Breeders' Cup Sprint

Hwjb · #1 10-14-2008, 07:48 AM

I'm having to write a preview of the Breeders' Cup meeting and, given that my knowledge of US racing is, at present, negligible, I would greatly appreciate some help with regard the Sprint.
I've been watching some of the races on Youtube, and was impressed with the way In Summation shaped in the Bing Crosby but, on the back of that, I guess he's been a mite disappointing since. I guess we're looking for a closer, so would Abraaj perhaps get the thing run to suit? Any views on Midnight Lute's well being?

In the Turf I thought Grand Couturier looked good last time and, together with Eagle Mountain, felt he probably had a good chance against a bunch of Europeans who are likely to be over the top.

For the Classic Curlin looks to represent poor value and thought there was some sense in taking him on with Casino Drive and Well Armed.

Any views welcome on these races and any other. Thanks!

Harry.

zippyneedsawin · #2 10-14-2008, 07:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hwjb

I'm having to write a preview of the Breeders' Cup meeting and, given that my knowledge of US racing is, at present, negligible, I would greatly appreciate some help with regard the Sprint.
I've been watching some of the races on Youtube, and was impressed with the way In Summation shaped in the Bing Crosby but, on the back of that, I guess he's been a mite disappointing since. I guess we're looking for a closer, so would Abraaj perhaps get the thing run to suit? Any views on Midnight Lute's well being?

In the Turf I thought Grand Couturier looked good last time and, together with Eagle Mountain, felt he probably had a good chance against a bunch of Europeans who are likely to be over the top.

For the Classic Curlin looks to represent poor value and thought there was some sense in taking him on with Casino Drive and Well Armed.

Any views welcome on these races and any other. Thanks!

Harry.

Abraaj is out.

As it's a synthetic surface race... I feel it's very difficult to gage how horses who haven't run on it --or run much on it--(Fabulous Strike, J Be K, Desert Key) will do. I'd lean toward the horses proven over that type of surface: Street Boss, Cost of Freedom, In Summation, Fatal Bullet (watch his last race)
Midnight Lute is a total wild card with 1 race this year and coming in off a layoff.

Hwjb · #3 10-14-2008, 08:59 AM

Thanks for that.

Fatal Bullet was indeed very impressive, though it will be far more difficult to adopt similar tactics in the BC itself. Either way, I've taken him and In Summation against the field.

Any reason why Vineyard Haven can be backed at 16/1 for the Juvenile on Betfair. It's only available to a few pounds but surely it should be a much shorter price than that, no?

ELA · #4 10-14-2008, 09:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hwjb

I'm having to write a preview of the Breeders' Cup meeting and, given that my knowledge of US racing is, at present, negligible, I would greatly appreciate some help with regard the Sprint.
I've been watching some of the races on Youtube, and was impressed with the way In Summation shaped in the Bing Crosby but, on the back of that, I guess he's been a mite disappointing since. I guess we're looking for a closer, so would Abraaj perhaps get the thing run to suit? Any views on Midnight Lute's well being?

In the Turf I thought Grand Couturier looked good last time and, together with Eagle Mountain, felt he probably had a good chance against a bunch of Europeans who are likely to be over the top.

For the Classic Curlin looks to represent poor value and thought there was some sense in taking him on with Casino Drive and Well Armed.

Any views welcome on these races and any other. Thanks!

Harry.

Well Armed was going in the Mile. I don't know if Big Brown not going will cause anyone to rethink, but personally, I wouldn't think so. Same applies to Curlin if he doesn't enter.

Eric

zippyneedsawin · #5 10-14-2008, 09:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hwjb

Thanks for that.

Fatal Bullet was indeed very impressive, though it will be far more difficult to adopt similar tactics in the BC itself. Either way, I've taken him and In Summation against the field.

Any reason why Vineyard Haven can be backed at 16/1 for the Juvenile on Betfair. It's only available to a few pounds but surely it should be a much shorter price than that, no?

