5/2: Churchill Downs (6th-11th)

[Kasept]

Track may be more difficult to harrow into good/fast territory today as rain may continue off and on all afternoon. Remarkable job Friday as Butch Lehr's crew utilized every trick in the book getting surface from slop to fast by Oaks. Suggestion to stay open to fair oval proved out, as frontrunners only had an edge in the first couple of main track events before rallying runners got into photos as day wore on. Rachel Alexandra performance was one for the ages, as the insanely talented filly swiped the Orchids in near record time under a hand ride. She only started to really run when Borel let he have her head after the wire. It was amazing, and the only performance I could think of recently like it was Point Given's Belmont win.

Doubt Derby produces any kind of comparable run, with a myriad of questions hanging over virtually every major runner. My positive view of Quality Road coming into this race left me with no real heartfelt opinion on a single horse for the rose run, so my approach will be scattershot. In terms of order of preference as of Derby morning, I'd present this way:

1. Chocolate Candy
2. Friesan Fire
3. Regal Ransom
4. Mr. Hot Stuff
5. Hold Me Back

Hope everyone enjoyed "At the Races" coverage of Derby... Oaks-Derby recap Monday! Good luck to everybody today and always.


CHURCHILL DOWNS


PRE-SCRATCHES


6th: 75th Churchill Downs (Gr. II), 4+, 7f (P6, P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #3 Kodiak Cowboy 8-5
Next Best: #9 Sok Sok 5-2
Best Value: #8 Silver Edition 12-1
Super Add: #6 Accredit 8-1


7th: 54th Eight Belles (Gr. III), 3yo-F, 7.5f (P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #1 Just Jenda 4-1
Best Value: #10 Auspicious 9-2
Next Best: #4 Four Gifts 3-1
Super Add: #7 Loveyou Everybody 15-1


8th: 24th Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (Gr. II), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #2 Visit 7-2
Best Value: #1 Lemon Chiffon 6-1
Next Best: #7 Ballymore Lady 9-2
Super Add: #3 Tizaqueena 8-1


9th: 23rd Humana Distaff (Gr. I), F&M-4+, 7f (P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #9 Game Face 2-1
Best Value: #7 Royale Michelle 10-1
Next Best: #3 Informed Decision 9-5
Super Add: #5 Secret Gypsy 7-2


10th: 23rd Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (Gr. I), 3+, 9f-T ((P4, P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #6 Einstein 2-1
Best Value: #9 Zambezi Sun 10-1
Next Best: #4 Court Vision 7-2
Super Add: #3 Proudinsky 6-1


11th: 135th Kentucky Derby (Gr. I), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD, $1 Super)

Best Value: #11 Chocolate Candy 20-1: Candy Ride colt should relish trip, surface; sharp pre-race work..
Most Likely: #6 Friesan Fire 5-1: Grudgingly respect solid A.P. Indy that may own big tactical edge..
Exotics Use: #5 Hold Me Back 15-1; #10 Regal Ransom 30-1
Super Add: #1 West Side Bernie 30-1; #3 Mr. Hot Stuff 30-1


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-2
9: 3-7-9
10: 3-4-6-9
11: 3-5-6-10-11-15

2x3x4x6 = 144 x .50 = $72


<$300 P6 Play:

6: 3-6-8-9
7: 1
8: 1-2
9: 3-7-9
10: 6
11: 3-5-6-10-11-15

4x1x2x3x1x6 = 144 x $2 = $288


Good luck!
Steve

[elturko]

kasept, tanks for all you valuable plays, all the time and countles hours you give to us all here .... good luck to everybody.... john henry is elturko

[atolunch]

Steve,

Thanks as always for your insights and inputs. I really enjoyed your daily updates from the Track this week.

Quick question, for the Derby, you use West Side Bernie in the exotics, but do not use him in the P4, using Dunkirk who wasn't mentioned instead. Was that intentional, and assuming it was, guess you like Kirk a little, but no love for IWR or POTN?

Best of luck with the plays, and rest assured I'll lift a Mint Juliep in your honor tomorrow!

Race 8
Fiddy Cent Pick Foh
1,3,5
4,8,9
2,6,8
5,6,7,10,14
$67.50

Had to change the ticket after the IWR scratch. Going to lean heavily on Papa Clem with a little Friesan Fire in pick 3's and doubles.

