134th New Zealand Derby - Feb 29, 2009

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I know it's still more than 3 weeks away, but it's starting to get pretty exciting now so why not start early?

NEW ZEALAND DERBY
Ellerslie, Auckland, NZ
G1
2400m (mile and a half)

The Derby is New Zealand's richest (NZ$2.2 million - about US $1.0-1.2 million) and most prestigious race, and has been won by many of our greatest ever racehorses - including Desert Gold, Gloaming, Kindergarten, Mainbrace, Dalray, Sobig, Balmerino, Uncle Remus, Bonecrusher, Tidal Light, Castletown, The Phantom Chance, Zonda and Xcellent.

We've had a couple of disappointing 3yo crops lately, but last year's was great - the winner C'est La Guerre and Nom du Jeu, Red Ruler, Fritzy Boy and Prince Kaapstad have all performed well at G1 level this season as older horses.

This year's 3yo crop looks very good to me at this point as well.

ORDER OF ENTRY, Feb 4 2009 (done by earnings)
Tell A Tale
Alagant Satin
Le Baron
Juice
Coniston Bluebird (AUS)
Skirmish
Moveovr
The Meista
Spontaneous
Court Ruler
My Scotsgrey
Easy Ryder
Takeanotherchance
Down The Road
Izonit
I Robot
The Spaniard
Sufficient

All of those are safely in the field. The others still hoping to get in:
Jungle Boots
Heza Karma Kazi
Fears Nothing
Late Addition
Gallant
Carchelo
Quinta De Lago
Diamond Glitter
Brunel
Sun Ruler

Jungle Boots is running in a non-stakes race this Saturday that he should win, which would put him into the 18.

Alagant Satin and Juice are fillies, who I think will go to the Oaks instead of the Derby. They run in a G2 fillies race this Saturday.

MY TOP 5 (at the moment, subject to change)

Tell A Tale - Proved himself to be the best 3yo in the country earlier in the season with four stakes wins in a row, including the G1 2000 Guineas. Distance is the only concern.

Le Baron - Undefeated beyond a mile, with two stakes wins on the Derby track.

Jungle Boots - So much potential, but a bit of a nutcase. If he hasn't grown up by Derby day, he'll lose it in front of the crowd.

Gallant - I really like this horse. He's running in a G2 next week, probably needs to win or be 2nd to get enough money to make the Derby field. I think he can.

Easy Ryder - It was a 20-1 upset when he won one of the main prep races last weekend, but he did it very stylishly, and he's trained by 4-time Derby winner Roger James.

Since university doesn't start again until 2 days after the Derby, I have nothing to do until then. So I'll do one post for each horse, at about one post per day (or just a bit faster to squeeze in the 28 in 24 days).

EDIT: Oops, typo in the title. It's the 28th, obviously.

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TELL A TALE
Gelding
Tale of the Cat - Cheeky Veronika

Trainer: Mark Walker (the Todd Pletcher of NZ - dominant trainer for the last 5 years but no Derby wins yet!)

Starts: 10
1st: 5
2nd: 1
3rd: 1
Earnings: $772,200

1st 2000 Guineas (G1)
1st Hawke's Bay Guineas (G2)
1st Avondale Guineas (G2)
1st Canterbury Stakes


Tell A Tale (outside) during his amazing run from near last to win the 2000 Guineas

Videos:
2000 Guineas: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h2mS1qm-p6E
Hawke's Bay Guineas: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_VeBacVVcI
Avondale Guineas: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDkp6M5R320

Route to the Derby:
His last start before the Derby will be this Saturday in the G1 International Stakes, against older horses. Champion jockey Michael Walker will ride.

Derby Futures: 6-1 (3rd fav)

PROS:
- Amazing winning sequence in the spring
- Performances so impressive that many consider him one of the best 3yos in the last decade

CONS:
- Lacked the same finish in his last two starts - 5th in G1 Zabeel Classic against older horses in his first start over a mile (possible excuse - wide trip, ridiculously slow pace (2:06 for the mile and a quarter), then 4th resuming over a mile. Is he tiring?
- No horse has won the 2000 Guineas-Derby double since 1990. Very hard to do.
- Tale of the Cat, mile and a half?

