Pick4 Payout vs Win Parlay

pmacdaddy · #1 03-25-2009, 08:32 PM

I often see comments on Win Parlay versus Pick 4 Payout in specific instances.

I am wondering if anyone has seen those numbers on a longer term basis? Like over a full meeting or historically over a period. I know there are lots of factors that imapct this, just curious what that relationship is overall and if it is somewhat consistant.

Thanks

hi_im_god · #2 03-25-2009, 09:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pmacdaddy

I often see comments on Win Parlay versus Pick 4 Payout in specific instances.

I am wondering if anyone has seen those numbers on a longer term basis? Like over a full meeting or historically over a period. I know there are lots of factors that imapct this, just curious what that relationship is overall and if it is somewhat consistant.

Thanks

i haven't seen figures but have a prediction.

paying 25% once (pick 4) is cheaper than paying 15-20% 4 times (win parlay).

the pick 4 should average a higher payout because there's less overall hold.

dellinger63 · #3 03-25-2009, 09:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pmacdaddy

I often see comments on Win Parlay versus Pick 4 Payout in specific instances.

I am wondering if anyone has seen those numbers on a longer term basis? Like over a full meeting or historically over a period. I know there are lots of factors that imapct this, just curious what that relationship is overall and if it is somewhat consistant.

Thanks

I'd also love to see stats track v. track once the numbers are determined.

ateamstupid · #4 03-25-2009, 09:17 PM

I took record of this sort of thing at Saratoga a few years back. The payouts are pretty consistent with the takeout difference between tracks. I've found in my betting that the average range of pick four prices is usually 150%-225% the win parlay. Extremely chalky or long bomb payouts can often pay less or more than this range of course.

SCUDSBROTHER · #5 03-25-2009, 09:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pmacdaddy

I often see comments on Win Parlay versus Pick 4 Payout in specific instances.

I am wondering if anyone has seen those numbers on a longer term basis? Like over a full meeting or historically over a period. I know there are lots of factors that imapct this, just curious what that relationship is overall and if it is somewhat consistant.

Thanks

Not sure how many factors there are. There's really one main factor(how much money insiders try to hide in the multi-race pools.) If not for that, there would always be a much greater payoff for the p3/p4 than the win parlays. Gotham Head Contrarian In Charge seems to be in denile about it though.

NTamm1215 · #6 03-25-2009, 09:28 PM

Without looking at the numbers closely I have noticed that payoffs relative to the win parlay have gotten better in NY since the guaranteed Pick 4 was put in place on Saturdays. Pool size will definitely help payoffs.

NT

pmacdaddy · #7 03-25-2009, 09:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

Not sure how many factors there are. There's really one main factor(how much money insiders try to hide in the multi-race pools.) If not for that, there would always be a much greater payoff for the p3/p4 than the win parlays. Gotham Head Contrarian In Charge seems to be in denile about it though.

I think I find almost the opposite.

One of the big factors that positively effect the pk4 payouts vs parlay are horses heavily bet on the win side. Lots of times when horses are heavily bet down you can get much better odds in the pk4 pool than win pool after money comes pouring in.

SCUDSBROTHER · #8 03-25-2009, 09:40 PM

Told you that Gotham is in denile about it.

blackthroatedwind · #9 03-25-2009, 09:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

Told you that Gotham is in denile about it.

What's a denile?

SCUDSBROTHER · #10 03-25-2009, 10:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

What's a denile?

It's an alternate spelling of denial.

Oaklawnfan · #11 03-26-2009, 01:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

What's a denile?

it's either de river or de horse

Thunder Gulch · #12 03-26-2009, 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pmacdaddy

I think I find almost the opposite.

One of the big factors that positively effect the pk4 payouts vs parlay are horses heavily bet on the win side. Lots of times when horses are heavily bet down you can get much better odds in the pk4 pool than win pool after money comes pouring in.

In some cases, yes, but heavily beat favorites to win are usually singles in the P3-4. Either way, the one time take will beat a parlay in almost every instance.