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#1
04-05-2009, 12:17 PM
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Affirmatif
Affirmatif returns off his much hyped maiden win in today's 8th at Keeneland. He is 4-5 on the morning line. He may be a super horse. Certainly from the medcia coverage of his debut, one would think so. However, in my opinion, this presents a classic opportunity to cash in on the hype and try to beat him.
Facing winners for the first time, this field is not soft. Rescue Squad is my top choice. This horse won at first asking for Shug (which says alot right there). Has since run two good races behinbd top level competition and has every right to improve at 10-1 on the morning line. John Kimmel sends out Two Brash. This one also won at first asking. In three starts since then, he has run well. The winners of those three races were Theregoesjojo, Imperial Council, and Florentino. He is 15-1 morning line. Bill Mot send out Strike Again who won his debut and then lost a close decision to Florentino. Larry Jones has an interesting runner who lost by less than a length to Orthodox in his first try at this level. Not to mention that Chris Clemente and Roger Attfield have horses making their North American debuts. This field is loaded. Yet Affirmatif will be odds on. Could he win. Certainly. However, this race provides amazing value if you want to play against. Paul 
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#2
04-05-2009, 12:42 PM
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More than agreed. Problem is, which ONE do you land on? Box some up, hope he runs out......maybe use him with two or three others in a .50 pick 4 , then single in a $2 pick 4.
How to use this opinion is the key. Either way, good luck!
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Good Luck......and may a Derby Trailer lead the way to the window! Ed
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#3
04-05-2009, 12:47 PM
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the kimmel and the mott..alittle margolis mixed in
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#4
04-05-2009, 02:15 PM
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Rain Dance
 SOUTH EAST SOUTH EAST SOUTH EAST The Valor horse is interesting , and the Larry Jones horse has a slight chance of improving. However Affirmative hasn't shown me any weakness. He has tactical speed, physically impressive, plenty of speed and stamina and he worked great before and after his dominating debut. Unless it rains enough to soften, I don't see this slight step in class, distance, and surface creating enough real change to make him a true underlay. If you do bet against - good luck. It will pay well if you beat him.
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#5
04-05-2009, 02:51 PM
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I'm surprised pletcher didn't toss this horse in the Bluegrass...
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Alcohol, the cause and solution to all of life's problems. -Homer Simpson
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#6
04-05-2009, 02:59 PM
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I'm using Attfield's import #6 Rapid Release some. Could have likely found a softer spot in Florida, yet waits for this.
P4: 6: 2-4-5-9 7: 2-3-4-5 8: 5-6-7 9: 2-3-4-10 4x4x3x4 = 192 x .50 = $92
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#7
04-05-2009, 03:12 PM
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KEE late 4, Splitting both with my brother. Best of luck to everyone playing today and GO PHILS!!!
.50 5,8,9 2,3 5,6,7,12 2,4 $1 1,2,9 3,5 3,4,5,7,9 2 $54 total...
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"A person who saw no important difference between the fire outside a Neandrathal's cave and a working thermo-nuclear reactor might tell you that junk bonds and derivatives BOTH serve to energize capital" - Nathan Israel
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