Is Capt. Candyman's Derby dream over?

Mike · #1 03-01-2009, 02:35 PM

I saw the race, on a blurry screen, but there were no excuses, right?

He just didn't have it

Riot · #2 03-01-2009, 02:41 PM

I think Take the Points Derby trail is over.

#3 03-01-2009, 02:42 PM

He'd have a shot with a different trainer.

jballscalls · #4 03-01-2009, 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike

I saw the race, on a blurry screen, but there were no excuses, right?

He just didn't have it

"Was it over when the germans bombed Pearl Harbor??"--Bluto!

he was close up during that 21 second 2nd quarter, that must have explained his lack of punch

NTamm1215 · #5 03-01-2009, 03:00 PM

Capt. Candyman Can still looks really good....

For the Woody Stephens on Belmont day.

NT

Indian Charlie · #6 03-01-2009, 03:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike

I saw the race, on a blurry screen, but there were no excuses, right?

He just didn't have it

Did you really think of him as a legitimate derby contender?

the_fat_man · #7 03-01-2009, 03:55 PM

He got his ass kicked. Then again, I'd only want Beethoven out of that race.

NTamm1215 · #8 03-01-2009, 04:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

He got his ass kicked. Then again, I'd only want Beethoven out of that race.

Really?

NT

the_fat_man · #9 03-01-2009, 04:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Really?

NT

Yes

I think the winner, and even the 2nd horse, while they ran, when others didn't, actually got MUCH BETTER setups in the race than Beethoven. In fact, that the runner up leveled off in the stretch is not a positive.

#10 03-01-2009, 05:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Really?

NT

That is interesting.
It appeared to me Joe got off fairly slow rushed up a bit,
settled and found himself a bit too far back requiring a
wide premature move on the turn that had no chance of
catching the winner.
KInd of a jerky effort from joe imo.

Maybe he is a shorter horse. But I did not consider
his run so bad considering that it was fairly uneven.
Almost thought he had to flatten out in the stretch.

Hickory Hill Hoff · #11 03-01-2009, 07:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

He got his ass kicked. Then again, I'd only want Beethoven out of that race.

For at least 3rd or 4th in the Derby.... that move doesn't win the first Saturday in May.

ateamstupid · #12 03-01-2009, 08:09 PM

Beethoven is Court Vision redux. A slow parasite on dirt that everyone will assume can go 1 1/4 miles because he passes tired horses at shorter distances.

NTamm1215 · #13 03-01-2009, 08:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Beethoven is Court Vision redux. A slow parasite on dirt that everyone will assume can go 1 1/4 miles because he passes tired horses at shorter distances.

Court Vision is a good comparison. I was going to go with Dollar Bill.

At least Flat Out has already claimed the Jamaican Rum/Lusty Latin title.

NT

the_fat_man · #14 03-01-2009, 08:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Beethoven is Court Vision redux. A slow parasite on dirt that everyone will assume can go 1 1/4 miles because he passes tired horses at shorter distances.

Let's assume that's the case in the FOY (which, actually, it isn't). It's certainly not the case in his other races.

What happened to all the FAST horses in the FOY? Did any finish ahead of him?

NTamm1215 · #15 03-01-2009, 08:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Let's assume that's the case in the FOY (which, actually, it isn't). It's certainly not the case in his other races.

What happened to all the FAST horses in the FOY? Did any finish ahead of him?

I didn't play the big figure horses in the FOY. I bet Capt. Candyman Can with Quality Road.

That being said, I just don't see anything about Beethoven that would make me like him going forward. He has run basically the same race four times in a row and when everything breaks his way he gets in the mix. They went extremely fast in front of him and he picked up the pieces late but was still beaten a distance. Race dynamics were in his favor yesterday and though he went wide around the far turn, I just don't see anything about his trip that would make him seem likely.

Beethoven's signature win came in a race where he could barely run down a pacesetter who had gone very fast early while he had an absolutely perfect trip. He's going to have to step his game up in a big way.

NT

the_fat_man · #16 03-01-2009, 08:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Beethoven's signature win came in a race where he could barely run down a pacesetter who had gone very fast early while he had an absolutely perfect trip. He's going to have to step his game up in a big way.

NT

Should I start listing all the races where I have one of two in an exacta? That's not a daily occurrence.

I loaded up on CCM last out, btw.

Must we discuss trips again?

If you're referring to the Kentucky Jockey Club, you might want to review what (actually) happened in that race. BTW, didn't he hold off your horse, CCM, in that one?

You know, the last mover.

How about the Holy Bull; did he get a perfect trip there as well?

Not saying this horse is special but he's certainly going to run better AROUND 2 TURNS, on a FAIR track, than anything coming out of the FOY. Last I looked, you need some middle moves to completely collapse a race.

