Belmont Thursday.. Terrific racing

Kasept · #1 09-17-2008, 09:38 PM

Anybody deep into tomorrow's card at BEL? I am only doing the 4th-9th, but what a fun afternoon lined up...

My own thoughts in the morning, but if anyone has specific races/horses they want to start yapping about, feel free. Some quality horseflesh and matchups tomorrow.

blackthroatedwind · #2 09-17-2008, 09:56 PM

It's an excellent card.

Cannon Shell · #3 09-17-2008, 09:58 PM

I'm an excellent driver

Heels1989 · #4 09-17-2008, 10:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I'm an excellent driver

Car? Horse? Golf Ball?

Cannon Shell · #5 09-17-2008, 10:02 PM

Rain Man

#6 09-17-2008, 10:33 PM

de-de-definitely a good card. yeahhh.

declansharbor · #7 09-17-2008, 11:11 PM

Anyone have an opinion on Rogue Victory in the 'cap??

I will be keying him in trifecta's and might play some P3's/4's around him.

He broke in the air in his second start and finished a good 2nd. He then was able to hold on for the maiden breaker in his last, through okay fractions against better. Hopefully, he can hold off Baletti and Valtrus, two other contenders IMO. Not sure what to think of D Treasure.

Having pointed him out, he'll probably scratch, just like every other horse that I look forward to betting does.

blackthroatedwind · #8 09-17-2008, 11:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by declansharbor

Anyone have an opinion on Rogue Victory in the 'cap??

I will be keying him in trifecta's and might play some P3's/4's around him.

He broke in the air in his second start and finished a good 2nd. He then was able to hold on for the maiden breaker in his last, through okay fractions against better. Hopefully, he can hold off Baletti and Valtrus, two other contenders IMO. Not sure what to think of D Treasure.

Having pointed him out, he'll probably scratch, just like every other horse that I look forward to betting does.

Well, I think he has a bit of a chance, but even though he blew the break two back he was more than compensated by getting a major pace set up. In his last, the pace was slow for the Mellon turf that day and I don't think he beat the strongest of fields.

The good news tomorrow is that he won't be part of the pace and he may have some upside. He will need it.....at least tomorrow.

On your scratch addition.....not unless something happens. I'm friendly with his owner and spoke to him yesterday about the race. They have every intention of running.

declansharbor · #9 09-17-2008, 11:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Well, I think he has a bit of a chance, but even though he blew the break two back he was more than compensated by getting a major pace set up. In his last, the pace was slow for the Mellon turf that day and I don't think he beat the strongest of fields.

The good news tomorrow is that he won't be part of the pace and he may have some upside. He will need it.....at least tomorrow.

On your scratch addition.....not unless something happens. I'm friendly with his owner and spoke to him yesterday about the race. They have every intention of running.

I was thinking that his horse was well meant, but of course, Im outside looking in. Hoping that his m/l holds up, because as you mentioned, he will be up against it tomorrow. Best of luck to the connections with this one, he has certainly caught my eye and should be a useful one down the road. I am eager to see how he fares against winners.

About the pace set up, I'm thinking he sits off of the first flight and pounces entering the turn. He will have to be all out to hold off Baletti, IMO, but my money will be on that he will.

Another one that I dont know whether to pitch or include is Frankel's charge. An awesome betting event for sure.

blackthroatedwind · #10 09-17-2008, 11:40 PM

I thought Frankel's horse ran very well last time. Of course, it was hard turf, and the turf is perfect right now, so it's a guess whether or not he was helped or hurt by the conditions. As a speed, he was probably helped, but who knows if that was what he really wanted.

Interesting race.

the_fat_man · #11 09-18-2008, 12:15 AM

I like Straight Romance. I think the horse is a natural stayer and the previous connections (including Hushion) were misguided in keeping him sprinting. I see him wiring the field and extending. Oh yeah.

#12 09-18-2008, 12:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by declansharbor

Anyone have an opinion on Rogue Victory in the 'cap??

