curlin is going down

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

hes gonna lose sat........

[blackthroatedwind]

Why's that Matt?

[pointman]

Hooves, I respect your opinion, but really, who is going to beat him here unless he beats himself?

Originally Posted by pointman

Hooves, I respect your opinion, but really, who is going to beat him here unless he beats himself?

mambo is pretty logical... on paper there is a ton of speed, should get a perfect setup/run

[Bobby Fischer]

unless Larry Jones' horse some how has a freakish run, an equal effort of the Woodward should be enough to beat this group.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

hes gonna lose sat........

3 races ago, I think that would be considered absurb.

From his last 2 races, I don't think many would consider it to be a major surprise if it did happen.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

1 hes looked weaker and weaker as he faced foes,,
2 the slop/mud will be taxing on him
3 mombo and some others are at the peak of their form
4 the pace should make him commit to a presser role.
5 wandring boy sets him up / merchant marine /mambo/ timber resurve take m down.............imo.........

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

1 hes looked weaker and weaker as he faced foes,,
2 the slop/mud will be taxing on him
3 mombo and some others are at the peak of their form
4 the pace should make him commit to a presser role.
5 wandring boy sets him up / merchant marine /mambo/ timber resurve take m down.............imo.........

1. His last wasn't spectacular but it still beats this field unless Wanderin Boy gets totally loose ( possible ) and speed is absolutely deadly.

2. Makes no sense....the best race he ever ran was in the slop and it's far from clear it will be sloppy or muddy.

3. Mambo has to improve dramatically to beat Curlin unless Curlin doesn't show up.

4. I guess it's possible but he will be ridden confidently, as he should be, and only a slop induced speed bias will beat him....not his riding tactics per se.

5. I don't get what you're trying to say.

I don't have the ultimate confidence in Curlin, though he's a fairly likely winner, but he's still 40% to lose ( he's around 1:2 here ) so saying he will lose is hardly going out on a limb. The question is how will you make money on the race with an anti-Curlin opinion and in my opinion there are better places, and ways, to try to make money both tomorrow and any day.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

1. His last wasn't spectacular but it still beats this field unless Wanderin Boy gets totally loose ( possible ) and speed is absolutely deadly.

2. Makes no sense....the best race he ever ran was in the slop and it's far from clear it will be sloppy or muddy.

3. Mambo has to improve dramatically to beat Curlin unless Curlin doesn't show up.

4. I guess it's possible but he will be ridden confidently, as he should be, and only a slop induced speed bias will beat him....not his riding tactics per se.

5. I don't get what you're trying to say.

I don't have the ultimate confidence in Curlin, though he's a fairly likely winner, but he's still 40% to lose ( he's around 1:2 here ) so saying he will lose is hardly going out on a limb. The question is how will you make money on the race with an anti-Curlin opinion and in my opinion there are better places, and ways, to try to make money both tomorrow and any day.

in the pick 4 and 3 ..i just think it may be muddy not sloppy and that may be his undoing....imo

[stonegossard]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

1 hes looked weaker and weaker as he faced foes,,
2 the slop/mud will be taxing on him
3 mombo and some others are at the peak of their form
4 the pace should make him commit to a presser role.
5 wandring boy sets him up / merchant marine /mambo/ timber resurve take m down.............imo.........

Congrats Hooves.


You have won the Most Moronic Post of the Year for 2008.


You have won a year subscription to your handicapping site.


Good luck with that.



#2 is hysterical. Miss The BC last year did ya?

#4 was a close 2nd to #4 in level of stupidity.


Luckily I had the 2-4 exacta...even though it only paid $4.60.

[RollerDoc]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

1. His last wasn't spectacular but it still beats this field unless Wanderin Boy gets totally loose ( possible ) and speed is absolutely deadly.

2. Makes no sense....the best race he ever ran was in the slop and it's far from clear it will be sloppy or muddy.

3. Mambo has to improve dramatically to beat Curlin unless Curlin doesn't show up.

4. I guess it's possible but he will be ridden confidently, as he should be, and only a slop induced speed bias will beat him....not his riding tactics per se.

5. I don't get what you're trying to say.

I don't have the ultimate confidence in Curlin, though he's a fairly likely winner, but he's still 40% to lose ( he's around 1:2 here ) so saying he will lose is hardly going out on a limb. The question is how will you make money on the race with an anti-Curlin opinion and in my opinion there are better places, and ways, to try to make money both tomorrow and any day.

If the bettor believes Curlin is going down, and Curlin does go down, and the bettor bet against Curlin, how is this not a good opportunity to make some money?

[pick4]

1. His last wasn't spectacular but it still beats this field unless Wanderin Boy gets totally loose ( possible ) and speed is absolutely deadly.

This scenerio is the most likely one that has Curlin losing.

While Mambo In Seattle is an improving horse I still think he has to make another huge step up to beat this field. I had a lot of wagers tied to this horse and his loss in the Travers was the most painful beat I've suffered as a horseplayer.

I thought Wanderin Boy would be the pacesetter in the Woodward but Pass The Point ran a career best race. I think Wanderin Boy will get the lead here.How much he has to work get and maintain that lead will make the difference. The only horse that I can see upsetting the scenerio I foresee is Merchant Marine. He has the early lick to make Wanderin Boy work hard early.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by stonegossard

Congrats Hooves.


You have won the Most Moronic Post of the Year for 2008.


You have won a year subscription to your handicapping site.


Good luck with that.



#2 is hysterical. Miss The BC last year did ya?

#4 was a close 2nd to #4 in level of stupidity.


Luckily I had the 2-4 exacta...even though it only paid $4.60.

ok i get the flack i just dont think hes ready to go vs some of these..and did you load up on the brass hat party the last few times...

[dalakhani]

Timber Reserve.

I agree with Hooves. I think Curlin is going down.

[stonegossard]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

ok i get the flack i just dont think hes ready to go vs some of these..and did you load up on the brass hat party the last few times...

Nah...I bet him in The Donn this year. Thats it. Threw in the towel after that. His connections have completely mismanaged him since. Hasnt he done enough ?

I cant fault you for trying to beat a favorite. But he isnt the one I would go after. Plus he moves up HUGE in the slop.

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

1 hes looked weaker and weaker as he faced foes,,
2 the slop/mud will be taxing on him
3 mombo and some others are at the peak of their form
4 the pace should make him commit to a presser role.
5 wandring boy sets him up / merchant marine /mambo/ timber resurve take m down.............imo.........

i have been saying the 5 things that you said

[stonegossard]

Originally Posted by hrfan

i have been saying the 5 things that you said

Sorry.....only one award can be given out a day.


Please repost this in 23 hrs and 21 minutes.

[letswastemoney]

Yup...he's going down to the winner's circle

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by RollerDoc

If the bettor believes Curlin is going down, and Curlin does go down, and the bettor bet against Curlin, how is this not a good opportunity to make some money?

Oh, it is a theoretical opportunity, but you still have to construct a winning play. The question is what exactly is that winning play.

[magic_idol]

All Great Horses have their knockers & when they finally loose they stand up & say I told you so !!!!.
Even after all the great wins that make a great horse