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#1
03-07-2009, 07:31 AM
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3/7: AQU (R5-10); GP (R8-11); Magna 5; SA (R5-11)
Full day of outstanding action Saturday starts with intriguing Gotham and Toboggan stakes card at Aqueduct which is now enhanced by $109,000 Carryover as well as another guaranteed Late P4.. The Magna 5 looks very difficult once again this week with a good listed stake at Laurel (9th) starting things off before the Honest Lady at Santa Anita (5th), a Gulfstream ALW (9th), Golden Gate ALW headscratcher (5th) and Arcadia downhill course finale (6th).. Gulfstream has also managed to accrue a $68,000 carryover for it's P6after Friday's quirky results.. And of course the day continues at Santa Anita for the Gr. I trio of the Oaks, Kilroe and Big Cap.. Should be a fabulous afternoon and evening!
AQUEDUCT 5th: CLM, 4+, 6f (P6, P3, DD) Very tough start to the P6 with in-and-out $10k claimers.. Most Likely: #6 Make the Point 5-1 WON Next Best: #1e Contessa entry 3-1 7th/12th Best Value: #3 Spring Meadows 9-2 3rd Exotics Use: #4 True Rebel 4-1 2nd $1 Exacta (6-4) Paid $17.90 $1 Trifecta (6-4-3) Box Paid $57.25 6th: OC/C, 3yo, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #9 Fellow Crasher 5-2 2nd Next Best: #5 Higher Place 6-1 8th Best Value: #3 Wild Proof 12-1 9th Super Add: #8 Counter Move 8-1 WON $1 Exacta (8-9) Paid $26.75 7th: NYB-MSW, 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super) Best Value: #6 For Love Alone 6-1 5th Most Likely: #2 Not Ja Mama 7-2 3rd Next Best: SCR #1 Sub #8 Jet's Tradition 8-1 4th Super Add: #9 Lilith's Dream 15-1 8th 8th: 116th Toboggan H. (Gr. II), 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super) An unbelievably balanced and confusing edition of this legendary race.. Best Value: #2 Eternal Star 9-2 2nd Most Likely: #1 Driven by Success 7-2 5th Next Best: #9 Ah Day 8-1 WON Super Add: #3 Place Your Bet 12-1 9th $1 Exacta (9-2) Paid $44.25 9th: 57th Gotham (Gr. II), 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Super) Most Likely: #5 Mr. Fantasy 7-2: State bred horse to beat; Tight and fast; 3rd Best Value: #6 Haynesfield 5-1: Consistency earns NYB respect.. 8th Next Best: #3 Masala 5-1: 2nd to Sham runner-up/barnmate last.. 4th Super Add: #2 Russell Road 20-1: WV bred will light board if OK routing.. 5th 10th: CLM, 4+, 1m-70y (Super) Most Likely: #7 Dreamin of Victory 7-2 5th Best Value: #6 K. R.'s Regent 4-1 6th Next Best: #1 Military Major 5-2 DNF Super Add: #9 Fregata 12-1 2nd <$200 P6 Play: 5: 1-3-6 6: 5-9 7: 2-6 8: 1-2-3-9 9: 5 10: 6-7 3x2x2x4x1x2 = 96 x $2 = $192 <$50 P4 Play: 7: 2-6 8: 1-2-3-4-5-6-8-9 9: 5 10: 1-6-7 2x8x1x3 = $48 GULFSTREAM 8th: MSW, 3yo, 7f (.50 P4, P3, Super) Most Likely: #10 Custom for Carlos 5-2 WON Next Best: #4 Dubinsky 6-1 4th Best Value: #7 Bear's Prospector 12-1 5th Super Add: #3 Big Top 4-1 9th 9th: OC/N$Y, 4+, 1m (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #3 B. B. Best 5-2 5th Best Value: #4 Wicked B. Havior 6-1 2nd Next Best: #1 Dream Maestro 3-1 3rd Super Add: #2 Discreet Treasure 5-1 WON 10th: 24th Honey Fox (Gr. II), F&M-4+, 1m-T (DD, Super) Most Likely: #2 Wild Promises 5-2 Best Value: #4 Audacious Chloe 12-1 Next Best: #1 I Lost My Choo 8-1 WON Super Add: #5 Love Cove 12-1 11th: MSW, 3yo, 7f (Super) Most Likely: #1 Galligan Road 5-2 4th Next Best: #5 Antitrust 4-1 2nd Best Value: #9 Unbridled Cardinal 20-1 7th Super Add: #4 San Valentino 3-1 WON <$75 .50 P4 Play: 8: 4-7-10 9: 1-2-3-4 10: 1-2-4-5-9-15 