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#1
12-29-2008, 10:43 PM
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Tampa 12/30 Opinions needed
Bigs, KGB, RBE...
Any help would be appreciated as it's well known the grip that you guys stranglehold this particular track with. Two horses that I'm looking at playing at odds and including in the late 4 tomorrow are Clermont in the 8th and Osterville in the 9th. Am I crazy for even considering either of them? Clermont's last over the TB strip wasn't all too bad, albeit slow. His last at Da Mountain was downright pathetic, but something tells me he went amiss in that race. Could be the fact that he gave way midway through or the layoff afterwards that drew me to that conclusion.  He seemed to have a good amount of early footing before taking some time off. Should I give him one off the shelf and not play/include?Not even sure what to think of Osterville in the 9th. The odds may be too high to pass up on a flier on that one, not sure what to make of his Meadowlands attempt. I am definitely playing Perfect Bull on the stretch out if the price is right and am including in the P4. Your thoughts are greatly appreciated and it seems like when I construct a ticket and I don't include a horse that you guys have, I always give it another look. Keep up the good work fellas. I'm sure I speak for the board when saying thanks for all the work that you guys put into it.
__________________
"A person who saw no important difference between the fire outside a Neandrathal's cave and a working thermo-nuclear reactor might tell you that junk bonds and derivatives BOTH serve to energize capital" - Nathan Israel Last edited by declansharbor : 12-29-2008 at 11:10 PM. 
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#3
12-29-2008, 11:14 PM
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Hope you don't mind if I chime in..
I don't like Clermont a whole lot, just because he's yet to run a race fast enough to win this, though he's been close, and I don't see a reason to think he's ready for a breakthrough. With that being said, if there's a race tomorrow to take a flier in, it's the eighth. Just about every one of the top figure horses has a knock and Clermont did run a decent polytrack race two back. He's a C in my multi-race tickets. In the ninth, it's hard for me to get past Allie's Event. I know it was just one race, but his turf start was so much better than anything these horses appear capable of. Osterville has good turf breeding (Alke is 3-for-13 w/turf horses and 2-for-10 with turf debuters), but IMO he's also bred to be a sprinter with the Concorde's Tune influence, and he collapsed in his only two-turn start. Also, while it's tough to predict pace scenario with a bunch of first-time turfers, there appears to be a good amount of speed signed on. This Is My Game worries me a bit, since his turf race was decent and he's been working quickly and steadily since for Proctor, but Allie's Event is a single for me. GL declan.
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#4
12-29-2008, 11:20 PM
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I shouldnt have limited it to the TB guys. You and Tom are SHARP players as well, and its always good to have fresh eyes and different takes on a race to mull over. I always look forward to your input. GL to you as well.
and I laughed a good bit over your Yahoo pool for next year. Good stuff.
__________________
"A person who saw no important difference between the fire outside a Neandrathal's cave and a working thermo-nuclear reactor might tell you that junk bonds and derivatives BOTH serve to energize capital" - Nathan Israel
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#5
12-29-2008, 11:26 PM
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Bigs would have a better feel on Clermont than I would. This horses last two works have been down on the Napier farm and Bigs will have more knowledge than myself about that. I do know one horse that doesn't appear very playable on paper, but is very dangerous in this race is Thunder Rising. Her numbers aren't reflecting it this year, but Artz is VERY DANGEROUS with this type....and Calder shippers have been running very well this meet, even the ones taking class hikes. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see this horse win tomorrow...or fill out the bottom of a very nice exacta.
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#6
12-29-2008, 11:43 PM
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Im with Joe on the 9th...its hard to get past Allies Event if she runs back to her last two. The alternative that intrigues me in this race is Atlantic Venture. Back to turf and around two turns for the first time should suit this one fairly well...and I think Cotto is very capable on the grass.
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#7
12-30-2008, 12:25 AM
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#8
12-30-2008, 06:05 AM
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My first opinion on this P4 sequence is that it is by far the most difficult one of the meet. I have struggled with it and still don't have final opinions. I'm half-assed hoping for a scratch or two to help me make up my mind. That said, it'll probably go chalk-chalk-chalk-chalk and pay $40.
Clermont is an include on my ticket. I don't think there was a problem with the Mnr race other than the mud (my opinion, nothing to back that up). I am looking at that race as a toss and if he is healthy, he fits. His one Tampa dirt try was a second place run at this level and distance. That says a lot to me. Shirly Girten has been respectable over the years, but Luis Gonzalez signing on was the cherry on top. I'm not real familiar with the training track he's been working on, but I don't mind seeing slow works on the farm. Rarely do you see anything quick away from Tampa (unless it is on the OTC rubber), there is no reason to tip your hand when you are away from prying eyes. Kev, I did not include Thunder Rising and I looked at that one a long time. Artz was deadly early in the meet last year, but her first two starters this year did not show much. I had to stop adding somewhere, but I wouldn't be shocked if this one rode the rail to victory. Right now, I am 3,4,7,8,9 in this race. I think the speed will destroy the 9th race. The 1,3,5,8,9,10 all are either speedy types or stretching out from sprints that they showed speed in. Two or more bound to get after it and destoy their chances as well as the others that may have difficulty rating. That sets it up for Allie's Event to rally. The only reason I am not going to single is Mr. De La Cruz, he has shown me nothing so far. The first thing I normally do with a race is find the horses that have no shot. I couldn't find one here. I can make a case for every horse, so if you like who you like, go ahead and include. The 10th race is so bad, you have to include the 3 - Whatdoesladdiewant and the 12 - Igonewild on your ticket. Both are by decent 1st time out sires. Neither trainer is very good with firsters, but if either one has an ounce of talent, they can beat these. My ticket so far..... 2,4 3,4,7,8,9 2,5 (still undecided here) 2,3,6,12 I shoud be available the rest of the morning if anyone has any specific questions. I hope this helps Declan.
