What about his ride could any of the other Top 25 jocks in the country not have done?

I'm not disagreeing that the guy can ride, but I don't understand the lavish praise for this ride in particular.

Are you sure 25 other jocks could do that under the circumstances? I'm not.

It's not praise for Garcia...just complete disdain for the current jockey colony.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Are you sure 25 other jocks could do that under the circumstances? I'm not.

It's not praise for Garcia...just complete disdain for the current jockey colony.

I hear what you're saying, I'm just perplexed.

There was one way he could've possibly ridden the horse, he rode him that way, and got lucky that there was a suicidal pace duel. How does that make it one of the 'best rides of the year'?

[PSH]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

What am I missing about Zipolina other than people's fascination with taking massively underlaid odds on every horse Linda Rice runs in a turf sprint ( I understand....this saves the trouble of trying to handicap ). This horse debuted in a distance turf race, showed absolutely no speed there, and is now cutting back to six furlongs. Combine that with the fact that the horse did next to no running and please explain to me why the horse shouldn't be 15:1 here?

Agree about Zipolina but the entrymate (Hook and Ladder - Andover Square) cost $55,000 at the OBS April 2YO sale (nothing special about that) but worked out in a fairly quick 21.3 seconds under tack. However, works for debut are fairly slow also.... Anyway, i like the entrymate more than Zipolina but not enough for a single...

PSH

I like Loaves and Dishes in the opener.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I hear what you're saying, I'm just perplexed.

There was one way he could've possibly ridden the horse, he rode him that way, and got lucky that there was a suicidal pace duel. How does that make it one of the 'best rides of the year'?

I agree. He should've left it with 'Visionaire is the luckiest horse of the year'.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I've heard this before and I still don't get it. He's on a horse who's an obvious one-run deep closer at less than a mile, and there's a six-horse duel for the lead.. Does it take a genius to realize not to send before the three-eighths pole? He also went very wide (as was his only option) and Visionaire ate up the sauteed frontrunners. What about his ride could any of the other Top 25 jocks in the country not have done?

I'm not disagreeing that the guy can ride, but I don't understand the lavish praise for this ride in particular.

I understand what you are saying and I don't completely disagree, however in a day where I've witnessed so many riders making premature early moves of late, it was "pleasant" to actually see a rider get it right for a change. I don't think it's a coincidence that Visonaire is 2 for 2 in his last 2 with Garcia up, though I will be the 1st to also admit shortening up was also a major factor for this.

[TheSpyder]

Race 5: Exton...In a field with no stand outs can;t see why this one can't be there. Especially at 35/1

$5W/P

[Kasept]

5-1 on American Cruiser.. Uggh. I wasn't interested at the 7-2 ML $...