Biancone, cold with 2 year olds, my theory why

You know one of th biggest shocks to me this meet has been that patrick Biancone has been completely stone cold as ice with his babies. One thing you could always count on with Biancone was that he would send out very fast expensive babies who were all cranked up and ready to roll. They have been beyond horrible. Yesterday a very well bred and expensive NY bred two year old debuted and was just awful. All of his babies have been except City Snitch who won very nicely on opening day(he was a 2nd time starter). So last night in reviewing what had been going on up here in hopes of reversing some of these terrible narrow losses I've been taking up here I got to looking at Binacone and why he was so uncharacteristically awful. The answer why to me stood out like a sore thumb upon review.
In past years he prepped all of his stable at saratoga's legendary Oklahoma training track. Very deep and safe, its been utilized by guys like Shug, Mott, Zito, Pletcher, and Biancone for the last decade to get horses ready to roll. Those guys arrive when it opens in the spring and stay until fall. This year patrick did something different, a look at ALL of his babies showed that he chose to get them all ready to run at Turfway park with its polytrack. Only City Snitch has won, and he had raced at CD, where he lost at a short price and then was sent to saratoga for his works before his win. Its pretty obvious guys that the Polytrack preperation has left his babies without speed and stamina. Its not even debatable unless you wanna contend that ALL of his babies are just no good this year.
It simply looks as if those(including myself) who feel that polytrack is not even a distant cousin of dirt as far as how it translates to dirt form have a point. I'm going to declare right now that I will bet that Biancone's babies will start running and firing in their 2nd starts up here. Also look to play his firsters as the meet goes on after they have worked at the training track up here a few times. The only winner he had fit that profile(City Snitch) and I'm extermely confident that there will be some nice priced two year old winners to follow when they run back up here later in the meet.
Don't say i didn't warn you when this starts happening.

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Hmmmmm... I was kind of wondering the same thing, because I have been betting all of his babies wondering when he will heat up. Very interesting theory, and you might be dead on. I hope you are, because it's an angle I'm going to follow.

Da Hoss, in about ten minutes the offical polytrack cheeleader will come on and bash me, I don't care. I didn't set out last night to bash polytrack, I set out to do a thorough review and explore some angles and possible theories and explanations about what had been going on up here.
Biancone's babies have abeen shockingly awful. One thing guys who follow patrick know is that his babies NEVER have a shortage of speed, to dsay the least. Other than City Snitch(who got this ball rolling in my head when i noted he also was beaten at a short price in his debut, but obviously had a tightener race in that effort and then importantly worked up here after that race instead of Turfway) his babies have been atrocious. I mean the closet he came was with a 750 grand two year old in training purchase who lost a NY bred race, ouch. I got to looking at the pattern of their works and saw that the Poly had to be the answer. Its the only thing hes done differently. I'm willing to bet strongly that as the meet goes on that some of those disappointing firsters come back and fire 2nd time out and that some of his future firsters who have had 2-3 works up here will run much better than the firsters who came straight off polytrack.

[Scav]

Training track is about two seconds slower, workout wise right?

[GenuineRisk]

Oracle, I think it's a perfectly valid statement you make, and I'd be surprised if even the Polytrack fans argue that a horse should run exactly the same on Polytrack as it does on dirt. I myself look at it as there are now three different surfaces in racing-- dirt, grass and Polytrack. The question for Polytrack's future, I think, will be whether breeders will start breeding horses with a predisposition to run their best on Polytrack, as they do with dirt horses and with grass horses.

In a perfect world, I'm with you in that I wish tracks would spend the time and money to lay in a deep dirt track so horses wouldn't be running on the racing version of pavement. But, though I don't know, I imagine it takes a lot to maintain a deep dirt track, and as the recent ConEd fiasco here in NYC reminds me, humans aren't so good at the maintenance thing until disaster hits.

But either way, it's an excellent angle to play at Saratoga... thanks for sharing it!

Originally Posted by Scav

Training track is about two seconds slower, workout wise right?

Correct Scav.

[2 Dollar Bill]

Very Nice Thread.. and some Wonderful ideas & thoughts... I know that in (our Spa Contest) I have played each of his 2 year olds.. and keep looking for one to win.. He is getting bet, so the public likes his young horses. There are soooooo many questions about the poly track, and just another thing to think about when you read the form. Thank you for sharing your thoughts & I'll keep in my mind your thoughts about second time starters.. who may pay a price !

[SentToStud]

Great theory.

Be interesting to look at the winter Turfway meet. Check to see if Firsters and Lay-Off horses won at a FAR less-than-expected rate. That would tend to confirm the hypothesis.

My laboratory is already running at capacity. Who's got time? Anyone house-bound due to recent surgery?