I will be keying him in trifecta's and might play some P3's/4's around him.

He broke in the air in his second start and finished a good 2nd. He then was able to hold on for the maiden breaker in his last, through okay fractions against better. Hopefully, he can hold off Baletti and Valtrus, two other contenders IMO. Not sure what to think of D Treasure.

Having pointed him out, he'll probably scratch, just like every other horse that I look forward to betting does.

i have a huge opinion on him, hes a total play against, before his last race the horse never showed a bit of speed and prado guns him, clearly thinking he was sitting on much the best, the horse showed up and ran big that day, now prado jumps off to ride a horse thats 15-1 morning line ? explain that ? not only the jock switch bothers me, but i just rate him as not being in the top 5 in the race.... in my mind motts horse is clearly the horse to beat, i also like shug's horse, baletti and Discreet Treasure more then Rogue

#13 09-18-2008, 12:20 AM

i would also like to add, IMO this is the deepest 1x i have seen in a long time

hockey2315 · #14 09-18-2008, 12:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hrfan

i have a huge opinion on him, hes a total play against, before his last race the horse never showed a bit of speed and prado guns him, clearly thinking he was sitting on much the best, the horse showed up and ran big that day, now prado jumps off to ride a horse thats 15-1 morning line ? explain that ? not only the jock switch bothers me, but i just rate him as not being in the top 5 in the race.... in my mind motts horse is clearly the horse to beat, i also like shug's horse, baletti and Discreet Treasure more then Rogue

Your logic is pretty flawed here. . .

#15 09-18-2008, 12:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Your logic is pretty flawed here. . .

explain...
i bet him last time with edgar, me and my friend and when he gunned to the lead i was shocked, i remember saying, He must be sitting on a ton today......
but please explain

Mike · #16 09-18-2008, 12:28 AM

I'll start in the 3rd with Buddy's Holiday. I think he'll stay at the 5-1 ml

In the 5th, Ship's Piano looks good to me at 4-1.Two of his last three have been very strong for this level, the third race was a dud following an eight month layoff.
Now returns after a 5 day layoff

In the 6th, I think it's all about Ballast(5-1 ml) getting in due to the 50k claiming price condition. Interesting race, though

#17 09-18-2008, 12:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike

I'll start in the 3rd with Buddy's Holiday. I think he'll stay at the 5-1 ml

In the 5th, Ship's Piano looks good to me at 4-1.Two of his last three have been very strong for this level, the third race was a dud following an eight month layoff.
Now returns after a 5 day layoff

In the 6th, I think it's all about Ballast(5-1 ml) getting in due to the 50k claiming price condition. Interesting race, though

I cant see Buddys Humor winning in this spot....
Ships Piano looks ok, but the race is wide open, i have at least 4 horses with chances..
Ballast is a nice horse, but i rate at least 4 higher, and at this point, with him being 7 he could very well be over the top, i would be shocked and impressed if he could beat these.

#18 09-18-2008, 12:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Discreet treasure? Hasn't he burned up enough money?

he has but at a decent price tomorrow and finally getting on turf, he has to be used... especially over horses like Rouge and Frankels horse.

Mike · #19 09-18-2008, 12:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hrfan

I cant see Buddys Humor winning in this spot....
Ships Piano looks ok, but the race is wide open, i have at least 4 horses with chances..
Ballast is a nice horse, but i rate at least 4 higher, and at this point, with him being 7 he could very well be over the top, i would be shocked and impressed if he could beat these.

I'm in the midst of a losing streak. Generally, do play alot of longshots. I think I'm trying to seriously evaluate and came up with very modest picks, oddswise.

#20 09-18-2008, 12:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike

I'm in the midst of a losing streak. Generally, do play alot of longshots. I think I'm trying to seriously evaluate and came up with very modest picks, oddswise.

i can see why someone would stab with Buddys Humor or the Coa horse in the 5th, but i cant see Ballast... I think this horse is finished.