Wolfson DEADLY with BOn

[the_fat_man]

Looking at tomorrow's 4th at GP and, per BRIS data, Wolfson clicks at a 50% rate, with a +1.96 ROI, with first time blinkers. This is over 10 instances, and I wonder how far back this data goes.

[blackthroatedwind]

Wolfson, first time blinkers, 5 years.........8 / 28 with a $ 2.09 ROI. For the past 3 years he's 6 for 12 with a $ 3.63 ROI. He's only 1 for 3 over the last year with a 1.53 ROI.

On the turf, for five years, he's 1 for 7 with a $ 0.71 ROI.....and just 0 for 1 in the last 3 years.

[MISTERGEE]

the way you broke down those figures over 1,3, and five years. is there anywhere where sire stats are broken down the same way because I have a feeling that as sires get older their progeny most likely start to get worse. so for example instead of seeing a rating for maybe Gone West over his last 3000 starters we could maybe see it broken down like maybe last 100 starters etc.

[blackthroatedwind]

I have no idea about sire stats.

[JohnGalt1]

As a general rule new sires are bred to the best mares, to see if the offspring are quality.

As time goes on lower quality mares are bred to the sire.

So a Gone West's earlier offspring might be A+, his latter might be a B, for an overall A.

A horse breeder can give a better explanation than this handicapper.

[MISTERGEE]

I agree with all that, but I would like to see if there is a service that breaks it down that way statistically

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE

the way you broke down those figures over 1,3, and five years. is there anywhere where sire stats are broken down the same way because I have a feeling that as sires get older their progeny most likely start to get worse. so for example instead of seeing a rating for maybe Gone West over his last 3000 starters we could maybe see it broken down like maybe last 100 starters etc.

Out of curiosity, why do you think this happens?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by JohnGalt1

As a general rule new sires are bred to the best mares, to see if the offspring are quality.

As time goes on lower quality mares are bred to the sire.

So a Gone West's earlier offspring might be A+, his latter might be a B, for an overall A.

A horse breeder can give a better explanation than this handicapper.

Not exactly true.

A stallion like Dynaformer was standing for 5K and getting a lot of crap mares back in the day when he sired a horse like Blumin Affair.

His book of mares obviously got a ton better as his offspring did much better than expected.

[MISTERGEE]

they probably do start to get worse mares then they did at first, and maybe there is something physical involved just by getting older that I really wouldnt know for sure about. I have also notice that mares best foals are usually within thier first few, their later ones are usually worse

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by pgardn

Out of curiosity, why do you think this happens?

i don't think it does. but perhaps older horses just sire less progeny as they get older, with many going to younger up and comers..er, so to speak. but you'd have to look at a sires % to see if they do in fact tail off.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE

they probably do start to get worse mares then they did at first, and maybe there is something physical involved just by getting older that I really wouldnt know for sure about. I have also notice that mares best foals are usually within thier first few, their later ones are usually worse

i was about to bring up older mares as well..of course, there are exceptions to the rule, but older mares do seem to go down a bit. one has to wonder tho, if it has more to do with the breeders unwillingness to shell out big bucks for a top sire if an older mare has a greater propensity of not carrying to term. or if you have a younger mare who shows a lot of promise-you might send the stud fee money in that direction. buyers probably think older mares don't produce as well, so they might decline to spend as much money in that area as well. so why pay a big stud fee if people sneer down their nose at your mare?

[Bobby Fischer]

begging for blinkers , and you see they got him a gate work
the line probably isn't very accurate for this race, more than generous

could also see a cheap speed horse open up on the field and set a false pace
then the jocks have to have common sense to position closer to the second group

[Pedigree Ann]

Some mares produce foals late in life that as good as those she had earlier (Somethingroyal had Secretariat at 18, Sultry Sun foaled her 5th SW at 25), but many others don't. Mares, IMHO, need to building themselves back up nutritionally and physically after each pregnancy and delivery and if they don't quite make it, each subsequent pregnancy depletes her reserves even more.

With stallions, it is more likely one of a couple of causes that keeps the better proven mares away. Older stallions tend, over time, to have lowered fertility and a mare owner may not want to risk an open year, especially if he needs the income from the sale of her foals. And there is the perception problem; if he is a good sire but no Storm Cat, the mare owner may prefer to try a newer stallion who might just turn into a Storm Cat. Of course, most of the time the newby isn't a Storm Cat and is sometimes a total dud and the mare would have had a better runner with the old proven sire, but the breeder is buying and trying to sell sizzle, not steak.