No. Frankel says he's not going to the BC. (as of right now)

From DRF.com:

Vineyard Haven may wait until 2009

Bobby Frankel, majority owner and trainer of Champagne winner Vineyard Haven, said he has not changed his mind about skipping the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He is, however, leaning toward not running the colt again until next year while possibly keeping him on the East Coast.

Frankel has several reasons for skipping the Juvenile. First, he and owners Joe Torre, the Los Angeles Dodgers manager, and Louis Lazzinnaro, would have to pay a $180,000 supplemental fee. Second, the race is being run over a synthetic surface. Third, the Juvenile is in three weeks.

Frankel, who has shipped several horses from New York to Southern California already, is leaving Vineyard Haven at Belmont Park while he contemplates where to run the colt as a 3-year-old.

jwkniska · #6 10-14-2008, 09:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

Midnight Lute is a total wild card with 1 race this year and coming in off a layoff.

check out the work yesterday.... 5F in 56.80

also note that price horses do well in the sprint too.

smuthg · #7 10-14-2008, 09:38 AM

Keep an eye on Black Seventeen... Big performance at Belmont and bullet work on the Pro-Ride...

Linny · #8 10-14-2008, 09:46 AM

Grand Couturier generally prefers softer going than he'll get at SA. Vineyard Haven is 100-1 to even start.

CSC · #9 10-14-2008, 11:48 AM

The one thing I like about Fatal Bullet is he has constantly run faster as the season progressed, and while his last race was impressive there may still be an upside to him.

zippyneedsawin · #10 10-14-2008, 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jwkniska

check out the work yesterday.... 5F in 56.80

also note that price horses do well in the sprint too.

I know he's been working out real well.. but the fact that he's raced once in a year puts him up against it in this spot.
and I doubt you get a price on him anyway. If anything, he'll probably be an underlay.

Linny · #11 10-14-2008, 08:10 PM

Lute worked like a shot before his one race this year and he finished...uh...did he finish. He was dreadful.

ELA · #12 10-14-2008, 08:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Linny

Lute worked like a shot before his one race this year and he finished...uh...did he finish. He was dreadful.

He got hurt again during the race.

Eric

jpops757 · #13 10-14-2008, 11:45 PM

Sing Baby Sing interest me. Was running against Euroears early in the year and was competative. SBS appears to be rounding into form and will be a big price. If Euroears was fit he would probably be one of the top entrys in either the dirtmile or sprint ,

letswastemoney · #14 10-15-2008, 12:00 AM

I doubt you can win the Sprint off of one race. Midnight Lute's best days are over.

dalakhani · #15 10-15-2008, 12:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jwkniska

check out the work yesterday.... 5F in 56.80

also note that price horses do well in the sprint too.

??? you think midnight lute would be a price under any circumstance? ???

lostcode · #16 10-15-2008, 12:51 AM

I'm not playing him, but he does work like a monster. And Go back and look at what Gilded Time did off a year lay off in the sprint.

#17 10-15-2008, 01:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani

??? you think midnight lute would be a price under any circumstance? ???

i think "for him" it will be a price.
Street Boss will be bet heavily as well as Fabolous Strike and even Fatal Bullet, you should get 3-1 or 7-2 on Midnight Lute, and IMO thats a good price.

AeWingnut · #18 10-15-2008, 06:57 AM

I have no idea about the horses entered, that being said - The one thing I have learned is that you don't play horses that have been winning at 7 furlongs.

AeWingnut · #19 10-15-2008, 07:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

I doubt you can win the Sprint off of one race. Midnight Lute's best days are over.

My first thought is that horses that have been running all year don't do squat. The layoff horse is the way to go. Not endorsing anyone just looking at the history of the race.

Linny · #20 10-15-2008, 10:00 AM

What horse in the last 10 years of the BCSprint had not been "running all year" apart from Lute which had a strange season and went from the Forego to the Sprint? I don't recall the "fresh horse" winning. Nowadays the horse coming off 6 weeks or even 8 weeks is no longer considered a "layoff horse."