[my miss storm cat]

Thanks for all the info, ed. I'm familiar with Tell a Tale (thanks to your past posts and replays)... Sufficient though - tell me about that one cause I seem to remember liking that one but am not quite awake.

[_ed_]

Ok, I'll do him next!

SUFFICIENT
Colt
Zabeel - Fleur De Chine

Trainer: Bruce Wallace

Starts: 7
1st: 2
2nd: 2
3rd: 0
Earnings: $60,591

1st Champagne Stakes


Sufficient making a winning start to his Derby campaign, at Ellerslie last month.

Videos:
Champagne Stakes: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=un45IOdESm0

Route to the Derby:
Championship Stakes at Ellerslie, Feb 14.

Derby Futures: 7-1 (4th fav)

PROS:
- 2 wins at Ellerslie, including Champagne Stakes over 1m as a 2yo
- By Zabeel! He has sired 3 Derby winners - Zonda, Helene Vitality, St Reims

CONS:
- 2yo earnings don't count. He is 18th at the moment, but if he doesn't run well in the Championship Stakes others could push him out of the field.

[my miss storm cat]

Thanks ed! You're the best!!!

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LE BARON
Gelding
Zabeel - Dame Mapperley

Trainer: Donna, Dean Logan & Chris Gibbs

Starts: 7
1st: 3
2nd: 1
3rd: 2
Earnings: $134,015

1st Great Northern Guineas (G2)
1st Guineas Prelude


Le Baron (outside - blue, black and green) surging to the lead from the back of the field in the Great Northern Guineas at Ellerslie on Boxing Day.

Videos:
Great Northern Guineas: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v0E9250t9mQ

Route to the Derby:
Championship Stakes at Ellerslie, Feb 14.

Derby Futures: 5-1 (fav)

PROS:
- Undefeated in 2 starts beyond a mile
- Loads of stamina in the pedigree
- 2 stakes wins at Ellerslie, which is of course where the Derby is

CONS:
- Only 8th, without excuses, in his resuming run on January 25th. It was only over a mile, but he should have done better than that.

[my miss storm cat]

Oh my God, ed... this is so cool. Thanks for all the time you're putting into this.

[_ed_]

Updates:
- Jungle Boots won easily today, he's in the top 18 on earnings now
- Sun Ruler only 3rd at Avondale yesterday - unlikely to make the field
- Tell A Tale was heroic today, 2nd in a G1 against older horses and suffering an injury in the race. Possible stress fracture. Hope he's ok.

Anyway, on to Easy Ryder.

EASY RYDER
Gelding
Brilliance - Ledahead

Starts: 4
1st: 2
2nd: 1
3rd: 0
Earnings: $52,935

1st Waikato Guineas (G3)


Winning the Waikato Guineas.

Videos:
Waikato Guineas - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPverN-DjFI

Random Fact:
He was sold for $500 as a yearling!

Route to the Derby:
Probably straight to the Derby without another race.

Derby Futures: 9-1 (5th fav)

PROS:
- Strong win over 2000m in the Waikato Guineas.
- Distance should be no problem

CONS:
- Never raced at Ellerslie, or at any clockwise track.
- Stable rates Jungle Boots higher.

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JUNGLE BOOTS
Gelding
Jungle Pocket - Special Jade

Starts: 5
1st: 3
2nd: 1
3rd: 0
Earnings: $45,662

2nd Guineas Prelude

Route to the Derby:
No more starts before Derby

Derby futures: 5-1 (equal fav)

PROS:
- Amazing turn of foot
- Distance should be fine

CONS:
- Hasn't really faced top company yet
- Does so much wrong - in his win yesterday he was looking at people in the stands all the way. He can't do that in the Derby and win.

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GALLANT
Gelding
Volksraad - Limerick

Starts: 3
1st: 2
2nd: 0
3rd: 0
Earnings: $15,625

Route to the Derby:
Championship Stakes at Ellerslie, Feb 14

Derby futures: 9-1 (5th fav)

PROS:
- Looks super talented
- Pedigree packed with stamina

CONS:
- Hasn't faced any really good horses yet
- Needs to run well in the Championship Stakes to make the Derby field.

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Update on Tell A Tale: Only a minor muscle tweak, he's still going to the Derby.

