10/19: Belmont ($394k C/O)

Kasept · #1 10-19-2008, 09:34 AM

NYB Showcase Day was its' usual wild self Saturday as $153.00 winner started the P6 with more pricey winners to follow... Spent most of the afternoon and night flying to Los Angeles after watching the Galluscio winner just keep going, which allowed for time to tackle today's sextet.

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 7f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Note Ritvo 2b drawing in... Dropping #5 Nan (9-2) from P6.

Best Value: #2e Ritvo entry 15-1 WON/8th
Most Likely: #3 Debbie H 3-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Gold d'Oro 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Miss World 8-1 4th

6th: NYB-MSW, 2yo-F, 6f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Apple Grove 3-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Miss Stilleto 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 (POE) My Only One 6-1 10th
Exotics Use: #3 Justify 12-1 6th

7th: S/ALW, 3+, 7f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 EXCELLENT SOLDIER 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #10 Manuel R 15-1 9th
Next Best: #1 Call Tiger 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 King Carter 3-1 6th

8th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 9f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Swift Strike 7-2 6th
Best Value: #7 Trippin Up 8-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Paisano Creek3-1 8th

9th: The Vivano, F&M-3+, 7f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Thunders Dove 2-1 WON
Best Value: #4 Dicey Girl 5-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Over Forli 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Windy 8-1 8th

10th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (Super)

Most Likely: #7 Tobruk 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Sammy's Toy 20-1 6th
Next Best: #12 Prime Obsession 8-1 WON
Exotics Use: #3 Dirty Water Dog 3-1

<$200 P6 Play:

5: 2-3-4-7
6: 5-7
7: 6
8: 2-5
9: 2-4
10: 5-7-12

4x2x1x2x2x3 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 6-10
8: 2-5-7
9: 2-4
10: 3-5-7-12

2x3x2x4 = $48

Good luck!
Steve

Kasept · #2 10-19-2008, 11:25 AM

http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/BEL-changes.asp

No major SCR's..

blackthroatedwind · #3 10-19-2008, 11:37 AM

Some pretty dangerous horses got in off the AEs.

Handicappy · #4 10-19-2008, 02:33 PM

5th - 2,3

6th - 7,9

7th - 1,6 darn, second and third.

8th - 2,5

9th - 2

10th - 3

$32

Very, Very tough sequence with horses that are very comparable to one another.
Good Luck

trifecta124 · #5 10-19-2008, 03:21 PM

Late $1 pick 3 at Belmont

8th: 1,2,5
9th: 4,6
10th: 9,10

pointman · #6 10-19-2008, 03:51 PM

Stab at a late pk4:

7- 3,5,6,7
8- 1,2,5,9
9- 2,5,6
10- 3,7,8

Good Luck!

Handicappy · #7 10-19-2008, 04:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pointman

Stab at a late pk4:

7- 3,5,6,7
8- 1,2,5,9
9- 2,5,6
10- 3,7,8

Good Luck!

Nice job with the 7 in the 7th.

Handicappy · #8 10-19-2008, 04:40 PM

8th - 2, 5

9th - 2, 4

10th - 3, 7

Good luck to all but especially to me.

pointman · #9 10-19-2008, 05:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Handicappy

Nice job with the 7 in the 7th.

Thanks, Cap. Unfortunately, I did not see that 3 coming in the 8th. I knew this would be a tough sequence, and I liked the 1 and 9 and the prices I was getting, but I don't know how you come up with that 3. Have to think that a carryover is all but certain at this point.

While Thunder's Dove is capable here, I like Boca Grande at 4-1 and Over Forli at 6-1 here.

Handicappy · #10 10-19-2008, 05:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pointman

Thanks, Cap. Unfortunately, I did not see that 3 coming in the 8th. I knew this would be a tough sequence, and I liked the 1 and 9 and the prices I was getting, but I don't know how you come up with that 3. Have to think that a carryover is all but certain at this point.

While Thunder's Dove is capable here, I like Boca Grande at 4-1 and Over Forli at 6-1 here.

The only time I saw the 3 was at the finish. Oh well. Very tough and a huge carryover Wednesday I assume.

pointman · #11 10-19-2008, 05:36 PM

Wow, only one ticket alive to the 3 in the pk6 at a willpay of $1,019,000! All others carry. Frankly, I see the 3 as the most likely winner.

Handicappy · #12 10-19-2008, 05:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pointman

Wow, only one ticket alive to the 3 in the pk6 at a willpay of $1,019,000! All others carry. Frankly, I see the 3 as the most likely winner.

I am rooting for the 7 to at least pull a $30 double x 4 out of this mess. I'd be a wreck now if I had the one ticket.

pointman · #13 10-19-2008, 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Handicappy

I am rooting for the 7 to at least pull a $30 double x 4 out of this mess. I'd be a wreck now if I had the one ticket.

Good Luck Cap, think the 7 and 8 are the logical alternatives to beat the 3. I also think the 2 is a bit overlayed at 19-1 and have a chance here.

hoovesupsideyourhead · #14 10-19-2008, 05:44 PM

odds coa has a rough trip oops..1-9 in the last..poor bastard sitting on 1 mill with 8/5 shot clutching hart..

hoovesupsideyourhead · #15 10-19-2008, 05:51 PM

lol..

GPK · #16 10-19-2008, 05:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

odds coa has a rough trip oops..1-9 in the last..poor bastard sitting on 1 mill with 8/5 shot clutching hart..

Gonna have to watch the head-on replay of that one...to see if Coa was really squeezed at the start.

GPK · #17 10-19-2008, 05:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

lol..

Coa grabbed him AWFULY quick right out of the gate. I had no dog in this fight and I am generally the last to think something fishy is going on...but I will be very interested in the head on.

hoovesupsideyourhead · #18 10-19-2008, 06:00 PM

im shocked..

Handicappy · #19 10-19-2008, 06:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK

Coa grabbed him AWFULY quick right out of the gate. I had no dog in this fight and I am generally the last to think something fishy is going on...but I will be very interested in the head on.

the horse just seemed to break slow. I don't think he was squeezed. But I hate to rain on Hooves parade here. I was wrong. I think he did break a step slow but did get squeezed. Coa really tugged on him and that was the race. So now, hooves, im shocked.....

philcski · #20 10-19-2008, 06:15 PM

I wouldn't think it possible but Wednesday's card looks even tougher than today.