Bobby Fischer · #17 03-01-2009, 08:57 PM

Beethoven has the right kind of style and ability to be winning races at a lower class. Unfortunately if he gets the class drop he needs, he will be overbet anyway. He is a 7f to a mile type of horse. He has some options such as synthetic races, although Keeneland should be too challenging at allowance or better, and the Lanes End at turfway is too far. There are also some ungraded stakes he could shoot for.
Allowance at turfway seems about right

.

Last 2
In the Holy Bull he raced against the bias, wide into the 1st turn, and then had to try to tackle 2 horses who had been riding with the bias. Beyond his distance limits, he was done by the 2nd turn and was being hard ridden, but still stayed on enough to battle for third.

In the FOY ridden well off the pace, and came home in a race best 48.31 for the last 4 furlongs.

NTamm1215 · #18 03-01-2009, 09:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Should I start listing all the races where I have one of two in an exacta? That's not a daily occurrence.

I loaded up on CCM last out, btw.

Must we discuss trips again?

If you're referring to the Kentucky Jockey Club, you might want to review what (actually) happened in that race. BTW, didn't he hold off your horse, CCM, in that one?

You know, the last mover.

How about the Holy Bull; did he get a perfect trip there as well?

Not saying this horse is special but he's certainly going to run better AROUND 2 TURNS, on a FAIR track, than anything coming out of the FOY. Last I looked, you need some middle moves to completely collapse a race.

TFM-

How was CCM the last mover in the KJC? Beethoven cruised right up to him at the quarter pole and I suppose the very slight (and largely inconsequential) bump between the two of them affected his stride. From there in you had a horse who just sat back behind the hot pace and never left the inside slugging it out with a horse who had done all of the running after going wide around the first turn to try to get to the lead. The fact that CCM even battled with him at all was huge.

I didn't say anything about Beethoven getting a perfect trip in the Holy Bull. I think the Holy Bull was a pretty horrendous horse race all in all, and I'm not interested in any horse who raced in it. Sure, he was outside on a track that favored speed, but wouldn't that make you want West Side Bernie if you had to have anyone?

I'm also very realistic about Capt. Candyman Can. I've liked the horse since Saratoga and made a few bucks on him in the Hutcheson. He is going to be a nice sprinter, that's it in my opinion.

You're certainly right that Beethoven is better at two turns. He'll definitely get 10 furlongs as well, it's just going to take him way too long.

NT

the_fat_man · #19 03-01-2009, 09:31 PM

Nick

I'm multitasking and wasn't paying attention (and confused my colors).

While CCM was wide the 1st turn, he had it all his own way and Beethoven had to go and get him. If the pace were as 'hot' as you seem to think, and CCM was at a disadvantage, then why doesn't Beethoven, running on the rail throughout, drop him in the stretch? Maybe he's not much. But why doesn't Giant Oak blow by both of them? Now, I happen to think that Giant Oak is a decent horse and given the setup you describe, he's supposed to pass them. Is he a plodding plug as well?

If CCM got all the worst of it and still held very, very well, what happened to him yesterday? Is the PERFECT TRIP Hutchenson the best he has to offer after that (supposed) MONSTER effort in the KJC?

I don't think the FOY set up for a closer yesterday; fast pace notwithstanding.

NTamm1215 · #20 03-01-2009, 09:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Nick

I'm multitasking and wasn't paying attention (and confused my colors).

While CCM was wide the 1st turn, he had it all his own way and Beethoven had to go and get him. If the pace were as 'hot' as you seem to think, and CCM was at a disadvantage, then why doesn't Beethoven, running on the rail throughout, drop him in the stretch? Maybe he's not much. But why doesn't Giant Oak blow by both of them? Now, I happen to think that Giant Oak is a decent horse and given the setup you describe, he's supposed to pass them. Is he a plodding plug as well?

If CCM got all the worst of it and still held very, very well, what happened to him yesterday? Is the PERFECT TRIP Hutchenson the best he has to offer after that (supposed) MONSTER effort in the KJC?

I don't think the FOY set up for a closer yesterday; fast pace notwithstanding.

CCM was bad yesterday, no doubt. It just was not a good effort at all. Perhaps he only wants seven furlongs? I'm not sure but at this time there's no way he's a real two-turn horse.

I think Giant Oak should have absolutely swallowed both CCM and Beethoven up in the KJC. I think Giant Oak is not much at all and there has been much made about his trip in the Risen Star. He was in tight for some time and your man Prado certainly didn't do him any favors, but I think he and the rest of the NOLA crowd will be exposed by the new and improved Patena in the La Derby. I do think Giant Oak has a bright future on the weeds.

NT