Best current Derby future odds

[Dunbar]

TheGreek has odds up today for the first time since before Pool 3. Here's what they have now. The first number is the odds at TheGreek; the 2nd number is the horse's closing odds in Pool 3

Charitable Man* 40.5, 45.7
Chocolate Candy 28.5, 18.9
Desert Party 22.5, 16.1
Dunkirk 7.25, 11.5

Friesan Fire 12.15, 8.4
Giant Oak 52.5, 53.7
Hold Me Back* 25.5, 24.0
I Want Revenge 4.25, 4.8

Mafaaz* 40.5, 73.7
Musket Man* 25.5, 25.6

Old Fashioned 15.25, 12.5
Papa Clem 52.5, 47.1
Pioneerof the Nile 10.15, 9.6
Quality Road 8.45, 6.1
Regal Ransom* 32.5, 42.4

Terrain* 38.5, 47.4


Win Willy* 20.5, 16.5
Mutuel Field("All Others") 4.25, 17.4**

**TheGreek's "All Others" includes Theregoesjojo, Flying Private, Imperial Council, and Take the Points.

What's striking is the difference in the "All Others" odds. Some of that difference can be attributed to Theregoesjojo being included in TheGreek's "All Others". It was only after Pool 3 closed that it was announced that Theregoesjojo would run in the BlueGrass, greatly increasing the chance he'll make it to the starting gate for the Derby. Theregoesjojo is offered at 40-1 at Bodog and 30-1 at WSEX, but even if you say jojo has a 15-1 chance to win the Derby and subtract that from TheGreek's "All Others", it would only move TheGreek's "All Others" odds to 6.8-1. Still way below Pool 3's 17.4-1. The lower odds on "All Others" is somehow made up with higher odds elsewhere--the vig/takeout for TheGreek's odds line is 15%.

Also, it looks like Quality Road's quarter crack has been factored into TheGreek's odds. Otherwise they wouldn't be offering 8.45-1, while offering just 4.25-1 on IWR and 7.25-1 on Dunkirk.

In the absence of Pinnacle, TheGreek has emerged as the leading site for horse futures. World Sports Exchange has better odds on just 2 of those horses: Dunkirk at 8-1 and IWR at 9-2. Bodog also has the best odds on just 2 horses: Desert Party at 25-1 and Hold Me Back at 30-1.

Using the best odds at TheGreek, Bodog, and WSEX (including the 4.25-1 for "All Others" at TheGreek), you get a line with 12.7% effective takeout. If Pinnacle had a line up, the overall effective takeout would probably be below 10% by now.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Going into today's races, futures have shifted a bit. Here's the best I can find: (unless otherwise noted, these are the odds at TheGreek.)

Charitable Man* 40.5
Chocolate Candy 20.5
Desert Party 22.5
Dunkirk 8 (WSEX)
Friesan Fire 9.25
Giant Oak 52.5
Hold Me Back* 30 (Bodog)
I Want Revenge 4.65
Mafaaz* 40.5
Musket Man* 25.5
Old Fashioned 16.15
Papa Clem 40 (Bodog)
Pioneerof the Nile 10.15
Quality Road 8.85
Regal Ransom* 35.5
Terrain* 38.5
Win Willy* 22.5
Mutuel Field("All Others") 4.65

Odds have dropped considerably on Chocolate Candy, Papa Clem and Friesen Fire. Odds have gone up a bit on IWR, QR, Win Willy, and All Others. The effective takeout from this combined line is 13.6%.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Here are the best odds I could find today. Unless otherwise indicated, the best odds were at TheGreek.com.