11: 1-5 3x4x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72 MAGNA 5 A.) LRL 9th: The Wide Country, 3yo-F, 7f (Super) Best Value: #2 SAARLIGHT 4-1 WON Most Likely: #9 Strut the Canary 5-2 2nd Next Best: #8 Huge 5-1 7th Super Add: #7 Fondant 10-1 4th B.) SA 5th: Honest Lady, F&M-4+, 6f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #3 Foxy Danseur 5-2 2nd Best Value: #1 Starry Pursuit 5-1 8th Next Best: #4 Moonshine Alice 9-2 6th Super Add: #9 Highland Torree 8-1 5th C.) GP 9th: OC/N$Y, 4+, 1m (P3, Super) Most Likely: #3 B. B. Best 5-2 5th Best Value: #4 Wicked B. Havior 6-1 2nd Next Best: #1 Dream Maestro 3-1 3rd Super Add: #2 Discreet Treasure 5-1 WON D.) GG 5th: ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 6f (P3, DD, Super, Super High 5) Most Likely: #3 Flighty Girl 6-1 4th Best Value: #2 Dizzy Up the Girl 8-1 11th Next Best: #10 Storm Queen 3-1 2nd Super Add: #8 Dynamatic 7-2 5th High 5 Play: #1 Persian Honey 12-1 9th E.) SA 6th: Cal-OC/N1X, 4+, 6.5f-DHT (P6, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #8 Deputy Flyer 5-1 10th Best Value: #1 Hannah's Classy Boy 15-1 5th Next Best: #7 Buck's Bro 7-2 3rd Super Add: #4 No Sweat 10-1 7th $200 Magna 5 Play: A: 2 B: 1-3-4-5-9 C: 1-2-3-4 D: 2-3 E: 1-4-6-7-8 1x5x4x2x5 = $200 SANTA ANITA 5th: 2nd Honest Lady, F&M-4+, 6f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #3 Foxy Danseur 5-2 2nd Best Value: #1 Starry Pursuit 5-1 8th Next Best: #4 Moonshine Alice 9-2 6th Super Add: #9 Highland Torree 8-1 5th 6th: Cal-OC/N1X, 4+, 6.5f-DHT (P6, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #8 Deputy Flyer 5-1 10th Best Value: #1 Hannah's Classy Boy 15-1 5th Next Best: #7 Buck's Bro 7-2 3rd Super Add: #4 No Sweat 10-1 7th 7th: 70th Santa Anita Oaks (Gr. I), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #1 Stardom Bound 2-5 WON Best Value: #4 Hooh Why 15-1 3rd Next Best: #7 Will O Way 8-1 9th Super Add: #8 Beltene 15-1 6th 8th: OC/N2X, 4+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #1e Baffert entry 3-1 4th/10th Next Best: #6 Cherokee Artist 4-1 WON Best Value: #11 Sensational Score 12-1 6th Super Add: #10 Limestone Edge 6-1 11th 9th: 9th Kilroe Mile (Gr. I), 4+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super) Expect #2 Mast Track to SCR.. A must-use if he goes however.. Most Likely: #1 Ventura 2-1 2nd Best Value: #9 Global Hunter 8-1 4th Next Best: #11 Gio Ponti 6-1 WON Super Add: #5 Wise River 15-1 9th 10th: 72nd Santa Anita H. (Gr. I), 4+, 10f (DD, Super) Most Likely: #1 Matto Mondo 6-1: Mandella has 5yo perfect; Pace edge on lead.. 3rd Best Value: #12 Zambezi Sun 12-1: Expect less eager effort in 2nd U.S. try.. 9th Next Best: #8 Einstein 6-1: Pitts veteran too tough and versatile to exclude.. WON Super Add: #11 Court Vision 6-1: If 'turf' race pace unfolds, Dominguez factors in.. 7th 11th: CLM, 4+, 1m-T (Super High 5) Most Likely: #7 Rathor 6-1 8th Best Value: #10 Plug Me In 10-1 10th Next Best: #4 Mt. Orient 7-2 12th Exotics Use: #9 Soupy 5-1 2nd High 5 Play: #2 Macduff 6-1 4th <$200 P6 Play: 6: 1-4-7-8 7: 1-4 8: 1 9: 1-9 10: 1-12 11: 4-7-10 4x2x1x2x2x3 = 96 x $2 = $192 <$75 P4 Play: 8: 1-6 9: 1-9-11 10: 1-8-11-12 11: 4-7-10 2x3x4x3 = $72 Good luck! Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 03-08-2009 at 10:19 AM. 
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#2
03-07-2009, 09:26 AM
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Steve
I believe Cherokee Artist is the #6 in race 8 at SA. Also, Einstein should be #8. Just a heads up. Good luck today!
