Derby prep pace figs & observations

[The Indomitable DrugS]

This is on the basis of actual pace figures - not naked raw fractions a lot of people like to guess with. The pace call of each race is 6fs, a length equals about 2.5 points.


Dirt: (11 preps) Ranked from Fastest Paced to Slowest Paced

#1: Fountain of Youth (114) Leader at pace call: This One's For Phil

#2: Rebel (105) Leader at pace call: Old Fashioned

#3: Southwest (101) Leader at pace call: Silver City

#4: Florida Derby (94) Leader at pace call: Quality Road

#5: Gotham (89) Leader at pace call: Mr. Fantasy

#6: Risen Star (84) Leader at pace call: It Happened Again

#7t: Holy Bull (83) Leader at pace call: Bear's Rocket

#7t: Sam Davis (83) Leader at pace call: A P Cardinal

#9: Louisiana Derby (79) Leader at pace call: Papa Clem

#10: Tampa Derby (78) Leader at pace call: Join In The Dance

#11: Lecomte (75) Leader at pace call: Au Moon


Fake dirt: (7 preps)

#1. Sham (103) Leader at pace call: The Pampelmousse

#2. San Rafael (97) Leader at pace call: The Pampelmousse

#3. California Derby (86)

#4. El Camino Real Derby (84)

#5. Lane's End (83)

#6. Bob Lewis (73)

#7. San Felipe (69)


Some observations:

* Friesan Fire has run in 3 VERY slow paced races in a row - and was stalking just off the slow pace each time. Dunkirk clearly ran faster pace figs in his two GP routes than FF has in his last 3 races. Imperial Council ran a faster number in his alw race two starts back - and Win Willy - who was 7th at the pace call in his Rebel win - ran a faster pace number than FF has in any of his last three wins.

Just because perceived deep closers like Dunkirk, Win Willy, and Imperial Council have all been running faster pace numbers than FF - doesn't mean that you should expect them all to be in front of him after 6fs has been run in the Derby.

FF has a big pace number 4 starts back! He ran a 95 when 2 lengths clear on a very strong pace in a FG Alw race at a mile - however, that razor sharp pace did him in and Uno Mas ran him down in the stretch and FF could only manage a 79 Beyer in defeat. In other words .. FF can run a lot faster early on than he has been running ... but if he does .. instead of blasting home he will stagger home.


* The two fastest paced synthetic track races were both won wire-to-wire by The Pampelmousse. The two slowest pace ones were both won by closer Pioneer of the Nile. It is very smart for Zayat to run a rabbit in this race .. because if PotN would be taken out of his comfort zone to keep The P honest .. he could come up flat like Point Given or Afleet Alex did in a pair of very fast paced Derbys. By sucking way back early and letting his sprinter rabbit put pressure on his rival .. he becomes the most likely winner of the Santa Anita Derby.

* Old Fashioned has shown the ability to run very fast early in his last two races - and three starts back he showed totally cyclonic late speed when allowed to walk on an uncontested lead.

He ran a 62 pace and 100 final while on the lead in the Remsen. While denied the early lead by Silver City in his two preps, he's run a 100 pace and 92 final in the Southwest and a 105 pace and 98 final in the Rebel.

He will never get another chance to go as slow as he did on the lead in the Remsen - but he's been running way too fast early the last two times! He would have been totally loose on the lead in every other Derby prep except the Fountain Of Youth. If he's able to get clear early with a pace fig in the mid 80's in the Ark Derby ... look for him to take a good run at the 105-to-110 Beyer range. Possibly even higher if the track happens to be speed biased.

[Payson Dave]

good stuff

[Indian Charlie]

This goes to support that I think FF isn't really a front running type of horse anyways, and that he'll do better sitting back a little ways off the lead.

I love that.

Why does everyone think he's a need the lead runner?

[Thunder Gulch]

Dr. Roman's site always has some good stuff on pace parameters and how they fit historical guidelines on the Derby trail......

[Sightseek]

re: Imperial Council, wasn't the Gotham the first time he was taken far off the pace? What was your pace number for him in his allowance race?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

It was the first time he was taken well off the pace.