[Thoroughbred Fan]

$1 Trifecta 13,15,16
WT,1,6,7,13,15,16,19
WT,1,5,6,7,10,12,13,15,16,17,19
$162.00

$1 Trifecta 15
WT,1,6,7,13,16,19
WT,1,5,6,7,10,11,13,16,17,19
$54.00

$50 WP 15
$100.00

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Race 8
Fiddy Cent Pick Foh
1,3,9
4,7,8,9
2,6,7,8
5,6,7,10,13,14
$144

1,3,6,7,10,11 w/ 3,9 w/ 2,3,4,9 w/ 13,15,19

[downtown denny]

Steve,
Great 2 weeks! The Triple Crown is going to be an amazing 5 week run this year. Best of luck on Derby Day.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by atolunch

Steve,

Thanks as always for your insights and inputs. I really enjoyed your daily updates from the Track this week.

Quick question, for the Derby, you use West Side Bernie in the exotics, but do not use him in the P4, using Dunkirk who wasn't mentioned instead. Was that intentional, and assuming it was, guess you like Kirk a little, but no love for IWR or POTN?

Best of luck with the plays, and rest assured I'll lift a Mint Juliep in your honor tomorrow!

Think Bernie is only capable of exotic involvement, and will cover the non-value types (Revenge, Dunkirk) in multis and play against them in race looking for chaotic result. Depending on price and track condition, will key one or two like Choco. Candy, Friesan Fire, Regal Ransom, etc., with rest of the horses above, and spot play big price win bet on Mr. Hot Stuff or similar at 30-1 or more.

Thanks for the kind words. G/L today!

Originally Posted by elturko

kasept, tanks for all you valuable plays, all the time and countles hours you give to us all here .... good luck to everybody.... john henry is elturko

Thx Turko! Always my pleasure... G/L today!

Originally Posted by downtown denny

Steve,
Great 2 weeks! The Triple Crown is going to be an amazing 5 week run this year. Best of luck on Derby Day.

Denny,

Thanks very much... Had a great fortnight here and hoped everyone enjoyed the Derby Week shows as much as I did. Not sure anything the next 5 weeks can top what we saw yesterday from Rachel Alexandra.

G/L today!

[jwkniska]

Race 6 - 75th running of the $250,000 ADDED CHURCHILL DOWNS (GII)/PICK 6 BEGINS (CARRYOVER $137,981)

No Changes

Race 7- 54TH RUNNING OF THE $100,000 EIGHT BELLES (GIII)

SCRATCH #9 Laragh

Race 8 - 24TH RUNNING OF THE $200,000 CHURCHILL DISTAFF TURF MILE


SCRATCH #6 Sugar Mint

Race 9 - 23RD RUNNING OF THE $300,000 HUMANA DISTAFF (GI)

No Changes

Race 10 -23RD RUNNING OF THE $500,000-ADDED WOODFORD RESERVE TURF CLASSIC (GI)

No Changes

Race 11 -- 135th RUNNING OF THE $2,000,000-ADDED KENTUCKY DERBY (GI) / Super Hi-5

NO CHANGES

[fpsoxfan]

I hope everyone has a fun and profitable Derby Day. I'll be hanging out with my usual horse racing crew. Let's bring all of these horses home safely.
Good Luck everyone!

Pat

[geeker2]

Thanks Steve..hope you crush

[danedelen]

I want revenge just scratched.
Good luck everyone! Hopefully I can get lucky, for a change. Steve thanks for everthing you do. Your knowledge of the game and picks are the best. Unfortunately for me you could give me the exact order of finish and I would find some way to screw it up. Its been atleast a year since I've scored so I guess I am due.

[South Beach Luv]

Thanks Steve, enjoy your day off

[Payson Dave]

Steve,
Just wanted to say that imho yours shows this past week have been outstanding...good luck at the windows today

[booner]

Great shows all week Steve. Enjoyed them immensely.

Good luck and enjoy the day!!!

[Mike]

6th: Accredit
7th: Lady's Laughter
8thawn After Dawn
9th:Royal Michelle
10th:Thorn Song
11th: Chocolate Candy to win; three horse exacta box of Candy/Dunkirk/Regal Ransom; three horse tri box of Candy/Dunkirk/Regal Ransom

Uh I'm nervous a little

[King Glorious]

Friesan Fire and Pioneer in the top two spots. Underneath that I have Dunkirk, Papa Clem, Desert Party, and Musket Man. Can't see playing any other horses at all.

[Kasept]

Boon, Dave, dan, geek...

Thx re: ATR. Really tried to make it a special week and every minute count.

G/L to all in Derby. 135!