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Good Luck......and may a Derby Trailer lead the way to the window! Ed Last edited by fantini33 : 03-07-2009 at 09:36 AM.
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#3
03-07-2009, 10:28 AM
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Steve,
Quick question...Why B.B. Best most likely in the 9th at Gulfstream? Looking back over his lifetime PP's, he seems to regress heavily off his comebacker. Did a quick Formulator search on Plesa, over the last 5 years, 2nd off the layoff on dirt, at a mile or more, he is 3% with a ROI of $0.65. I keep coming back to Song Shan. Has some early foot, and putting Lynch under tha same query, he comes back 38% with an ROI of $1.95. If you replace route with going sprint to route, he is 40% with a $3.04 ROI. Just wanted to understand why you put B.B. on top. Thanks!
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#4
03-07-2009, 10:31 AM
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#6
03-07-2009, 10:55 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#7
03-07-2009, 10:56 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#8
03-07-2009, 11:02 AM
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Ventura is really good but i think she's going to have a tough go of it today.
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#9
03-07-2009, 11:02 AM
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ANDY SERLING'S & ERIC DONOVAN'S SATURDAY SELECTIONS
http://www.nyra.com/aqueduct/stories...ngHorses.shtml AQU SCR'S http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/AQU-changes.asp 6TH: 2 Hatfield Early 7TH: 1 Imthequeenofqueens Early 4 Pebo's Jet Early 12 Olde Glamour Early 10TH: 1A Tour of the Cat Early 2 (poe) Gift of Valor Early
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#10
03-07-2009, 11:13 AM
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Gulfstream's Early Changes: Saturday, March 7
NOTE: Yesterday a key SCR was missing from the GP website. Check your ADW change listing to ensure accuracy... Track: Fast Turf: Firm Rail: 60 Feet Race 2: Jockey Change: #7 J C Sanchez Race 4: Scratch #13 #14 #15 #16 Jockey Change: #5 P. Monterrey 121 lbs Race 5: Scratch #1 (POE) #2 Race 6: Scratch #2 #13 #15 #16 Jockey Change: #14 Paco Lopez Race 7: Scratch #2 #6 Race 9: Jockey Change: #6 Manoel Cruz 124 lbs Race 10: Scratch #3 #6 #14 Jockey Change: 13 TBA Race 11: No Changes __________________________________________________ _________________________________ MAGNA 5 SCR/CHG'S: http://www.magna5.com/scratches.aspx MAGNA PP's http://www.xpressbet.com/ed/downloads/m5pp0307.pdf __________________________________________________ ________________________________________ SANTA ANITA Scratches Race 1 #14 Niger River, #11 Road to the Throne Race 2 #8 Premium Quality Race 6 #13 Brian the Bold, #14 Complexity Race 7 #10 Acronym Race 8 #12 Rocket Legs, #13 Zappa Race 9 #2 Mast Track, #3 Monterey Jazz Race 10 #5 Colonel John Race 11 #14 Salty Humor, #13 Rivergrade Boy
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 03-07-2009 at 12:32 PM.
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#13
03-07-2009, 12:43 PM
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#14
03-07-2009, 12:59 PM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#16
03-07-2009, 01:11 PM
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Magna was actually OK as I'm using 5 in that last leg including the 6-7-8, but it did affect the SA P6 numbers. G/L today...
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#17
03-07-2009, 02:53 PM
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Saturday Plays
$1 Magna 5
Leg a - 9 - Strut the Canary 2 - Saarlight 5 - Haley's Lolipop Leg b - 3 - Foxy Danseur Leg c - 5 - Song Shan 1 - Dream Maestro 7- Admirality Leg d - 10 - Storm Queen 3 - Flighty Girl Leg e - 12 - Tribal Justice 6 - Swift Demand 1 - Hannah's Classy Boy $54 for $1 Aqueduct Late PK 4 Race 7 - 2,3,6,11 Race 8 - 1,2,9 Race 9 - 5,7 Race 10 - 1,6 $48 for $1 Santa Anita late PK 4 Race 8 - 1entry - Riley Tucker, Malt Magic 6 - Cherokee Artist 8 - Soul City Slew 10 - Limestone Edge Race 9 - 1 - Ventura Race 10 - 7 - Blue Exit 8 - Einstein 12 -Zambezi Sun 9 - Dasant 11 - Court Vision Race 11 4 - Mt. Orient 7 - Rathor $40 for $1 Good Luck Everyone!
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#19
03-07-2009, 03:17 PM
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Aqueduct
pick 4 2,6,8 1,2,5,6,8 5,7 1,7 $60
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Linear Mode