Here are the four lifetime pace #'s I have for him. Note that his first three starts were all sprints - so the pace call would be 4fs instead of 6.

Gotham: 69
3yo Alw: 94
Bel MSW win: 66
Sar debut: 79

It's rare to see a horse go from a 94 pace 93 final sprinting - to a 69 pace and 98 final routing.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

It was the first time he was taken well off the pace.

Here are the four lifetime pace #'s I have for him. Note that his first three starts were all sprints - so the pace call would be 4fs instead of 6.

Gotham: 69
3yo Alw: 94
Bel MSW win: 66
Sar debut: 79

It's rare to see a horse go from a 94 pace 93 final sprinting - to a 69 pace and 98 final routing.

At the risk of sounding stupid, so does this mean he's a horse that won't be a casualty of pace because he is basically making his own race or do you consider his last race a complete anomaly?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I think they simply opted not to use his speed at all last time.

The Gotham's 89 pace fig seems ok - but it's pretty slow in relation to the razor sharp final time of the race.

Had the pace call been after 4fs instead of 6fs - I'm pretty sure that the Gotham would have earned a markedly lower pace fig - because the first half mile of the race was a total crawl .. but the third quarter mile was very sharp and inflated the pace fig to an 89.

Basically, the way I look at it - the connections of Imperial Council blew there best chance to win by the tactics they used.

Saying that, no matter what tactics they used - they certainly weren't beating IWR on that speed friendly track .. and they set Imperial Council up well to stretch out to further distances.

Both his sire and dam sire won the Belmont Stakes ... and horses who have shown good raw speed sprinting - as well as the ability to run well in a slow paced route - are the kind of horses who can be tough in the Belmont.

[Sightseek]

In this article Moss says that the FL Derby was one of the slowest-paced Derby preps so far?

http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/hor...ndy&id=4034588

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

This is on the basis of actual pace figures - not naked raw fractions a lot of people like to guess with. The pace call of each race is 6fs, a length equals about 2.5 points.


Dirt: (11 preps) Ranked from Fastest Paced to Slowest Paced

#1: Fountain of Youth (114) Leader at pace call: This One's For Phil

#2: Rebel (105) Leader at pace call: Old Fashioned

#3: Southwest (101) Leader at pace call: Silver City

#4: Florida Derby (94) Leader at pace call: Quality Road

#5: Gotham (89) Leader at pace call: Mr. Fantasy

#6: Risen Star (84) Leader at pace call: It Happened Again

#7t: Holy Bull (83) Leader at pace call: Bear's Rocket

#7t: Sam Davis (83) Leader at pace call: A P Cardinal

#9: Louisiana Derby (79) Leader at pace call: Papa Clem

#10: Tampa Derby (78) Leader at pace call: Join In The Dance

#11: Lecomte (75) Leader at pace call: Au Moon


Fake dirt: (7 preps)

#1. Sham (103) Leader at pace call: The Pampelmousse

#2. San Rafael (97) Leader at pace call: The Pampelmousse

#3. California Derby (86)

#4. El Camino Real Derby (84)

#5. Lane's End (83)

#6. Bob Lewis (73)

#7. San Felipe (69)


Some observations:

* Friesan Fire has run in 3 VERY slow paced races in a row - and was stalking just off the slow pace each time. Dunkirk clearly ran faster pace figs in his two GP routes than FF has in his last 3 races. Imperial Council ran a faster number in his alw race two starts back - and Win Willy - who was 7th at the pace call in his Rebel win - ran a faster pace number than FF has in any of his last three wins.

Just because perceived deep closers like Dunkirk, Win Willy, and Imperial Council have all been running faster pace numbers than FF - doesn't mean that you should expect them all to be in front of him after 6fs has been run in the Derby.

FF has a big pace number 4 starts back! He ran a 95 when 2 lengths clear on a very strong pace in a FG Alw race at a mile - however, that razor sharp pace did him in and Uno Mas ran him down in the stretch and FF could only manage a 79 Beyer in defeat. In other words .. FF can run a lot faster early on than he has been running ... but if he does .. instead of blasting home he will stagger home.


