Current Derby Odds

robfla · #1 05-01-2009, 01:45 PM

1 = 38
2 = 26
3 = 34
4 = 48
5 = 11
6 = 4
7 = 14
8 = 53
9 = 60
10 = 34
11 = 8
12 = 8
13 = 5
14 = 76
15 = 8
16 = 8
17 = 39
18 = 54
19 = 26
20 = 43

MORNING LINES:

1 West Side Bernie (Kelly Breen/Stewart Elliott) 30-1
2 Musket Man (Derek Ryan/Eibar Coa) 20-1
3 Mr. Hot Stuff (Eoin Harty/John Velazquez) 30-1
4 Advice (Todd Pletcher/Rene Douglas) 30-1
5 Hold Me Back (Bill Mott/Kent Desormeaux) 15-1
6 Friesan Fire (Larry Jones/Gabriel Saez) 5-1
7 Papa Clem (Gary Stute/Rafael Bejarano) 20-1
8 Mine That Bird (Bennie Woolley/Calvin Borel) 50-1
9 Join in the Dance (Todd Pletcher/Chris DeCarlo) 50-1
10 Regal Ransom (Saeed bin Suroor/Alan Garcia) 30-1
11 Chocolate Candy (Jerry Hollendorfer/Mike Smith) 20-1
12 General Quarters (Tom McCarthy/Julien Leparoux) 20-1
13 I Want Revenge (Jeff Mullins/Joe Talamo) 3-1
14 Atomic Rain (Kelly Breen/Joe Bravo) 50-1
15 Dunkirk (Todd Pletcher/Edgar Prado) 4-1
16 Pioneerof the Nile (Bob Baffert/Garrett Gomez) 4-1
17 Summer Bird (Tim Ice/Chris Rosier) 50-1
18 Nowhere to Hide (Nick Zito/Shaun Bridgmohan) 50-1
19 Desert Party (Saeed bin Suroor/Ramon Dominguez) 15-1
20 Flying Private (D. Wayne Lukas/Robby Albarado) 50-1

I am very surprised at some of the odds. I did figure Choc Candy would be the "wise guy " horse. Very surprised with GQ and HMB

tjfla · #2 05-01-2009, 01:47 PM

Summer Bird getting some play

Desert Party and Musket Man down to 26/1. Me LIKE

Holland Hacker · #3 05-01-2009, 01:48 PM

I was just going to post if any one could provide the "early" odds for the derby wagering.

Kind of bummed that Fresian Fire is the favorite, I was hoping to get upwards of 6 - 1 on him.

I sure it will change a lot over the next 28 or so hours.

tjfla · #4 05-01-2009, 01:49 PM

IWR will still be the favorite as soon as the money starts rolling in

Buckpasser · #5 05-01-2009, 01:49 PM

The two Godolphin runners are worth a wager at this price. POTN also is at a high price. Remains to be seen if they stay that way.

kgar311 · #6 05-01-2009, 02:32 PM

FYI - General Quarters is a polyrat and 8-1 is a complete joke, the horse should be like 50-1

Dunbar · #7 05-01-2009, 03:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by robfla

1 = 38
2 = 26
3 = 34
4 = 48
5 = 11
6 = 4
7 = 14
8 = 53
9 = 60
10 = 34
11 = 8
12 = 8
13 = 5
14 = 76
15 = 8
16 = 8
17 = 39
18 = 54
19 = 26
20 = 43

I am very surprised at some of the odds. I did figure Choc Candy would be the "wise guy " horse. Very surprised with GQ and HMB

You shouldn't be surprised. The odds this early have very little meaning. There's almost no chance that IWR will go at 5-1 and Dunkirk at 8-1.

The closing tote odds will be much closer to the current best futures than to the miniscule amount of early betting. Here were the best futures as of a few hours ago:

W.Side Bernie 45-1
Musket Man 25-1
Mr Hot Stuff 35-1
Advice 35-1
Hold Me Back 25-1
Friesan Fire 5-1
Papa Clem 18-1
Mine That Bird 99-1
Join in the Dance 99-1
Regal Ransom 17-1
Choc Candy 18-1
Gen Quarters 25-1
I Want Revenge 3-1
Atomic Rain 90-1
Dunkirk 9-2
POTN 5-1
SummerBird 45-1
NowhereHide 99-1
Desert Party 16-1
Fly Private 90-1

(I've adjusted them to a 16% takeout.)