I Want Revenge ** 5 (Bookmaker.com)
Dunkirk ** 6.25
Quality Road ** 6.25
Friesan Fire ** 8.25
Pioneer of the Nile ** 8.25
Papa Clem ** 15.25
Chocolate Candy ** 18.15
Desert Party ** 24 (Bookmaker.com)
Musket Man ** 28.5
Square Eddie ** 33 (Bookmaker.com)
Hold Me Back ** 35.5
General Quarters ** 38.5
Regal Ransom ** 40.5
West Side Bernie ** 51 (Bookmaker.com)
Flying Private ** 85 (Bodog)
Giant Oak ** 52.5
Mine That Bird ** 65.5
Charitable Man ** 85.5

If these horses were the only ones that could possibly make it to the Derby, the combined odds would represent a 3.3% takeout. So the actual takeout depends on what value you put on "all others" at this point.

As of Apr 12, Wynn's futures had QR at 7-1 and Flying Private at 100-1. (Other Wynn futures were inferior to the list above.)

--Dunbar

PS--I don't know why those asterisks showed up with the names. They aren't in my EXCEL table.

[Dunbar]

Since yesterday, the odds on some of the favs have come down, the odds on some of the longshots have risen:

I Want Revenge 4.85
Dunkirk 6
Quality Road 5.25
Friesan Fire 6.25
Pioneer of the Nile 7.25
Papa Clem 18.15
Chocolate Candy 20.5
Desert Party 22.5
Musket Man 40.5
Square Eddie 40.5
Hold Me Back 30.5
General Quarters 28.5
Regal Ransom 40.5
West Side Bernie 40.5
Flying Private 60.5
Giant Oak 40.5
Mine That Bird 80.5
Charitable Man 85.5
Take The Points 60.5
Atomic Rain 60.5
Advice 40.5

All odds are at TheGreek except Dunkirk's 6-1 which is at World Sports Exchange (wsex.com). CRIS/Bookmaker and Bodog haven't had lines up today.

The above odds have an overall vig of 13.6% plus the chance that a horse not on the list wins the Derby.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I Want Revenge 4.85
Dunkirk 6
Quality Road 5.25
Friesan Fire 6.25
Pioneer of the Nile 7.25
Papa Clem 18.15
Chocolate Candy 20.5
Desert Party 22.5
Musket Man 40.5
Square Eddie 40.5
Hold Me Back 30.5
General Quarters 28.5
Regal Ransom 40.5
West Side Bernie 40.5
Flying Private 60.5
Giant Oak 40.5
Mine That Bird 80.5
Charitable Man 85.5
Take The Points 60.5
Atomic Rain 60.5
Advice 40.5

Changes since yesterday: (Bookmaker and WSEX have their odds back up)

Friesan Fire is now available at 7-1 at Bookmaker. (Bookmaker also had IWR briefly at 5-1 and Dunkirk at 6-1 today, but those were knocked down.

West Side Bernie is available at 51-1 at Bookmaker

Atomic Rain is available at 99-1 at Bookmaker.

Here are the updated best available future odds:

I Want Revenge 4.85
Dunkirk 6 wsex.com
Quality Road 5.25
Friesan Fire 7 Bookmaker
Pioneer of the Nile 7.25
Papa Clem 18.15
Chocolate Candy 20.5
Desert Party 22.5
Musket Man 40.5
Square Eddie 40.5
Hold Me Back 30.5
General Quarters 28.5
Regal Ransom 40.5
West Side Bernie 51 Bookmaker
Flying Private 60.5
Giant Oak 40.5
Mine That Bird 80.5
Charitable Man 85.5
Take The Points 60.5
Atomic Rain 99 Bookmaker
Advice 40.5

Unless otherwise noted, the best odds were at TheGreek. (fwiw, Bodog still has no line up)

The vig from those odds is 11.7% plus the chance that some horse not on the list wins the Derby.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Whoa! Just noticed that 5Dimes has put up some Derby futures. 5Dimes now has the best price on 7 of the 8 lowest odds horses. (all except IWR):

Dunkirk 6.5
Quality Road 6.25
Friesan Fire 8.25
Pioneer of the Nile 8.5
Papa Clem 22
Chocolate Candy 21
Desert Party 26

Combining these future odds with the ones above (and eliminating Giant Oak) results in a vig of 2.8% (plus the remote chance any horse not listed wins the race.)

--Dunbar