* The two fastest paced synthetic track races were both won wire-to-wire by The Pampelmousse. The two slowest pace ones were both won by closer Pioneer of the Nile. It is very smart for Zayat to run a rabbit in this race .. because if PotN would be taken out of his comfort zone to keep The P honest .. he could come up flat like Point Given or Afleet Alex did in a pair of very fast paced Derbys. By sucking way back early and letting his sprinter rabbit put pressure on his rival .. he becomes the most likely winner of the Santa Anita Derby.

* Old Fashioned has shown the ability to run very fast early in his last two races - and three starts back he showed totally cyclonic late speed when allowed to walk on an uncontested lead.

He ran a 62 pace and 100 final while on the lead in the Remsen. While denied the early lead by Silver City in his two preps, he's run a 100 pace and 92 final in the Southwest and a 105 pace and 98 final in the Rebel.

He will never get another chance to go as slow as he did on the lead in the Remsen - but he's been running way too fast early the last two times! He would have been totally loose on the lead in every other Derby prep except the Fountain Of Youth. If he's able to get clear early with a pace fig in the mid 80's in the Ark Derby ... look for him to take a good run at the 105-to-110 Beyer range. Possibly even higher if the track happens to be speed biased.

I don't trust the internal fractions at all at FG. I think some of the timers are in the wrong place. For example, using the posted fractions, Friesan Fire went:

Lecomte :24 1/5, :24 2/5, :25 4/5, :24 1/5
Risen Star :23 2/5, :24 2/5, :26, :31 (so reasonably, :24 3/5-:6 2/5)
Lousiana Derby :24 1/5, :24 2/5, :24 3/5, :30 1/5 (so reasonably, :24-:6 1/5)

Only the Louisiana Derby would make any sense at all but even that shows too much acceleration given the track condition. Dirt horses just don't make these many changes of pace. If he really did run these, he's a serious Derby contender.


Otherwise, great work. How did you determine the pace variants for each of the days? Nonmechanical pace calcs seem to have a lot of "guesswork" involved unless you know the individual circuit's timing quirks extremely well (i.e., like at GP the mile pace # is much different than the 7f or 6f number because of the lack of runup.)

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

In this article Moss says that the FL Derby was one of the slowest-paced Derby preps so far?

http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/hor...ndy&id=4034588

It was by far the toughest prep race to make a pace figure for because of two reasons..

#1. It was the days only two-turn dirt route

#2. You had winds blowing over 30 MPH.


Even on Randy's own pace figures ... his statement isn't accurate.

He only has four preps faster paced than he has the Fla Derby.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

I don't trust the internal fractions at all at FG. I think some of the timers are in the wrong place. For example, using the posted fractions, Friesan Fire went:

Lecomte :24 1/5, :24 2/5, :25 4/5, :24 1/5
Risen Star :23 2/5, :24 2/5, :26, :31 (so reasonably, :24 3/5-:6 2/5)
Lousiana Derby :24 1/5, :24 2/5, :24 3/5, :30 1/5 (so reasonably, :24-:6 1/5)

Only the Louisiana Derby would make any sense at all but even that shows too much acceleration given the track condition. Dirt horses just don't make these many changes of pace. If he really did run these, he's a serious Derby contender.

All 4 of FF's pace figures from his FG races are very cut and dry imo.

* in the Lousiana Derby - Papa Clem set a 1:13.35 pace - by comparison, Rachel Alexandra went a full second faster and Secret Getaway went 2 full seconds faster in a couple of routes earlier in the card.

* In the Risen Star - It Happened Again set a 1:13.64 pace - by comparison, War Tigress went a full second faster in a 3yo filly race at the same distance 30 minutes earlier.

* In the Lecomte - Au Moon set a 1:13.53 pace - by comparison, Selva went 1:12.82 in a small field 3yo filly stake at the same distance 30 minutes prior.

Originally Posted by philcski

Otherwise, great work. How did you determine the pace variants for each of the days? Nonmechanical pace calcs seem to have a lot of "guesswork" involved unless you know the individual circuit's timing quirks extremely well (i.e., like at GP the mile pace # is much different than the 7f or 6f number because of the lack of runup.)

I have track specific pars and charts and everything else. It's basically not much different than making final time figures. But the wind can sometimes make things a real bitch.