[SentToStud]

Last thought..... how in the world can scientists clone goats and not be able to find a way for horses to run safely on dirt?

[GenuineRisk]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

Great theory.

Be interesting to look at the winter Turfway meet. Check to see if Firsters and Lay-Off horses won at a FAR less-than-expected rate. That would tend to confirm the hypothesis.

My laboratory is already running at capacity. Who's got time? Anyone house-bound due to recent surgery?

Darnit; my brother the statistician is getting married tomorrow... so much for saying to him, "Hey, you want a little side project...?" I think his wife would have issues with it...

Originally Posted by SentToStud

Last thought..... how in the world can scientists clone goats and not be able to find a way for horses to run safely on dirt?

They can. Euro can bash me all he wants about hearsay but I can give you ten names that most would recognize in the business who have all said that these tracks could just lay down a safe dirt surface for less money than polyjunk. Bottom line is that polytrack is nothing but a marketing ploy, nothing more nor less. Look at size of the contracts involved. And of course noone who helps land a contract for a company is ever gonna get a christmas card stuffed with bills or a no show job down the road will they? Nah, no way that could happen.
Bottom line is that its not a suitable replacement for dirt racing and not everyone is ready to toss in the towel on hundereds of years of breeding and just start over again with the breed to try and breed horses who excel on wax coated tire shreds. Its a joke really.

I was always indifferent on the polytrack debate... I dont consider myself informed enough on the surface to have a true opinion. But after reading this, it def becomes an intriguing topic. Very interesting Oracle.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

Great theory.

Be interesting to look at the winter Turfway meet. Check to see if Firsters and Lay-Off horses won at a FAR less-than-expected rate. That would tend to confirm the hypothesis.

My laboratory is already running at capacity. Who's got time? Anyone house-bound due to recent surgery?

someone call my name?

[GenuineRisk]

Originally Posted by oracle80

They can. Euro can bash me all he wants about hearsay but I can give you ten names that most would recognize in the business who have all said that these tracks could just lay down a safe dirt surface for less money than polyjunk. Bottom line is that polytrack is nothing but a marketing ploy, nothing more nor less. Look at size of the contracts involved. And of course noone who helps land a contract for a company is ever gonna get a christmas card stuffed with bills or a no show job down the road will they? Nah, no way that could happen.
Bottom line is that its not a suitable replacement for dirt racing and not everyone is ready to toss in the towel on hundereds of years of breeding and just start over again with the breed to try and breed horses who excel on wax coated tire shreds. Its a joke really.

What's the difference in maintenance costs on Polytrack vs. dirt? Is there any data on that yet?

[Scurlogue Champ]

Originally Posted by oracle80

They can. Euro can bash me all he wants about hearsay but I can give you ten names that most would recognize in the business who have all said that these tracks could just lay down a safe dirt surface for less money than polyjunk. Bottom line is that polytrack is nothing but a marketing ploy, nothing more nor less. Look at size of the contracts involved. And of course noone who helps land a contract for a company is ever gonna get a christmas card stuffed with bills or a no show job down the road will they? Nah, no way that could happen.
Bottom line is that its not a suitable replacement for dirt racing and not everyone is ready to toss in the towel on hundereds of years of breeding and just start over again with the breed to try and breed horses who excel on wax coated tire shreds. Its a joke really.

Why not just stop the breeding practices that have made our horses so fragile? Then they could probably run on asphalt and jump over cars while racing.

[slotdirt]

Man, would I love to see some paragraphs right about now.

If they run awful as 2 year olds and stay sound I say fine. When they are 3 and start making the big step up we will see. Two year olds should be at a testing stage anyway. But if the stuff totally screws up their muscle memory by making them stride inefficiently at an early age and it sticks, then its a problem.

Although your statements are solid (and health of the horse a priority), I dont know I would want to take the risk as an owner. Like its been said, he trains some very expensive babies... should be interesting to see if this holds true.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Correct Scav.

I knew it, that f'n Zito worked that Grand Slam colt(3 horse) the other day 49.6 and I looked at it a split second and passed, played a couple horses that are still running.....Still salty about this one

[ceejay]

Interesting analysis, Oracle.

[Nostradamus]

This is just somebody who doesn't like polytrack. City Snitch won because he was a very good horse with a race under his belt, not because he went up to Oklahoma. There are a million reasons why he might not be doing as well with two year old first starters (if that is even factually correct). The weather has been 90 degrees the entire meet and the track surface has been all over the place. He might just have two year olds that haven't liked the weather or he might have learned a lesson that getting 2yr olds cranked up for their first start is moronic. I see Pletcher has had a ton of success in the classic races with this brilliant way of training. Asmussen too.

If you bet on heavy favorite 2yr old horses at Saratoga you are insane.