Anyway...

THE MEISTA
Gelding
Montjeu - Zablinka

Starts: 9
1st: 3
2nd: 3
3rd: 1
Earnings: $64,900

2nd Waikato Guineas (G3)
3rd Wellington Stakes (G3)

Route to the Derby:
Championship Stakes at Ellerslie, Feb 14

Derby futures: 10-1 (7th fav)

PROS:
- Great turn of foot
- Amazing stamina-filled pedigree (Montjeu, Zabeel mare)
- Proven against top horses

CONS:
- Never raced clockwise before.

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COURT RULER
Gelding
Viking Ruler - Free Court

Starts: 9
1st: 2
2nd: 0
3rd: 3
Earnings: $67,350


Court Ruler in his 28-1 upset win against older horses in the G3 Trentham Stakes.

Videos:
Trentham Stakes - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-a0BFLtGa6U

PROS:
Stakes winner over Derby distance.

CONS:
- Questionable field.
- Very poor form prior.

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MY SCOTSGREY
Gelding
Golan - My Chameleon

Starts: 5
1st: 1
2nd: 1
3rd: 1
Earnings: $60,220

PROS:
- No problem with distance
- Competed well in Victoria in the spring

CONS:
- The VRC Derby, in my opinion, takes a lot out of horses and you don't see much more of them in their 3yo seasons afterwards. Having to run another Derby just a few months later is a huge ask.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by _ed_

Update on Tell A Tale: Only a minor muscle tweak, he's still going to the Derby.

Does this worry you?

[_ed_]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

Does this worry you?

It does, a bit. Mark Walker looks after his horses really well, so the horse must be 100% fine now if he's going ahead. But he has missed some work, which could be a big deal for a race like the Derby.

Another update, the Championship Stakes today: Down The Road (who will be the next horse profile thing, I'll do that soon) 1st, The Meista 2nd, Coniston Bluebird 3rd.

Le Baron was 6th, My Scotsgrey 7th, Gallant 9th, Court Ruler 10th.

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DOWN THE ROAD
Gelding
Danroad - Dixies Girl

Starts: 8
1st: 3
2nd: 1
3rd: 1
Earnings: $107,928

1st Championship Stakes (G2)
2nd Great Northern Guineas (G2)


Down The Road winning the Championship Stakes today.

Videos:
Championship Stakes - http://www.ellerslie.co.nz/show.cfm?...4/Race%207.swf

PROS:
- Consistent
- 3 starts at Ellerslie for a stakes win, a stakes 2nd and a 3rd.

CONS:
- Not sure if he has the acceleration of Jungle Boots, Tell A Tale, Le Baron, etc.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by _ed_

MY TOP 5 (at the moment, subject to change)
.

I was wondering your (present) Top 5...

[_ed_]

Ooh, ok. Hmm.

Jungle Boots
Le Baron
The Meista (2nd in the G2 at Ellerslie today, so showed he could run clockwise. That was my only doubt about him.)
Easy Ryder
Late Addition (Very nice win on the undercard today.)

Sufficient would probably be in my 5 if he gets in to the field. He's 20th at the moment, so either needs to win another race or have 2 horses above him (there are 2 fillies there that will probably go to the Oaks instead, so it could happen).

I really want to see Tell A Tale win, but I'm not sure he'll be back at full fitness in time.

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LATE ADDITION
Gelding
Traditionally - Tralae

Starts: 9
1st: 2
2nd: 2
3rd: 2
Earnings: $33,710

3rd Guineas Prelude
4th Great Northern Guineas (G2)

PROS:
- Consistent
- No doubt about his stamina

CONS:
- Looked a bit one-paced in his 3rd and 4th against the really good 3yos. Did show some acceleration in his undercard win yesterday though.
- 19th on the order of entry.

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Updated order of entry...

Tell A Tale
Le Baron
Juice
Down The Road
Coniston Bluebird
The Meista
Moveovr
Spontaneous
Court Ruler
My Scotsgrey
Easy Ryder
Jungle Boots
Izonit
I Robot
The Spaniard
Late Addition
Sufficient
Heza Karma Kazi
-----------
Fears Nothing
Gallant
Carchelo
Diamond Glitter
Brunel
Sun Ruler