Haskin's piece from today ...

[The Indomitable DrugS]

It's a long equine name dropping piece about 3yo's that were excluded from the 23 horses selected in the Derby future wager betting field.

Here's a quote ...

The reason they are up in arms over the decision-making is that they feel several of those chosen are less -- or at least no more -- worthy of inclusion than they are.

They came to the sad conclusion that all one had to do to be considered a Derby contender was to run an outrageously fast Beyer speed figure going six furlongs or shorter, which many handicappers feel may be more of a negative than a positive.

When selecting the 23 horses for this bet ... I would seriously hope the only thing taken into consideration would be 'how much money might this horse take from the betting public?'

That is why horses like This One's For Phil, Notonthesamepage, and Silver City obviously deserve to be included ... while a horse like a Terrain probably doesn't.

About Terrain - he writes -

How could he be excluded after his 2-year-old accomplishments; also back in training.

Terrain was 5th beaten 12.5 lengths in the Delta Downs Jackpot in his most recent start. That race came after 3 synthetic track Graded Stakes defeats in which he basically picked off the tried horses - but never threatened the winner at any point. Without a start in '09 - that horse simply isn't taking much money.

I agree with some of his points about the morning line ... but I really cringe everytime I see anything that suggests "overall accomplishments" should dictate the horses selected.

After Big Brown won that allowance race that was rained off of the turf in his comeback last year .. of course you had hundreds of 3yos more accomplished .. but obviously Big Brown was going to take more money in a future bet than almost all of them.

It's pretty amazing that they can put together a future exacta wager .. but you're still only limited to 23 individual selections.

[blackthroatedwind]

Terrain?

He shouldn't be in the top 25 for a future bet on November's Discovery.

[dagulla]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Terrain?

He shouldn't be in the top 25 for a future bet on November's Discovery.

Some of the horses on the current list were very unrealistic... the KM horse, Taquarb over the over KM horse Mr. Fantasy, makes no sense at all to me.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by dagulla

Some of the horses on the current list were very unrealistic... the KM horse, Taquarb over the over KM horse Mr. Fantasy, makes no sense at all to me.

Really? Do you think highly of Legal Consent and Driven by Solar?

There is a great deal of talk about Mr. Fantasy but everyone needs to remember, he has beaten two NY bred fields. At Aqueduct. In the winter. That really adds an asterisk to what he's done.

I'm as big a Kiaran McLaughlin fan as anyone, so I hope Mr. Fantasy ends up being a terrific horse, but at the moment Taqarub is significantly more accomplished than him. Now discussing Taqarub's accomplishments thus far is a different discussion.

NT

[dagulla]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Really? Do you think highly of Legal Consent and Driven by Solar?

There is a great deal of talk about Mr. Fantasy but everyone needs to remember, he has beaten two NY bred fields. At Aqueduct. In the winter. That really adds an asterisk to what he's done.

I'm as big a Kiaran McLaughlin fan as anyone, so I hope Mr. Fantasy ends up being a terrific horse, but at the moment Taqarub is significantly more accomplished than him. Now discussing Taqarub's accomplishments thus far is a different discussion.

NT

I never said he would win the derby, even make it into the starting gate, but i find him a lot more likely to make it and do well then Taqarub, and he would have def. took more money then Taqarub will. As for the more accomplished, based on what ? He defeared horrible open company fields, with things his own way everytime he has raced.

[AeWingnut]

Terrain sucks? great. I put him in my RTTR stable thinking he would be pointed to the Illinois Derby

[Ogygian]

Not only will Terrain make the Derby field, he will pick up the pieces to finish a well beaten 8th,

[blackthroatedwind]

I'm confused, didn't PG lose a bet which was supposed to result in his no longer posting ( a bet which included him behaving even badly for him )? Is he not welshing on a bet?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm confused, didn't PG lose a bet which was supposed to result in his no longer posting ( a bet which included him behaving even badly for him )? Is he not welshing on a bet?

yes, he lost. and yes, he's reneging on the deal.

and he makes just as little sense as he did then. i think he went to the merasmag school for posting....