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#9
12-30-2008, 09:05 AM
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My 2 cents on the 9th
Thanks for opening this up. It's fun to see everyones opinion on a race and exchange ideas.
As Bigs said, alot of speed here and begs the question why so many are turning to turf routes when they have made their short career going shorter. Either the trainer/jockey has seen something or they are desperate. Allie's Event is obvious and could win but will most likely not be good value. For me, Pampered King ought to be just as good if not better but it bothers me that Motion has had three runners and none have hit the board. That leaves me with This Is My Game who has been working out super since coming South. With a 30%+ jocket/trainer combination I think you'll get 3/1 or better. For a long shot at one of the sprinters, I'd take #1 Scottish Mystery. The only horse to have a trip over the Tampa surface even though it was dirt, I like the lat rce a little. I see it 5-1-7-2
__________________
Don't sweat the petty things and don't pet the sweaty things.
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#10
12-30-2008, 10:21 AM
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#11
12-30-2008, 10:36 AM
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This horse is more than capable. She just has to have him ready and she has shown in the past that she can do that.
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#12
12-30-2008, 11:26 AM
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$96 dollar play
$1 1,2,4/3,7,8,10/2,5,6,7/3,12 good luck to all.... liked atlantic venture but scratched...
__________________
I feel sorry for people who don't drink. They wake up in the morning and that's the best they are going to feel all day. Frank Sinatra
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#13
12-30-2008, 11:40 AM
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8th race: #2 Hello from Heaven
I don't see anyone picking this one, but if live could take these. A developing 3YO started his career on fire running second to Halo Najib (sp?). Yes, the horse loves to come in second. But, a six month rest and recovery from something that kept him off the track, 3 works at TB, and a trainer that's 22% and +ROI for layoffs and 25% first with trainer makes me think this one is ready and able to take these. Need some improvement, but if it's there, this one may take it all. Spyder
__________________
Don't sweat the petty things and don't pet the sweaty things.
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#14
12-30-2008, 11:43 AM
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Tuesday, December 30, 2008
TRACK: Fast TURF: Firm Portable Rail: at 22 feet Weather: Sunny � low 70�s Super High 5 CARRYOVER: $2,537.52 Pick 6 CARRYOVER: $0 RACE 1 #1-jockey S. Jimenez #4-+2 #6-Scratched(Kinfolk Moonshine) #9-Scratched(Unbridled�s Cat) Post Time 12:35 RACE 2 #10-+1 Post Time 1:02 RACE 3 #2-Scratched(Make It Last) #5-jockey Carlos Cruz #9-+2 Post Time 1:29 RACE 4 #3-jockey D. Centeno #7-jockey Carlos Cruz Post Time 1:56 RACE 5 (Turf) #3-Scratched(L D�s Galaxy) #6-+2 Post Time 2:23 RACE 6 No Changes Post Time 2:50 RACE 7 #3-Scratched(Enlighten) #7-+1 Post Time 3:17 RACE 8 #3-+1 #7-+2 #8-+2 #11-Scratched(Dashing Pirate) Post Time 3:44 RACE 9 (Turf) #9-Scratched(Atlantic Venture) Post Time 4:11 RACE 10 #4-Scratched(Havana Max) #5-Scratched(Star Night) #6-jockey L. Gonzalez � CW 120 Post Time 4:38
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#15
12-30-2008, 12:18 PM
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Some Plays
Work is about to get busy for me so here goes:
Race 1 - DD 1 - 10, 11 2 - 3,6,10 Race 2 - P3 2 - 3,6,10 3 - 3,4,9 4 - 5,6,8 paid $173.50 Race 4 - P3 4 - 5,6,8 5 - 2,6,10 6 - 5,6,8 paid $144.40 Good luck to all today. Last edited by Bigsmc : 12-30-2008 at 03:01 PM.
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#17
12-30-2008, 01:04 PM
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race 2 tri key 10 over the 7/4/3
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#18
12-30-2008, 01:10 PM
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GL to everyone playing!!! Here's what I came up with, hoping that Ritchey's Vocalize can get us past leg A. I am headed to the Cherry Hill mall for returns so calling it in now. Shouldnt take me long as i'm a bing, bang, boom shopper.
2,4 // 3,5,7,8,9 // 2,5,6 // 2,6...Winner, winner, canned chicken dinner...$95.50 1,2 // 3,7,8 // 2,3,6,8 // 6,8 R8 $5 ex. box 8 with 3,7 $128 total...Way more than I would like to spend on a tuesday, but with a freshly recharged phonebet account, I feel that this'll get it done.
__________________
"A person who saw no important difference between the fire outside a Neandrathal's cave and a working thermo-nuclear reactor might tell you that junk bonds and derivatives BOTH serve to energize capital" - Nathan Israel Last edited by declansharbor : 12-30-2008 at 04:59 PM.
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#19
12-30-2008, 01:28 PM
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50 place 6 winterello
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#20
12-30-2008, 01:34 PM
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this PK4 sequence is literally making me angry, like punch my monitor angry b/c its damn near impossible to trim down my ticket, and i see ZERO singles here  ** i mean seriously, how can you single ritchey's horse in the first (which i thought would be ideal)? off since march w/ 3 works since then. **8th) fading the #7 groovy kid: i think this race is wide open and the horse doesn't offer any value. Also, centino hops off for another mount, and isn't there some kind of awful stat out there for people who claim off Bruce Levine **9th) fading Tommy Proctor and the #5 This Is My Game: 2 tries on the turf, nothing impressive. First race on the grass he had an excuse w/trouble, 2nd race was against the chalk in this one Allie's Event and was beaten sound. i don't even want to look at the 10th -bt-
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