--Dunbar

booner · #8 05-01-2009, 10:37 PM

Just posted on TVG......

Friesian Fire - 9/2
General Quarters - 5/1 (!?!)
I Want Revenge - 6/1
Dunkirk - 8/1
Chocolate Candy - 9/1
Pioneerof The Nile - 10/1

VOL JACK · #9 05-01-2009, 10:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by booner

Just posted on TVG......

Friesian Fire - 9/2
General Quarters - 5/1 (!?!)
I Want Revenge - 6/1
Dunkirk - 8/1
Chocolate Candy - 9/1
Pioneerof The Nile - 10/1

If I get 6-1 on IWR...the ATM at KY Downs will be empty after I get done.

Sightseek · #10 05-01-2009, 10:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

If I get 6-1 on IWR...the ATM at KY Downs will be empty after I get done.

I really doubt that you'll get that on him.

kgar311 · #11 05-01-2009, 11:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by booner

Just posted on TVG......

Friesian Fire - 9/2
General Quarters - 5/1 (!?!)
I Want Revenge - 6/1
Dunkirk - 8/1
Chocolate Candy - 9/1
Pioneerof The Nile - 10/1

Maybe the public still doesnt realize the Bluegrass is a joke ever since they put in polycrap

VOL JACK · #12 05-01-2009, 11:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I really doubt that you'll get that on him.

I doubt it.....but....I didnt think I would have gotten it on Barbaro either.

JJP · #13 05-02-2009, 12:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kgar311

FYI - General Quarters is a polyrat and 8-1 is a complete joke, the horse should be like 50-1

I wasn't aware Tampa was a Poly surface. That's where his top Beyer was run.

VOL JACK · #14 05-02-2009, 12:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JJP

I wasn't aware Tampa was a Poly surface. That's where his top Beyer was run.

Sandthetic

Travis Stone · #15 05-02-2009, 12:58 AM

The Oaks/Derby willpays more accurately represent the Derby betting.

I believe the early odds are via local wagering only and the Blue Grass winner and when Pat Day was riding any horse he was on are always bet.

robfla · #16 05-02-2009, 05:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar

You shouldn't be surprised. The odds this early have very little meaning. There's almost no chance that IWR will go at 5-1 and Dunkirk at 8-1.

The closing tote odds will be much closer to the current best futures than to the miniscule amount of early betting. Here were the best futures as of a few hours ago:

W.Side Bernie 45-1
Musket Man 25-1
Mr Hot Stuff 35-1
Advice 35-1
Hold Me Back 25-1
Friesan Fire 5-1
Papa Clem 18-1
Mine That Bird 99-1
Join in the Dance 99-1
Regal Ransom 17-1
Choc Candy 18-1
Gen Quarters 25-1
I Want Revenge 3-1
Atomic Rain 90-1
Dunkirk 9-2
POTN 5-1
SummerBird 45-1
NowhereHide 99-1
Desert Party 16-1
Fly Private 90-1

(I've adjusted them to a 16% takeout.)

--Dunbar

as it has been the last several years, yesterday's odds are not too far off of today's current odds

1 =30
2 =19
3 = 25
4 =45
5 =12
6 =7/2
7 =13
8 = 45
9 = 45
10 = 22
11= 9
12 = 9
13 = XXX
14 =50
15 = 6
16 = 6
17 = 40
18 = 40
19 =15
20 =40

Choc Candy, and GQ holding sway at 9:1 each, with Dunkirk and POTN lowered just a bit...Hold Me Back same as yesterday

kgar311 · #17 05-02-2009, 09:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JJP

I wasn't aware Tampa was a Poly surface. That's where his top Beyer was run.

What was that JJP??? How much money did you lose on this rat

Dunbar · #18 05-05-2009, 05:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by robfla

as it has been the last several years, yesterday's odds are not too far off of today's current odds

1 =30
2 =19
3 = 25
4 =45
5 =12
6 =7/2
7 =13
8 = 45
9 = 45
10 = 22
11= 9
12 = 9
13 = XXX
14 =50
15 = 6
16 = 6
17 = 40
18 = 40
19 =15
20 =40

Choc Candy, and GQ holding sway at 9:1 each, with Dunkirk and POTN lowered just a bit...Hold Me Back same as yesterday

You were right. The early odds were pretty good estimators of the final odds. I especially didn't expect GQ to stay low. And while Dunkirk's odds dropped to 5.2-1 from the early 8-1, some of that was due to IWR's scratch.

--Dunbar