[Linny]

I tend to question the choices every year for the 23 spots. Some are obvious (Pioneer, Friesan Fire etc) but horses like T14P? Dutrow said that part of the "improvement" was bringing him back to his best distance, 6 furlongs. That's a Derby contender according to the panel who put this together?

[paisjpq]

Well, whose the jackass that keeps approving his new personas? (steve)
Its very simple to keep him honest, stop letting him rejoin.

Originally Posted by Danzig

yes, he lost. and yes, he's reneging on the deal.

and he makes just as little sense as he did then. i think he went to the merasmag school for posting....

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Linny

I tend to question the choices every year for the 23 spots. Some are obvious (Pioneer, Friesan Fire etc) but horses like T14P? Dutrow said that part of the "improvement" was bringing him back to his best distance, 6 furlongs. That's a Derby contender according to the panel who put this together?

It would be an absolute outrage if This One's For Phil was left off ... and just because his alchemist trainer was grasping for every reason he can think of to explain the horses improvement to media types.

The horse had already won a stake race at a mile - and was a better router than a sprinter when Kathleen O' Connel had him.

The horse is by a son of Unbridled who broke his maiden going 10 furlongs on turf .. and as a sire .. he gets better production with routers than sprinters... both win percentage wise and avg TG figure wise.

The tail female family is loaded with slowpoke stamina ... he had a half sibling run in the Belmont Stakes and plod past some quitters to finish like 5th or 6th.

The horse can rate - and hasn't gone a route yet for Dutrow. He will take money. There are some on that list who won't take much money ... and they are the ones who might not belong.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

It would be an absolute outrage if This One's For Phil was left off ... and just because his alchemist trainer was grasping for every reason he can think of to explain the horses improvement to media types.

The horse had already won a stake race at a mile - and was a better router than a sprinter when Kathleen O' Connel had him.

The horse is by a son of Unbridled who broke his maiden going 10 furlongs on turf .. and as a sire .. he gets better production with routers than sprinters... both win percentage wise and avg TG figure wise.

The tail female family is loaded with slowpoke stamina ... he had a half sibling run in the Belmont Stakes and plod past some quitters to finish like 5th or 6th.
The horse can rate - and hasn't gone a route yet for Dutrow. He will take money. There are some on that list who won't take much money ... and they are the ones who might not belong.

wasn't that Tap Dancer? 2004?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

yes.

He was a complete slowpoke router.

The dam of This One's For Phil is also a half sibling to Stolen Beauty. She ran down Easy Goer's 1/20 favored sister from behind to win the '91 Demoiselle at 9 furlongs as a 2yo.

This One's For Phil is bred to go very long and be very slow.

[ateamstupid]

I don't get Haskin's obsession with plodders like Terrain. I remember last year he loved Visionaire for the Derby because of the terrific fifth he ran in the Blue Grass.

[berreman150]

Read Terrain has been sick but didnt he beat Pioneer of the nile 2x already and from all that I have read Pioneer is high on everyones Derby list to win?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by berreman150

Read Terrain has been sick but didnt he beat Pioneer of the nile 2x already and from all that I have read Pioneer is high on everyones Derby list to win?

Everyone that has no clue.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Everyone that has no clue.

For the record, I have him ranked 8th. Lower than Papa Clem. Higher than Bittel Road.

Adjust accordingly.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Terrain?

He shouldn't be in the top 25 for a future bet on November's Discovery.

Where does that put Vineyard Haven?

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Really? Do you think highly of Legal Consent and Driven by Solar?

There is a great deal of talk about Mr. Fantasy but everyone needs to remember, he has beaten two NY bred fields. At Aqueduct. In the winter. That really adds an asterisk to what he's done.

I'm as big a Kiaran McLaughlin fan as anyone, so I hope Mr. Fantasy ends up being a terrific horse, but at the moment Taqarub is significantly more accomplished than him. Now discussing Taqarub's accomplishments thus far is a different discussion.

NT

With West Point owning Mr. Fantasy, and him already having been two turns (and being pointed to the Gotham which, aside from Haynesfield, is likely to come up a soft spot), he's much more likely to be a Derby starter at this point than a Shadwell owned-colt who has never been farther than 6F.